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Organizations should begin preparing for post-quantum cryptography (PQC) now—not because a quantum computer is known to be close, but because replacing cryptography across real systems takes time and sensitive data captured today could be targeted for decryption later. NIST finalized three PQC standards in 2024, and its stated standards-transition target is 2035. That date is not a prediction for when quantum computers will break current public-key cryptography.
Why prepare before a cryptographically relevant quantum computer exists?
A cryptographically relevant quantum computer (CRQC) is a future quantum machine capable of breaking public-key cryptography currently used to protect information or authenticate systems. NIST says no one knows when such a machine will be built; estimates vary. The case for acting now rests on two practical factors: cryptographic changes take time to deploy, and some information must remain confidential for many years.
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NIST notes that new algorithms can take 10 to 20 years to become fully integrated into information systems. This is historical context, not a measured estimate of how long a particular organization’s PQC migration will take. It does mean that waiting for a definitive hardware milestone could leave too little time to update complex environments. NIST’s explanation of post-quantum cryptography discusses both the uncertainty around CRQCs and the integration lead time.
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An attacker may collect encrypted information today and retain it in the hope of decrypting it in the future. This is often called “harvest now, decrypt later.” It makes the confidentiality lifetime of information a present-day risk factor: data that must stay secret for years may remain valuable to an adversary even if today’s encryption cannot be broken with available technology.
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Prioritization should therefore consider what information could be exposed, the harm exposure would cause, and how long confidentiality matters—not only whether a system is likely to be attacked in the near term.
What the finalized NIST standards do
On August 13, 2024, the U.S. Secretary of Commerce approved three Federal Information Processing Standards (FIPS) for post-quantum cryptography. They address two distinct cryptographic jobs: establishing shared secret keys and creating digital signatures. NIST’s announcement of the standards confirms their approval date.
| Standard | Finalized algorithm | Purpose | Derived from |
|---|---|---|---|
| FIPS 203 | Module-Lattice-Based Key-Encapsulation Mechanism (ML-KEM) | Establishes a shared secret key over a public channel. | CRYSTALS-Kyber |
| FIPS 204 | Module-Lattice-Based Digital Signature Algorithm (ML-DSA) | Provides digital signatures for integrity checking and signer authentication. | CRYSTALS-Dilithium |
| FIPS 205 | Stateless Hash-Based Digital Signature Algorithm (SLH-DSA) | Provides digital signatures for integrity checking and signer authentication. | SPHINCS+ |
ML-KEM is for key establishment; it is not a digital-signature algorithm. ML-DSA and SLH-DSA are signature standards; they do not perform the same job as key establishment. Use the finalized names when discussing the standards. The algorithms address quantum risks to particular public-key cryptographic schemes; this does not mean that quantum computing breaks all cryptography or that every system needs the same replacement.
NIST’s PQC Migration FAQ provides further migration context, including questions about policies, standards, and inventory planning.
What NIST’s timeline means—and does not mean
NIST’s current PQC project page says quantum-vulnerable algorithms will be deprecated and ultimately removed from its standards by 2035, with high-risk systems transitioning earlier. This is a target for changing standards, not a forecast that a CRQC will arrive in 2035. The hardware timeline remains unknown.
There is also an important document-status distinction: NIST IR 8547 is listed as an initial public draft, published November 12, 2024, with its comment period closed January 10, 2025. It should not be described as a finalized report. Organizations should monitor applicable final standards, errata, and sector-specific or government requirements as they develop.
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Sources: NIST’s Post-Quantum Cryptography project page and NIST CSRC’s IR 8547 initial public draft listing.
How to start a PQC migration
PQC readiness is an organizational technology and risk-management project, not simply an algorithm swap. NIST’s migration work emphasizes cryptographic discovery, planning, interoperability, and coordination. A practical starting sequence is:
- Build a cryptographic inventory. Identify where public-key cryptography is used across applications, protocols, libraries, certificates, keys, and dependent hardware or services. Record system owners and dependencies so an update to one component does not overlook connected systems.
- Assess business risk. For each use, consider the sensitivity and business impact of exposure, how long information must remain confidential, and the consequences of failed authentication or integrity checks. Prioritize high-value information with long secrecy requirements and high-risk systems.
- Map dependencies and vendors. Determine which products, hosted services, protocols, and hardware depend on quantum-vulnerable public-key schemes. Ask vendors about support plans and expected updates early; your organization may depend on changes outside its direct control.
- Set a roadmap and track progress. Sequence systems by risk and dependency, assign owners, and track migration status at the asset or system level. Treat inventory as an ongoing process because cryptographic use can be distributed across a complex environment.
- Evaluate interoperability and performance. Test the standards in the systems and workflows that will use them. Confirm compatibility across vendors, protocols, and dependent services, and assess performance under relevant operating conditions before broad deployment.
- Keep the plan aligned with current requirements. Follow NIST publications, finalized standards and errata, and applicable sector or government requirements. Distinguish finalized standards from drafts when setting policy.
The CISA, NSA, and NIST Quantum-Readiness factsheet outlines readiness actions, while NIST’s NCCoE migration project describes work on cryptographic inventory, interoperability, and benchmarking. The factsheet predates the 2024 finalized standards, so its earlier expectations about standards being forthcoming should not be treated as current status.
Who should be involved?
Because cryptography is embedded in products and services, the work usually spans multiple functions. Security teams can identify cryptographic use and threat priorities; application, infrastructure, and procurement teams can map dependencies and vendor commitments; business owners can judge data sensitivity and confidentiality lifetimes; and compliance or legal teams can identify applicable requirements. The precise roles depend on the organization, but migration decisions should connect technical dependencies to business risk.
NIST mathematician Dustin Moody, who leads the PQC standardization project, said: “We encourage organizations to begin their transition to these standards immediately to ensure their data remains secure in the quantum era.” The statement appears in NIST’s post-quantum cryptography explainer.
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