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World desk8 min

Hearing Polymarket Trades Three Ways: A Rust Detection Layer for Copy-Trading Bots

A Rust copy-trading monitor should combine authenticated account streams, Polygon settlement observations, and Data API history while keeping their distinct scope, identifiers, and timing intact.
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A reliable Polymarket monitor should not assume that one WebSocket reports every trade by every wallet. Build three evidence paths instead: an authenticated stream for your own account’s executions, Polygon settlement logs for on-chain observations, and Data API history for recovery and reconciliation. Normalize their different records, retain their original identifiers, and deduplicate them without assuming they arrive together or have identical fields.

What “hearing every trade” can—and cannot—mean

The phrase is a useful engineering goal, not a documented delivery guarantee. The current Rust SDK describes authenticated user streams that include trade executions, but that establishes visibility into the authenticated account’s events—not a public stream of all trades attributed to arbitrary watched wallets. Its market-data streams expose order-book, price, and midpoint updates; those updates are not themselves proof that a trade executed.

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Polymarket’s architecture also separates off-chain CLOB matching from on-chain settlement. A Polygon log and a stream event can therefore represent different observations of activity, with different identifiers and arrival times. Data API history is a further, queryable record surface, not a documented substitute for a live feed with a fixed delivery interval. No source cited here establishes a lossless global feed, guaranteed API cadence, or exact latency for any of the three paths.

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How the three evidence paths differ

Path Event scope Wallet attribution Best use Operational concerns
Authenticated Rust SDK user stream User trade executions and order events for the authenticated account. Market streams separately expose book, price, and midpoint data. Account-specific events; the documented stream does not establish arbitrary-wallet coverage. Reacting to executions and order activity belonging to the bot’s own account. Authentication, connection state, reconnect and resubscription handling, and distinguishing executions from market updates.
Polygon settlement logs On-chain settlement observations, including CTF Exchange OrderFilled events in the historical archive described by the Polymarket-v1 paper. Use decoded event fields and verified contract definitions; do not assume every log directly corresponds to a desired watched-wallet record. Independent settlement observation, chain-based verification, and backfill from a persisted block checkpoint. RPC availability, contract and ABI verification, block/log persistence, reorganization handling, and finality policy.
Data API trade history Historical trade records queryable by user, market, or time, as described by Polymarket Institute. The documented example includes proxyWallet, useful when querying or studying user history. Recovering a time range after downtime, reconciling records, and checking joins against market metadata. Pagination or cursor handling as applicable to the endpoint, checkpointing, and differences from stream or chain payloads. No fixed update interval or completeness SLA is established by the cited documentation.

The table describes source roles, not a promise that one record from each path will always match one-to-one. Matching, settlement, and history should remain distinguishable in storage and in downstream decisions.

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Design the normalized event around evidence, not assumptions

Use one internal envelope so downstream code can process observations consistently, while preserving which source produced each one. The exact available fields differ by source. Do not manufacture a common trade ID, turn a missing number into zero, or discard raw records that may be needed to revisit a parsing or join decision.

  • Source and observation time: identify the stream, chain listener, or history query, and record when your system observed the record. Preserve any source timestamp separately rather than treating it as the same clock.
  • Wallet attribution: store the wallet or proxy wallet only when the source supplies it, and record which field supplied the address.
  • Market identifiers: keep condition ID, market or event ID, and outcome token or asset ID in separate fields. They are not interchangeable keys.
  • Trade attributes: retain side, price, share size, and USD-denominated value only when available and defined by that source. Do not infer an absent USD amount from a price or quantity without documenting the conversion and its assumptions.
  • Source identity: keep the source event ID or cursor for stream/API records when supplied. For chain observations, retain transaction hash, block identity, and log index.
  • Audit material: persist the raw payload, or a durable reference to it, alongside parsed fields.

Polymarket’s API surfaces split responsibilities: Gamma provides market and event information, CLOB routes use the relevant outcome token_id, and the Data API provides user trade history. Make those joins explicit in code and retain the input identifiers so an incorrect mapping can be diagnosed rather than hidden.

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Build each path for its actual role

1. Stream: respond to the events the channel documents

The maintained polymarket-client-sdk documentation describes an async Rust client with modular WebSocket, RTDS, data, and Gamma features. It documents subscribe_trades() and subscribe_orders() for authenticated user streams, as well as separate market streams. RTDS is documented as a distinct real-time-data feature; the material cited here does not verify that an RTDS subscription delivers every wallet-attributed trade.

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  1. Choose the documented channel whose event scope matches the need. For the bot’s own authenticated executions, use the authenticated user stream; do not substitute price or book updates.
  2. Record connection status, subscription state, and source timestamps with received observations.
  3. Make disconnect, reconnect, and resubscription behavior explicit. Persist enough state to know which interval may need recovery, but do not label a reconnect as lossless unless the service guarantees it.
  4. Send each received event through the same parsing and persistence boundary used by the other paths, retaining the original payload and source identity.

The SDK setup examples reviewed show version 0.3; crate versions change, so check the current release and its documentation before copying a dependency version or API call.

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2. Polygon: treat settlement logs as chain observations

The Polymarket-v1 paper characterizes the system as off-chain CLOB matching with on-chain CTF Exchange settlement on Polygon. Its historical archive is built from Polygon CTF Exchange OrderFilled events. That supports using logs as a distinct settlement observation path; it does not establish a production listener’s latency, a finality rule, or identical timing with a matching event.

  1. Connect to a Polygon RPC endpoint and subscribe to logs for the relevant verified contracts and event definitions.
  2. Decode only against the ABI and contract version you have independently verified for the deployment being monitored. The historical paper’s archive is not sufficient evidence for current addresses, ABIs, or later exchange versions.
  3. Persist block number or hash, transaction hash, and log index with each decoded record. These provide chain-specific provenance and support replay.
  4. Checkpoint progress durably. On restart, backfill from a safe prior checkpoint and deduplicate replayed logs.
  5. Choose and document a reorganization and finality policy. Until the policy considers an observation stable, downstream actions can treat it as provisional.

3. Data API: query gaps and reconcile records

Polymarket Institute describes Data API trade history as filterable by market, user, or time. Its example response includes proxyWallet. Use the history surface to query a recovery window after downtime, compare records with stream or chain observations, and investigate whether market and token joins are correct.

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  1. Persist the last successfully covered time or cursor for each query scope you operate.
  2. After a disconnect or suspected gap, request an overlapping recovery window rather than starting precisely at the last timestamp; then deduplicate the overlap.
  3. Follow the endpoint’s documented pagination or cursor behavior, and do not assume a query is complete until all pages for the requested range have been processed.
  4. Store the query parameters and retrieval time with returned records so later reconciliation can distinguish source event time from recovery time.

The cited documentation does not promise a fixed polling interval, real-time delivery, or exact equivalence between API history and either of the other paths. Treat it as a recovery and reconciliation surface, not a timed feed guarantee.

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Deduplicate without erasing source differences

Deduplication is an application policy, not a reason to collapse distinct observations prematurely. Prefer a stable source-native key when one exists: transaction hash plus log index for chain logs, or a documented source event identifier for a stream or API record. If a source has no reliable event identifier, retain the observation and mark a possible match using a documented composite rule rather than asserting identity.

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  • Keep separate observation records even when your reconciliation layer believes they describe the same underlying activity.
  • Link reconciled records with an internal relationship, preserving all source keys and raw payloads.
  • Make composite matching explicit about which fields it uses, such as wallet, token, side, price, quantity, and a bounded time window. These fields can be absent or differ in representation, so a match is evidence, not proof.
  • Handle replay idempotently: processing the same source-native event again should not create a second downstream action.
  • Do not trigger a copy order merely because a possible cross-source match exists. Apply your own validation, risk controls, and duplicate-action safeguards.

Use the current Rust client, not the archived one

The older Polymarket rs-clob-client repository is archived and explicitly says it is no longer functional, directing developers to the V2 client. A current implementation should start from the maintained polymarket-client-sdk documentation, then verify crate release details and the exact feature/API surface before integrating it. The documented Rust SDK features do not, by themselves, establish public arbitrary-wallet trade-stream coverage.

Detection quality is not trading performance

A technically sound observation pipeline can tell you that records appeared; it cannot establish that copying them will be profitable. In their 2026 Polymarket-v1 archive paper, Boka Qin and Rui Yang report 1.2016 billion trade records across 1,295,860 markets, covering 2022-11-21 through 2026-04-28, with 100% ground-truth direction coverage in that archive. In the paper’s benchmark, tick-rule classification accuracy was 49.83% and bulk-volume-classification accuracy was 50.51%. Those are results for the paper’s archive and methods, not a guarantee about every live event or a direct measure of this bot’s performance.

Gregory Young’s 2026 OpenMarket study reports 727,098,247 deduplicated rows across 202 archival snapshots sampled over 54 Polymarket days from 2026-02-12 through 2026-05-15. In its stated configuration, its tested out-of-sample model slightly underperformed the probability implied by Polymarket’s own order book, and simulated trading netted -0.116 normalized payoff units per attempted trade. These are study-specific results, not universal claims about all strategies. They reinforce the practical distinction: better event detection improves observability, not the expected value of a copied position.

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Operational checklist

  • Define whether the target is the bot’s authenticated account, on-chain settlement activity, or a user’s queryable trade history.
  • Keep book and price updates separate from trade-execution observations.
  • Represent market, event, condition, and outcome-token identifiers separately and preserve wallet attribution as supplied.
  • Persist raw observations, source-native identifiers, timestamps, cursors, and chain checkpoints.
  • Make reconnects, overlapping recovery queries, replay, deduplication, and reorganization handling explicit.
  • Do not advertise lossless monitoring, instant global delivery, complete feed parity, or profitability without evidence that supports the specific claim.

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