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Can U.S. Solar Makers Catch China With Tandem Panels?

Tandem panels could give U.S. solar makers a technology edge, but lab efficiency is only the first step toward durable, affordable, high-volume production.
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U.S. solar manufacturers are betting that tandem panels can turn a technology advance into a way to compete with China’s far larger solar supply chain. The approach stacks light-absorbing materials to capture more of the sun’s spectrum. But a high laboratory efficiency record is not the same as a durable, affordable panel rolling off a high-volume factory line.

What is the technology leap?

Two absorbers can capture more of sunlight

A conventional silicon solar cell uses one main light-absorbing layer. A tandem device stacks two or more absorbers with different bandgaps, allowing each layer to use portions of sunlight that another layer may not use as effectively. Perovskite-on-silicon is a leading hybrid design: the perovskite layer can be tuned to absorb wavelengths silicon handles less efficiently. The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) says hybrid tandems have the potential to exceed the theoretical efficiency limit of a single-junction cell. DOE: Perovskite Solar Cells

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The reported energy gain is a promise, not a fleet result

The article’s accessible reporting describes manufacturers’ potential for roughly 25% more energy than most current panels. Tandem PV similarly summarized the opportunity as about a quarter more electricity from the same footprint. Neither statement establishes that commercial tandem modules have delivered that gain across real installations. Energy production depends on the specific module, site, weather, orientation, system design, and operating conditions; cell efficiency alone does not determine it. Tandem PV’s summary of the New York Times article

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Why is the United States trying to catch up?

China dominates cell production

IEA Photovoltaic Power Systems Programme (IEA PVPS) data for 2024 put China at 90.1% of global photovoltaic (PV) cell production and the United States at 0.6%, according to its 2025 report. These figures describe cell production, not module assembly or tandem output specifically. They show the scale of the manufacturing challenge, but should not be read as a comparison of every stage of each country’s solar industry. IEA PVPS, Snapshot of Global PV Markets 2025

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The supply-chain starting point has changed since 2022

DOE’s 2022 supply-chain review said the United States then had no active manufacturing capacity for silicon ingots, wafers, or cells. That is a historical baseline, not a current inventory of U.S. capacity. The report also cautioned that a major perovskite market impact by 2035 would be unprecedented. Tandem technology therefore offers a possible route to compete through a new product, but does not by itself remove the need to build factories, suppliers, and production expertise. DOE, Solar Photovoltaics Supply Chain Review

China is competing in tandem research, too

The technology is not an exclusively American bet. IEA PVPS reported that China’s LONGi had achieved a 34.6% perovskite/silicon tandem research-cell efficiency record by March 2025. That is a research-cell result, not a commercial module efficiency or proof of factory-scale performance. The contest is over who can turn advanced designs into dependable, bankable products and manufacture them competitively—not who has heard of tandems first. IEA PVPS, Snapshot of Global PV Markets 2025

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What would show that tandem panels are ready for market?

DOE’s perovskite target framework makes clear that a headline cell result is only one milestone. Its hybrid-tandem target summary lists 27% efficiency alongside requirements involving module area and interconnected cells, selected IEC/ISOS quality tests, and outdoor stability. These are development targets, not evidence that a named manufacturer has met them. DOE: Perovskite Solar Cell Research

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  • Module-scale performance: Confirm the efficiency of a full module, including its area and validation method, rather than relying only on a small research cell.
  • Durability outdoors: Look for sustained outdoor performance and degradation data. Short laboratory tests can screen materials, but do not alone establish long-term service life.
  • Repeatable production: A prototype or demonstration line is not the same as consistent factory output and shipped volume. Commercial readiness requires scalable, reproducible manufacturing processes.
  • Useful energy yield: Nameplate efficiency and real-world electricity generation are different measures. Compare output under relevant installation conditions, not just cell records.
  • Competitive economics: Manufacturing cost and selling price must support financing and a favorable levelized cost of electricity (LCOE), the cost of power over a system’s lifetime.

NREL’s modeled future PV scenarios can illustrate possible technology mixes, but they are based on assumptions rather than a guarantee that tandems will capture a particular share of the market. NREL, PV Technology Innovation to Accelerate the Deployment of Solar Power

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What could keep the bet from paying off?

Degradation and buyer confidence

The article’s reporting identifies two buyer concerns: whether tandem panels will cost too much and whether they will degrade faster than conventional panels. A promising initial efficiency cannot answer either question. Buyers and project financiers need credible evidence on outdoor stability and the cost of electricity over time before a new module can compete on more than its laboratory record.

Making a better cell is not the same as closing a manufacturing gap

The accessible article copy names Tandem PV, First Solar, and Hanwha Qcells as companies preparing tandem products for commercial sale and says the products have been tested and certified. It does not specify all tests, certifying bodies, models, or public performance records, so that statement does not establish comparable qualifications or readiness for any particular product. Mike Carr, executive director of the Solar Energy Manufacturers for America Coalition, called tandem “the next frontier.” The frontier is real, but high efficiency alone cannot replace scalable manufacturing, durable modules, competitive costs, and trusted supply chains.

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