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AI data centers are increasing demand for high-bandwidth memory (HBM), server DRAM and enterprise SSDs. In response, memory suppliers are directing capacity and investment toward those products, contributing to tighter supply and higher contract prices for memory used in PCs and phones. That can make devices more expensive, but it does not mean every PC or phone will rise in price by the same amount: manufacturers can also absorb costs, change configurations or use existing inventory.
Why data-center AI demand can affect consumer devices
AI systems rely on specialized components, including HBM, a type of high-bandwidth memory used with AI accelerators. PCs and phones generally use different memory products. The connection is not that a phone’s memory chip is simply an AI-server chip in disguise. It is that suppliers make decisions about investment, production capacity and allocation across product lines while demand is growing for high-margin server products.
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TrendForce describes suppliers shifting capacity toward HBM and server applications as consumer-market buyers face tighter availability and cost pressure. At the same time, demand for server DRAM and enterprise SSDs adds pressure in their own product categories. Those forces can affect the availability and contract pricing of conventional DRAM and NAND products that go into consumer devices.
Contract prices are prices negotiated between suppliers and their customers, including device makers. A change in those prices raises or lowers a manufacturer’s component costs; it is not a direct announcement of what a finished laptop or phone must cost in a shop. The manufacturer’s supply agreements, inventory, product design, margins and pricing decisions all influence whether and when a component-cost change reaches buyers.
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DRAM and NAND affect different parts of a device
“Memory” can refer to more than one technology. DRAM is working memory: it holds data a PC or phone needs to access quickly while running software. PC DRAM and mobile DRAM are different product segments, but both are exposed to pressure in the broader DRAM market. NAND flash is used for storage, including SSDs in PCs and storage in phones.
This distinction matters because the parts do different jobs and their prices do not necessarily move together. TrendForce’s September 30, 2026 outlook projected higher fourth-quarter contract prices for both conventional DRAM and NAND Flash, but gave separate ranges for each. It also reported that PC brands were reducing SSD capacity in some mainstream models to limit bill-of-material costs. A buyer may therefore encounter a higher price, less storage at a similar price, or different combinations of price and capacity—not one uniform “memory surcharge.”
HBM is not interchangeable with ordinary PC RAM or phone storage. Its relevance here is the broader supply-and-investment picture, alongside direct growth in server DRAM and enterprise SSD demand. Treating all memory chips as one identical product obscures how the pressure reaches consumer devices.
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What the 2026 forecasts say—and what they do not
Gartner’s 2026 forecast describes a potentially sharp effect on device costs and shipments. Its figures compare year-end 2026 with 2025; they are forecasts, not observed outcomes or a promise about a particular model, retailer or country. TrendForce’s price outlook concerns quarter-over-quarter contract-price changes in the fourth quarter of 2026, not retail price changes for finished devices.
| Measure | Forecast | How to interpret it |
|---|---|---|
| Combined DRAM and SSD prices | Gartner forecast a 130% increase by year-end 2026 compared with 2025. | This is a component-price forecast, not a 130% increase in the price of a PC or phone. |
| PC prices | Gartner projected a 17% increase by year-end 2026 compared with 2025. | A broad forecast; individual models and markets can differ. |
| Smartphone prices | Gartner projected a 13% increase by year-end 2026 compared with 2025. | A broad forecast, not a guaranteed increase for every phone. |
| Worldwide PC shipments | Gartner projected a 10.4% decline in 2026 versus 2025. | A forecast of shipments, not a measurement of every region or retailer’s sales. |
| Worldwide smartphone shipments | Gartner projected an 8.4% decline in 2026 versus 2025. | A forecast of worldwide shipments, not a prediction that each buyer will defer an upgrade. |
| Conventional DRAM contract prices | TrendForce projected a 10–15% quarter-over-quarter increase in 4Q26 in its outlook published September 30, 2026. | Contract-price outlook for a component category, not a retail-device price change. |
| NAND Flash contract prices | TrendForce projected a 15–20% quarter-over-quarter increase in 4Q26 in its outlook published September 30, 2026. | Contract-price outlook for NAND Flash, not a retail-device price change. |
TrendForce’s March 2026 outlook had projected much steeper 2Q26 quarter-over-quarter increases—58–63% for conventional DRAM and 70–75% for NAND Flash. Those were earlier forecasts for a different quarter, not the latest estimate for 4Q26. Forecast ranges can change as supply, demand and purchasing plans evolve, so the publication date and period are essential context.
Gartner’s shipment and price forecasts describe a market-wide outlook. They do not establish a single price increase that will apply to every buyer, nor do they give current retail prices by country or device model. A forecasted component-price increase can be much larger than the eventual increase in a finished product because memory is only one part of a device’s cost and manufacturers have several ways to respond.
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How manufacturers may respond
When memory and storage costs rise, a device maker has choices rather than a single automatic pass-through. It may raise the retail price, accept a lower margin, draw on inventory bought at earlier prices, negotiate supply, change a device’s configuration or prioritize products with stronger margins. The response can differ even within one brand’s range.
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- Raise the price: A cost increase may be passed to buyers, particularly when the maker cannot offset it elsewhere.
- Hold the price and absorb some cost: This protects the advertised price but can reduce the manufacturer’s margin.
- Change the configuration: A model may include less RAM or storage, or the manufacturer may alter which configurations it offers. TrendForce reported SSD-capacity reductions in mainstream PC models as a way to reduce bill-of-material costs.
- Use inventory or existing agreements: Earlier purchases or supply arrangements can affect when a market-price change reaches a product. The effect and duration depend on the manufacturer’s situation; the cited forecasts do not specify a standard lag.
- Adjust the product mix: A manufacturer may focus on models with more room to absorb cost increases or better margin potential.
These choices help explain why two devices launched around the same time may respond differently. A price increase is only one possible sign of component pressure; a less generous configuration can also change the value a buyer receives.
Which devices and buyers may feel the pressure most
Entry-level PCs and basic phones
Gartner expects entry-level PCs and basic smartphones to face greater pressure because their makers have thinner margins and their buyers are more price-sensitive. When there is little margin to absorb higher component costs, the options to preserve a low headline price become harder. That can mean a price rise, a reduced configuration, fewer choices at the lowest tier, or some combination.
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Gartner projected that basic-smartphone buyers would exit the market five times faster than premium-phone buyers in 2026. This is a forecast about relative buyer response, not a measured finding that has already happened. It should not be read as a precise prediction for an individual country or household.
Premium devices
Gartner expects premium phones to be less affected because their higher margins give manufacturers more flexibility to absorb cost increases. “Less affected” does not mean immune: a manufacturer can still raise a premium model’s price or change its configuration. It means the economics of a high-margin device may leave more room to respond without passing every added cost directly to buyers.
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Gartner analyst Ranjit Atwal said, “The sub-$500 entry-level PC segment will disappear by 2028.” That is Gartner’s projection, not an established outcome, and it does not establish that all PCs below that price will vanish in every market. The forecast signals concern that rising costs could make the lowest-priced category more difficult to sustain.
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Gartner also forecast a 10.4% decline in worldwide PC shipments and an 8.4% decline in worldwide smartphone shipments in 2026 versus 2025. It attributed the expected contraction and upgrade delays to memory costs. Atwal described the potential consequence this way: “This is the steepest contraction in device shipments witnessed in over a decade. Higher prices will narrow the range of devices available, prompting buyers to hold on to devices for longer, fundamentally altering upgrade cycles,” Gartner reported.
Independent reader supportYour contribution helps us test, update, and keep practical guides available for everyone.What to check before buying a PC or phone
Do not try to predict a particular model’s local price from a global component forecast. Instead, compare what the device actually includes and whether it can meet your needs over the time you expect to keep it.
- Compare the full configuration. Check included RAM and storage, not just the model name or advertised price. If a manufacturer changes the configuration, a seemingly stable price may represent a different package.
- Decide whether capacity is sufficient for your use. A lower-storage model can be poor value if you will soon need more space. For phones, compare the storage tier you intend to buy; for PCs, check both installed memory and SSD capacity.
- Check upgradeability before counting on an upgrade. Some laptops allow a compatible memory or SSD upgrade; many models are not user-upgradeable. Verify the exact model’s specifications with its manufacturer before buying parts. The existence of a compatible DDR5 SODIMM kit or M.2 NVMe SSD category does not establish compatibility with your laptop.
- Compare the cost of extending the life of your current device. If your existing PC is otherwise adequate, a compatible memory or storage upgrade may be an option. Whether it is cheaper or worthwhile depends on the exact device, its upgrade limits and local part prices; the market forecasts do not settle that comparison.
- Consider keeping or buying used only on the merits. Gartner expects some buyers to hold devices longer or consider refurbished and second-hand phones. That is a forecast of possible responses, not a guarantee that used devices will be cheaper or better value in your market. Check condition, battery health where relevant, remaining software support and return terms.
Should you buy now or wait?
The forecasts alone cannot identify the best purchase date for an individual buyer. They do not provide current retail prices by country or model, and a forecasted market increase does not tell you whether a retailer has already changed its price or how a specific manufacturer will adjust its lineup.
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What is established and what remains uncertain
Gartner and TrendForce have published quantified forecasts and market outlooks that describe cost pressure, possible retail-price effects and potential shipment declines. Micron’s corporate product release lists offerings across HBM, DDR5 server memory, PC-client SSDs, LPDDR5X smartphone memory and UFS storage, illustrating the range of product categories involved. Product listings provide category context; they do not by themselves establish future consumer prices.
The available forecasts do not guarantee the price change of any particular PC or phone, supply current retail prices by country, or confirm compatibility for a specific upgrade. They also do not show that every manufacturer will make the same pricing or configuration decision. The useful conclusion for buyers is narrower: AI-related server demand is one contributor to memory-market pressure, while the eventual effect on a device depends on its category, configuration, maker and market.
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