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1Clear out junk files and repair common Windows errors2Scan for outdated or missing drivers - takes under a minute3Repair Windows errors before they cause bigger problemsTo compare Bitcoin with Treasuries, first decide whether you mean Bitcoin’s realized price return versus a Treasury yield quote, or the return an investor actually earned from holding each investment. Those are different comparisons: a Treasury constant-maturity yield is an annualized market quotation, not the historical return from owning a Treasury over a chosen period.
Choose the comparison you want to make
Bitcoin performance versus a Treasury yield hurdle
This asks whether Bitcoin’s realized return over a selected period exceeded the annualized yield quoted for a selected Treasury maturity. It can be a useful benchmark comparison, but it is not a comparison of two equivalent realized returns. Label it accordingly.
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Bitcoin investment return versus Treasury investment return
This asks what an investor would have earned by holding each investment over the same dates. For the Treasury side, specify an actual security or a suitable Treasury total-return series that accounts for both price changes and coupon income. A constant-maturity yield quote does not provide that holding-period return. Treasury explains that its CMT yields are read from the daily par yield curve: Treasury interest rate statistics FAQ.
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Calculate Bitcoin’s return over the chosen dates
For a USD Bitcoin price series, the simple holding-period price return is:
(ending price ÷ starting price) − 1
Identify the price source, currency, start and end dates, and observation times. A Bitcoin price is not a single universal observation: sources and endpoint conventions can differ. For example, an SEC-hosted filing describes the CME CF Bitcoin Reference Rate as a USD rate calculated at 4 p.m. ET from trading activity during the 3–4 p.m. ET observation window; constituent platforms may change: SEC-hosted Nasdaq filing describing the benchmark.
Annualizing a multi-year Bitcoin return
If you need a compound annual growth rate for a holding period longer than one year, use:
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(ending value ÷ starting value)^(1 ÷ elapsed years) − 1
State the elapsed-time convention. CAGR compresses the full path into one annualized figure; it does not show the volatility, drawdowns, or timing of gains and losses along the way.
Understand what a Treasury yield quote measures
The U.S. Treasury’s par yield curve is estimated from indicative bid-side quotations for recently auctioned securities. The quotations are obtained from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York at or near 3:30 p.m. ET on each trading day; they are not transaction prices. Treasury estimates the curve using the monotone convex method, which replaced the former method on December 6, 2021: Treasury daily par yield curve data.
A constant-maturity Treasury (CMT) yield is read from that theoretical par curve at a fixed maturity. It may not match the yield on any one specific Treasury security. CMT figures are bond-equivalent yields: simple annualized quotations for securities paying semiannual interest, not effective annual yields or APYs. Treasury gives this conversion from a decimal CMT yield I to an effective annual yield: (1 + I/2)² − 1. Convert only if your comparison requires an effective annual convention, and disclose the convention you use. See the Treasury FAQ on interest-rate statistics.
Align the dates and conventions
For a reproducible comparison, make the Bitcoin and Treasury observations correspond as closely as possible to the same start and end dates. Record the currency, maturity, price or yield source, endpoint rule, and whether figures are holding-period returns, annualized returns, or quoted yields.
- Treasury par-curve observations are published for trading days and use indicative quotations collected at or near 3:30 p.m. ET.
- The cited CME CF Bitcoin Reference Rate uses a 4 p.m. ET rate based on a 3–4 p.m. ET observation window.
- If a selected date is not a Treasury trading day, state how you choose the nearest available Treasury observation rather than silently treating it as a same-time quote.
These observation conventions are not identical. Bitcoin can move substantially between price observations, so another Bitcoin benchmark or endpoint rule may change the measured return.
Independent reader supportYour contribution helps us test, update, and keep practical guides available for everyone.Choose nominal or inflation-adjusted Treasury yields consistently
A nominal Treasury yield is not adjusted for inflation. For an inflation-sensitive comparison, a real Treasury yield may be a more relevant benchmark: Treasury’s real par curve is based on TIPS quotations and its series begins January 2, 2004. Specify whether the comparison is nominal or inflation-adjusted, and apply a consistent inflation treatment to the Bitcoin side rather than comparing a real yield with an unadjusted nominal return. Treasury publishes the real curve alongside its daily Treasury real yield curve data.
What the comparison does—and does not—show
A return-versus-yield comparison can show whether Bitcoin’s past price performance cleared a stated yield benchmark over the selected period. It does not show that the two investments offered comparable risk, that an investor earned the quoted yield over the whole period, or that either will perform similarly in the future.
If you are evaluating investment quality, add risk measures calculated over the same dates, such as realized volatility and maximum drawdown. Do not call a simple return comparison risk-adjusted; a risk-adjusted comparison requires a stated risk-free-rate convention and calculation.
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Outbyte PC Repair FREERepair Windows errors before they cause bigger problemsFix Now →Outbyte Driver Updater FREEFix the driver behind crashes, sound loss and screen glitchesFind Drivers →A Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago working paper published in August 2026 estimates time-varying Bitcoin betas and reports that, in its specifications, Bitcoin betas for Treasury bond returns were not distinguishable from zero. That is a result tied to the paper’s data and methods, not a universal conclusion about Bitcoin’s relationship with Treasuries: Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago working paper.
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