Scientists do not identify a climate signal by looking at a single wobble or a longer day. They measure Earth’s rotation, estimate how climate-related shifts in ice and water should affect it, and compare that estimate with other known influences—such as the atmosphere, oceans, solid Earth and core—over the same timescale. The result is an estimate of climate’s contribution, not a claim that climate explains every change in rotation.
What does it mean for Earth’s rotation to change?
Earth’s rotation is tracked through several related but distinct quantities. Two central ones are length of day (LOD), which measures changes in spin rate, and polar motion, which describes how the rotation axis moves relative to Earth’s crust. A shift in polar motion is not the same thing as a change in LOD, and neither should be casually described as simply “the axis moving.”
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Space-geodetic observations provide precise records of both. NASA/JPL describes daily measurements of LOD and the spin axis’s position relative to the crust. Researchers use these records to establish what happened; they then combine them with observations of mass change and models of geophysical processes to estimate why.
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How can melting ice or changing water storage affect rotation?
When land ice melts, or water moves between land and ocean, mass is redistributed across the planet. Ice sheets, glaciers, groundwater depletion and changes in terrestrial water storage can all contribute. Moving mass changes Earth’s inertia—how mass is distributed around its rotation axis—and can therefore influence both spin rate and polar motion.
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The effect depends on where the mass moves, not just how much changes. A climate-related contribution is inferred by estimating the rotational effect of observed or reconstructed surface-mass changes and comparing it with the geodetic record. That is why a study can attribute a substantial part of a particular variation to climate without concluding that climate is responsible for all rotation changes.
Land ice and sea ice should not be conflated. NASA explains that melting sea ice does not raise sea level in the way melting land ice does; the two are not interchangeable indicators of mass transfer from continents to oceans.
How do scientists distinguish climate effects from other causes?
Attribution is a comparison across measurements, physical estimates and timescales. Researchers first identify the observed signal—such as an LOD trend or a polar-motion variation—then estimate the effects of relevant drivers. The evidence can include geodetic rotation records, satellite gravity and mass-change observations such as GRACE and GRACE-FO, earlier mass-balance studies, and reconstructions. Models are used to estimate the rotational effects of those mass shifts and competing processes.
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Different causes matter for different quantities and periods. Comparing a century-scale LOD trend with a short-period polar oscillation, for example, would mix unlike signals. The following distinctions help keep the comparison meaningful:
| Contributor | What changes | Where it matters in the attribution |
|---|---|---|
| Ice loss and terrestrial water redistribution | Surface mass shifts between land and ocean or among land areas | Can affect LOD and polar motion; analyzed as interannual or multidecadal variation as well as a trend |
| Atmosphere and oceans | Mass and angular momentum are exchanged with the solid Earth | Important in modeling rotation variability; effects depend on signal and timescale |
| Glacial isostatic adjustment | Solid Earth continues to deform and rise after ancient ice loss | Contributes to long-term polar drift; NASA/JPL’s 2018 historical analysis attributed roughly one-third of twentieth-century polar drift to glacial rebound |
| Mantle and core processes | Internal mass movement and exchanges within Earth | Can contribute to polar motion and rotation changes; the 2024 polar-motion work considers core, mantle and climate-related contributions |
| Lunar tidal friction | Tidal interaction gradually slows Earth’s spin | A contributor to long-term LOD increase, distinct from climate-driven surface-mass redistribution |
| Earthquakes and abrupt solid-Earth redistribution | Mass shifts within the solid Earth | Can affect rotation, but the cited summaries do not quantify its share in the climate-focused estimates discussed here |
These are not all interchangeable explanations. For each estimate, the relevant questions are what was measured, which timescale was analyzed, which mass or angular-momentum reservoir is involved, and whether the contribution comes from direct observation or a modeled estimate. The published summaries discussed here do not provide a complete instrument-by-instrument processing account or a full uncertainty budget for every competing model.
What do the headline climate estimates actually say?
A NASA summary of a 2024 study says melting ice sheets and glaciers, diminishing groundwater and sea-level rise could explain about 90% of the periodic oscillations in polar motion examined. Separately, the 2024 Nature Geoscience study reports that surface-mass redistribution explains about 90% of interannual and multidecadal polar-motion variations, while producing a relatively weak trend in its analysis. Those figures refer to selected variations in polar motion—not to 90% of all changes in Earth’s rotation.
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A 2024 study of climate’s effect on LOD estimates a climate-induced trend of 0.3–1.0 milliseconds per century during the twentieth century, rising to 1.33 ± 0.03 milliseconds per century since 2000. These are estimates of the climate-related component, not the total observed change in day length. A rate stated per century is a trend measure; it does not mean every individual day becomes that amount longer.
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NASA’s 2024 summary also gives a conditional estimate: climate-related lengthening of the day could reach 2.62 milliseconds per century if emissions continue to rise. The same summary gives an average 2.4 milliseconds per century contribution from lunar tidal friction. The climate figure is a scenario-dependent future estimate, whereas the tidal figure is an average contribution; their juxtaposition does not mean climate has already overtaken tides in every observed measure.
Independent reader supportYour contribution helps us test, update, and keep practical guides available for everyone.Why can a long-term drift tell a different story from shorter variations?
A process may account for much of a recurring or multidecadal fluctuation while explaining little of the long-term trend. The 2024 polar-motion analysis is an example: surface-mass redistribution explains about 90% of the interannual and multidecadal variations it examines, yet the study characterizes its contribution to the trend as relatively weak.
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Other long-term influences include the solid Earth’s continuing response to ancient ice loss. NASA/JPL’s 2018 explanation reports that the spin axis drifted about 4 inches (10 centimeters) per year over the twentieth century in the historical analysis it summarizes, with roughly one-third of that drift attributed to glacial rebound. That is a result for that historical polar-drift analysis, not a general rate for all modern polar motion or a measure of LOD.
What can these findings—and the numbers—support?
The evidence supports a physical and quantitative attribution: geodetic records show how rotation changed; satellite and other mass observations help constrain where surface mass moved; and models estimate how that redistribution and other processes affect rotation. It does not support treating a single percentage or trend as a universal answer for every definition of rotation, every period, or every model.
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1Repair Windows errors before they cause bigger problems2Scan for outdated or missing drivers - takes under a minute3Clear out junk files and repair common Windows errorsNor does ice melt mean Earth’s rotation record must always slow. Different processes can push rotation in different directions, and LOD and polar motion respond differently. The useful conclusion is narrower: climate-driven mass redistribution is an important, measurable contributor to some rotation changes, while its share depends on the quantity and timescale being analyzed.
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