Prediction markets let people trade contracts tied to defined future outcomes. A contract’s written rules determine what counts as the outcome, what it pays, which source is used to verify it, and who decides when settlement is final. In a simple binary contract, the price can suggest the market’s current view of the likelihood—but it is neither a guarantee nor the contract’s eventual payout.
What is a prediction market contract?
A prediction market is a venue where people buy and sell contracts whose value depends on a specified event or outcome. The Federal Reserve describes these contracts as options-like. In a common binary structure, a contract pays $1 if its stated outcome occurs and $0 otherwise, although other designs can offer multiple outcomes or partial payouts.
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The details are contract-specific: the event definition and written terms—not a trader’s general understanding of what happened—govern the result. The Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) says customers should receive clear information about a contract’s payout and how, when, and by whom settlement decisions are made.
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For a binary contract priced between $0.01 and $0.99, CME Group gives a useful approximation: a $0.05 price corresponds to about a 5% market-implied likelihood, while $0.95 corresponds to about 95%. The CFTC similarly explains that a contract’s price reflects traders’ perceived probability of the outcome. These prices express the market’s current view; they are not objective odds, a forecast guarantee, or a promise of payment.
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Price is only one part of the decision. Fees, liquidity, and the ability to exit can affect what a trade actually returns. A price near a probability estimate does not remove the possibility of losing the amount paid.
What a binary contract can pay
Suppose a “Yes” contract costs $0.45 and pays $1 if its defined event occurs. If it settles “Yes,” the gross difference between the $1 payout and the purchase price is $0.55 before fees. If it settles “No,” the buyer loses the $0.45 paid, plus any applicable fees. This is a simplified binary example, not a universal payout structure.
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Some contracts combine several yes/no positions, offer multiple choices, or use outcome ranges with partial payouts. Those structures can make the payoff less straightforward; the applicable contract terms specify the amount due for each outcome.
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Can a trader exit before settlement?
Trading does not necessarily mean holding a position until the event is decided. CME says a trader may trade a position multiple times and close it before the event occurs or while it is taking place. The realized result then depends on the exit price and any applicable fees; available liquidity can affect whether and at what price the position can be closed. The initial purchase price alone does not determine the final result if the position is exited early.
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How event contracts are settled
Settlement applies the contract’s written criteria to evidence about the event. The terms determine what qualifies, which source is authoritative, and who makes the determination. Kalshi, for example, says its market team finalizes results after confirming the official outcome and may wait for finalized information from a source agency, such as official league statistics or a government release. Other venues and contracts may use different processes, so check the rules for the specific market.
Clear criteria and reliable, externally checkable source data make it easier to understand how a result will be established. Kalshi’s market-suggestion guidance emphasizes an objective event definition, clear settlement criteria, reliable source data, and a proposed timeframe. A contract based on a person’s discrete conduct may be harder to verify independently and can be more susceptible to influence. In a September 22, 2026 staff advisory, CFTC market-oversight staff warned of heightened manipulation risks for “mention markets” whose settlement turns on conduct that may not be independently generated or externally verifiable.
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Why can a market remain pending after an event?
An event’s apparent end, the end of trading, and final settlement are separate milestones. The displayed trading close time may differ from the determination time, and a market may remain pending while an official source finalizes data or because its rules specify a later determination time.
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Kalshi’s Help Center says most of its markets settle within a few hours after the outcome is known, often within about three hours. That is Kalshi’s general description, not a deadline or promise for every contract or venue; the particular market’s rules and source process control.
What to inspect before trading a contract
Compare the actual rules and trading conditions rather than assuming that contracts with similar headlines work alike. Check:
- Event definition and contract version: Identify the exact outcome being measured and read the current terms.
- Settlement criteria and source: Check what evidence qualifies, which source takes precedence, and who determines the result.
- Determination timing: Distinguish trading close from settlement and look for any stated determination time or source-related conditions.
- Payout structure: Confirm whether the contract is binary, has multiple outcomes, or pays across a range.
- Price, fees, liquidity, and exit options: Consider the full cost and whether the position can be closed at a workable price. More complex outcome structures may attract fewer participants and comparatively lower liquidity.
- Venue rules, oversight, and eligibility: Protections and access depend on the venue and jurisdiction; do not assume rules for one market apply everywhere.
Oversight does not remove trading risk
In the United States, CFTC-regulated exchanges are subject to exchange rulemaking, surveillance, and regulatory oversight intended to deter manipulation and insider trading. The CFTC advises customers to review risks, costs, commissions, penalties, and contract-specific settlement rules, and to trade only with risk capital. Regulation does not eliminate the chance of financial loss or mean that a position will settle immediately.
Enforcement examples illustrate why conflicts and information advantages matter, but do not establish how common misconduct is. In a February 25, 2026 advisory, the CFTC Enforcement Division described a candidate trading on his own candidacy and an individual affiliated with a YouTube channel who likely had advance access to video contents before publication. The advisory said the CFTC has authority to police illegal trading practices on designated contract markets.
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