Bitcoin bounced to $82,837 on Friday, October 9, 2026, after dipping to $80,427 the day before. That recovery did not erase the risk flagged by a prediction market: Myriad priced a 67% chance that Bitcoin would trade at or below $80,000 at some point in October. This was a dated market estimate—not a guarantee, a broad analyst consensus, or a live price quote.
What the rebound recovered—and what it did not
Decrypt reported that Bitcoin rose 1.38% to $82,837 on Friday, October 9, after reaching $80,427 on Thursday, its lowest level since early September. The bounce therefore put price back above Thursday’s low, but it did not by itself establish that the week’s weakness had ended.
As an Amazon Associate I earn from qualifying purchases.
Decrypt described $83,000 as a test zone, citing Bitwise Europe’s Luke Deans, who said it aligned with the average ETF cost basis and a previous higher-high level. The article identified $84,433 as another zone and September’s $87,354.33 high as a level buyers would need to close above. These are levels discussed in that October 9 report, not assured support or resistance, and they can lose relevance as prices change.
What Myriad’s October probabilities meant
As reported by Decrypt on October 9, Myriad assigned a 67% probability to Bitcoin trading at or below $80,000 at some point during October. The same market showed 40% for $77,500 and 24% for $75,000. These are prices of prediction-market contracts reflecting participants’ estimates of defined outcomes over a defined horizon; they should not be read as certainty or as a forecast agreed upon by analysts or all crypto traders.
#1 Best Overall
- BITCOIN EXCLUSIVE, PHONE VERIFICATION: Bitkey is designed from the ground up exclusively for bitcoin — a dedicated hardware wallet for secure bitcoin storage. Approve transactions with a tap using your phone and NFC. No device screen is required.
- SELF-CUSTODY, NO EXCHANGE OR CUSTODIAN REQUIRED: You hold two of the three keys in the Bitkey system – one on your phone and one on your Bitkey device. The third is stored on Bitkey’s server and cannot move your bitcoin on its own.
- NO SEED PHRASE: Set up and use Bitkey without creating or storing a seed phrase.
- 2-of-3 MULTISIG: Three keys are stored separately across your phone, Bitkey device, and Bitkey’s server. Any two keys are required to move your bitcoin.
- BUILT-IN RECOVERY: Encrypted backup and recovery tools can help you regain access if you lose your phone or Bitkey device. You can also designate a Recovery Contact.
The probabilities also describe possible threshold events, not necessarily where Bitcoin would finish October. A separate weekly Myriad market put the chance of ending the week above $87,500 at 49%, illustrating that expectations could encompass both downside and a recovery scenario. Decrypt reported that Myriad is owned by its parent company, Dastan, a relationship readers should keep in mind when weighing coverage of the platform.
Why market signals were not all bearish
ETF flows and macro context
Decrypt reported Bitcoin ETF outflows of $484.9 million on Wednesday and $244 million on Thursday, describing Wednesday as the worst outflow day since June 25. It also cited a 10-year Treasury yield of 5.32% and Federal Reserve minutes that, in its account, pointed to another rate hike by year-end. Those were contemporaneous figures and context in the report; they do not establish that any one factor caused Bitcoin’s decline.
Rank #2
- Unparalleled Security: Protect your assets NDA-free EAL 6+ Secure Element, offering robust defense and complete transparency
- Simple & Secure Interface: Manage your digital assets easily with a clear OLED screen for secure on-device confirmations
- Supports 1000s of Coins & Tokens: Securely handle thousands of assets, including Bitcoin, Ethereum, and more, all in one wallet
- Effortless Asset Management: Monitor and transact seamlessly with Trezor Suite, our intuitive desktop and mobile app
- Enhanced Backup Solution: Rest assured with Multi-share Backup, eliminating single points of failure for secure cold wallet recovery
Options showed different readings on different dates
A September 30 report from Deribit Insights, citing Block Scholes, said Bitcoin had consolidated between $82,000 and $84,000 after touching $86,000 the preceding week. At that earlier point, BTC and ETH spot ETFs had recorded more than seven consecutive days of inflows. The report characterized short-dated Bitcoin 25-delta skew as alternating between demand for downside protection and positioning for a possible rally as traders assessed the macro backdrop.
Outdated Drivers Are Slowing You Down
One free scan finds every outdated or missing driver and matches the right update for your exact hardware.Free scan · exact hardware matchPC Slower Than It Used to Be?
A free scan shows the junk files, broken settings and background clutter dragging Windows down - then fixes them in one click.Free scan · Windows 10 & 11In this context, 25-delta skew compares implied volatility for 25-delta calls and puts, indicating their relative pricing and demand. It is an options-market measure, not a direct count of traders who expect Bitcoin to rise or fall.
Rank #3
- Unparalleled Security: Protect your assets with EAL 6+ Secure Element, offering robust defense and complete transparency
- Simple & Secure Interface: Manage your digital assets easily with a clear OLED screen for secure on-device confirmations
- Supports 1000s of Coins & Tokens: Securely handle thousands of assets, including Bitcoin, Ethereum, and more, all in one wallet
- Effortless Asset Management: Monitor and transact seamlessly with Trezor Suite, our intuitive desktop and mobile app
- Enhanced Backup Solution: Multi-share Backup eliminates single points of failure for secure cold wallet recovery
Glassnode’s October 7 report presented a more bullish options picture: put/call ratios for both open interest and traded volume were below one and in the lower third of their 2026 ranges. Open interest stood at about 0.56 puts per call, while average daily spending on calls exceeded spending on puts by about $17 million over the preceding 30 days. Those are Glassnode’s measures over the stated period, not a universal gauge of market belief—and they predate Decrypt’s October 9 price report.
Spot demand and positioning
Glassnode also described spot volume as subdued and said new money explained less than two-fifths of the increase in realized cap. It reported substantial profit-taking by recent buyers around the October 4 close above $85,000. Its conclusion was that “The market now leans on positioning more than on fresh demand.” Together, these observations suggest that bullish options positioning existed alongside limited spot participation and selling by some recent buyers.
Rank #4
- Dual-chip architecture for maximum protection: The next-gen, fully auditable TROPIC01 chip works alongside a certified EAL6+ Secure Element—completely NDA-free—to deliver radically transparent, industry-leading defense against physical attacks.
- Quantum-ready security: Get protection against future threats with the first-ever hardware wallet designed with quantum-ready architecture.
- See every detail with confidence: Our largest high-resolution color touchscreen makes it easy to navigate your assets, review transactions and manage your coins with clarity.
- Wireless freedom with encrypted Bluetooth control: Manage, buy, swap and stake securely using Trezor Suite on desktop or mobile. Qi2-compatible wireless charging keeps your Trezor powered up. No cables required—security meets convenience.
- Works seamlessly with Android, iOS and desktop: Connect wirelessly or via USB-C to your phone or computer. Manage your crypto anywhere with our companion Trezor Suite app.
What the liquidation and order-book levels can—and cannot—show
Glassnode’s October 7 models showed potential liquidation concentrations below and above the then-prevailing price. Nearby lower clusters were around $81,700–$83,300, with another near $75,000. The largest one-year cluster above price was around $87,100–$95,900, heaviest near $92,000. Its reported Binance order-book snapshot showed a bid block at $81,000–$81,250 and an ask block at $86,500–$86,750.
These figures are model-based or venue-specific snapshots, not targets or guaranteed turning points. Liquidation concentrations and order-book liquidity can shift quickly. Glassnode said its data cutoffs varied by measure through October 7 and that the most recent daily data could be revised.
Best Value
- Effortlessly build your crypto portfolio via the all in one Ledger Wallet app: buy, sell, send, receive, swap, stake and more across popular blockchains. 15,000+ coins & tokens in a single dashboard. Keep a close eye on the market. Compare service providers. Track performance. Get timely alerts. Build your portfolio with confidence.
- Enjoy Bluetooth connectivity, iOS access, and hours of battery use with this mobile-first, secure backup signer. Freedom you can depend on.
- Genuine Check: confirm your signer is authentic during setup with the Ledger Wallet app.
- Protect your signer: keep it in mint condition at all times with a bespoke Pod or Case to avoid scratches and everyday wear and tear.
How to read the October 9 picture
- Prediction market: Myriad priced the chance of touching or falling below specified levels during October; the figures were not promises about the month-end price.
- Options: Deribit’s September 30 skew reading was mixed, while Glassnode’s October 7 put/call and spending measures leaned bullish. Different dates and metrics explain why they are not contradictory verdicts.
- Flows and volume: ETF outflows and subdued spot activity describe demand and participation, not a certain future price direction.
- Liquidations and order books: These point to possible liquidity concentrations in the snapshots, not dependable support, resistance, or price targets.
For the reader asking whether Bitcoin would fall below $80,000 in October, the October 9 evidence supports a precise answer: Myriad traders assigned that outcome a material probability, while other market indicators were mixed. The available figures do not establish that a drop was inevitable or that traders broadly agreed on it.
Quick Recap
Product prices and availability are accurate as of the date/time indicated and are subject to change. Any price and availability information displayed on Amazon at the time of purchase will apply.
