Scientists use computer climate models to test whether plausible versions of a distant planet could sustain liquid water at the surface. They vary uncertain properties—such as atmosphere, oceans, rotation and orbit—then compare the resulting climates and use the findings to decide which planets merit further observation. A simulation can identify promising possibilities; it cannot confirm that a planet is habitable or inhabited.
What does the habitable zone tell scientists?
The habitable zone is the range of distances from a star where a planet might have temperatures suitable for liquid water on its surface. Its position depends on the star. Being in that zone makes a planet worth investigating, but does not show that it has water, a suitable atmosphere or life. NASA explains the concept in its overview of the habitable zone.
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The zone is a useful first screen, not a complete test of whether a world could support life. A 2026 review notes that a planet inside the zone could still be uninhabitable, while a potentially suitable world could lie outside it. The question climate simulations address is more specific: under which plausible conditions could this planet have a climate that permits surface liquid water?
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Researchers start with what observations establish about the planet and its star, then make explicit assumptions about properties that remain unknown. A general circulation model represents interactions among the atmosphere, surface, oceans and incoming stellar energy. It calculates how those components could shape climate across the planet and over time.
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Depending on the study, scientists may vary:
- Atmosphere: which gases are present and in what amounts. Greenhouse gases and clouds affect how energy is absorbed, transported and released.
- Surface and water: ocean depth, size and salinity, along with the distribution of land and water.
- Rotation and orbit: how quickly the planet spins and details such as orbital eccentricity, tilt and configuration.
These factors work together. A planet receiving an Earth-like amount of sunlight does not necessarily have an Earth-like climate: atmospheric composition, water and surface geography, rotation and orbital geometry can all alter the result.
Why run many scenarios instead of one?
For a distant planet, key inputs may be uncertain or entirely unknown. A single run would answer only what happens under one chosen set of assumptions. Researchers instead run multiple scenarios or ensembles, changing inputs to see which conditions could permit surface water and which assumptions drive a different outcome.
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An ensemble is a set of model experiments, not a collection of observations. Comparing its results helps researchers map conditional possibilities without presenting any one assumed scenario as a forecast of the planet’s actual climate. Some teams also use statistical emulation: after running computationally expensive climate simulations, they fit a statistical model to estimate outcomes across additional combinations of inputs, with uncertainty.
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What did simulations of Proxima Centauri b test?
Proxima Centauri b, a planet orbiting the nearest star to the Sun, offers a concrete example of this approach. In a study described by NASA, researchers used ROCKE-3D, a climate model adapted from the GISS Model E2 Earth general circulation model and coupled to a dynamic ocean. They conducted 43 simulations and selected 18 published experiments, varying atmospheric greenhouse gases, ocean depth, size and salinity, the land-to-water ratio, spin and orbit.
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NASA reported a model grid-box resolution of 500 by 620 kilometers. Each run used 44 computing cores and took one to six weeks, depending on the run’s length and computing availability; runs covered 5,000 to 20,000 simulated orbits. These are figures from that particular study, not standard settings or computing requirements for every exoplanet simulation. NASA’s account of the Proxima Centauri b modeling describes the experiments.
The simulations produced a range of scenarios in which liquid water could be retained, showing that the planet could merit follow-up observations under those modeled assumptions. They did not establish that Proxima Centauri b has liquid water. NASA Goddard planetary scientist Anthony Del Genio summarized the distinction: “While our work can’t tell observers if any planet is habitable or not, we can tell them whether a planet is smack in the midrange of good candidates to search further.” The quote appeared in NASA’s January 24, 2020 article.
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How can simulations explore more combinations?
A 2025 study provides another example of combining physical climate simulations with statistical methods. Its abstract reports 93 ROCKE-3D simulations of Earth analogs, varying rotation period, obliquity, orbital eccentricity and longitude of periastron. The authors used Latin hypercube sampling to cover the parameters, then statistical emulation to estimate a habitability metric as a smooth function with uncertainty. This approach helps researchers explore a broader range of possible combinations than they could simulate one by one. The study is described in the Astrophysical Journal abstract.
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How do model results guide observations?
Simulations help researchers prioritize targets and decide what future observations might be most informative. A model can predict climate patterns or atmospheric signals that observers could look for, allowing follow-up work to test or rule out particular scenarios. NASA’s overview explains how climate modeling can help identify promising targets and inform their further characterization.
Observations remain essential. The actual atmosphere, ocean, surface and rotation or orbital properties may not be known well enough to choose among modeled scenarios. Different climate-model physics and parameterizations can also produce different results; the available examples do not establish one model as universally best for every planet type. A simulation is a set of physical calculations under stated assumptions—not a direct view of a planet and not a way to detect life.
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