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BigBear.ai has the clearer near-term revenue case; D-Wave offers a more speculative quantum-computing growth thesis. BigBear.ai reported second-quarter revenue growth, higher gross margin, a larger backlog and reaffirmed 2026 revenue guidance. D-Wave’s first-half bookings and remaining performance obligations rose, but recognized revenue fell sharply against a prior-year period that included a major system sale, and its losses grew. Both companies were loss-making in the periods reported. Without a date-matched valuation for both stocks, operating momentum alone cannot establish which is the better buy.
What each company sells—and what the comparison means
BigBear.ai describes itself as a defense and security technology company providing mission-ready AI. It attributed part of its second-quarter 2026 revenue growth to its Ask Sage generative-AI platforms and products. Management said it won more than 20 new contracts during the quarter; that is the company’s reported count, not an independently verified measure of future revenue.
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D-Wave sells quantum computing systems, software and services. Its offerings include annealing and gate-model systems, as well as its Leap quantum cloud service; customers can access systems on premises or through the cloud. The comparison is therefore not simply “AI versus quantum”: it is also a comparison between a company reporting current revenue growth and a company whose commercial thesis depends more heavily on converting orders and contracted work into revenue.
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Revenue and commercial traction: recognized sales tell different stories
BigBear.ai: growth, backlog and guidance
BigBear.ai reported $36.7 million in revenue for the second quarter of 2026, up 13% year over year. Its gross margin increased to 32.8%, from 25.0% in the second quarter of 2025. The company reported a backlog of $269.6 million at June 30, 2026, and affirmed full-year 2026 revenue guidance of $135 million to $165 million. The guidance is management’s outlook, not revenue already earned.
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Backlog and guidance provide context for possible future revenue, but neither guarantees when contracts will be performed or how much will ultimately be recognized. BigBear.ai’s government-facing business makes contract timing, procurement cycles and customer concentration important execution risks.
D-Wave: bookings and RPO are not revenue
D-Wave reported $5.9 million in revenue for the first half of 2026, down 67% from $18.1 million in the first half of 2025. That comparison is unusually sensitive to system-sale timing: the 2025 period included $13.7 million recognized from D-Wave’s first annealing-system sale.
At the same time, first-half bookings rose to $35.5 million from $2.9 million a year earlier. The 2026 bookings included a $20 million system sale whose revenue D-Wave said would be recognized in subsequent quarters. Bookings indicate customer orders expected to generate future net revenue; they are not the same as recognized sales.
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D-Wave reported $40.7 million in remaining performance obligations (RPO) at June 30, 2026. The company expected approximately 57% to be recognized as revenue within 12 months and 72% within two years. RPO represents contracted work not yet performed, so those estimates are not a substitute for revenue already recorded. D-Wave’s commercial case depends on converting bookings and RPO into recognized, repeatable sales.
Profitability and cash: neither company is profitable
Losses remain a central part of both investment cases
BigBear.ai reported a $25.7 million net loss and an $11.6 million non-GAAP adjusted EBITDA loss for the second quarter of 2026. Its net loss was much smaller than in the same quarter of 2025, but the comparison was largely affected by smaller non-cash fair-value and goodwill-impairment effects. It should not be treated by itself as proof of an operating turnaround.
D-Wave reported a $69.9 million adjusted EBITDA loss for the first half of 2026, with losses increasing as it invested in product development and go-to-market efforts. Adjusted EBITDA is a non-GAAP measure, so it should not be confused with net income or cash flow. The reported figures show both businesses remained loss-making.
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Period-end cash is a cushion, not proof of self-funding
At June 30, 2026, BigBear.ai reported $409.8 million in available cash and investments; D-Wave reported $546.2 million in cash and marketable investment securities. These are dated balance-sheet snapshots, not guarantees that either company will avoid future capital needs. D-Wave said more than 90% of the year-over-year decline in its cash and marketable securities was attributable to cash consideration for its January 2026 Quantum Circuits acquisition.
Which stock looks stronger on each measure?
| Measure | BigBear.ai | D-Wave Quantum |
|---|---|---|
| Recognized revenue | $36.7 million in Q2 2026, up 13% year over year | $5.9 million in H1 2026, down 67% from H1 2025 |
| Forward-looking commercial indicators | $269.6 million backlog at June 30, 2026; $135 million–$165 million FY2026 revenue guidance | $35.5 million H1 2026 bookings; $40.7 million RPO at June 30, 2026 |
| Profitability measure reported | Q2 2026 net loss of $25.7 million; adjusted EBITDA loss of $11.6 million | H1 2026 adjusted EBITDA loss of $69.9 million |
| Cash and investments | $409.8 million at June 30, 2026 | $546.2 million at June 30, 2026 |
The periods differ: BigBear.ai’s figures above are primarily for one quarter, while D-Wave’s revenue and adjusted EBITDA figures cover six months. They are not directly comparable measures of scale or loss rate. The table is useful for identifying each company’s reported position, not for treating unlike periods or commercial indicators as equivalent.
Valuation: the evidence does not support a fair price-to-price verdict
A better business update does not automatically make a better stock purchase at any price. A valuation comparison requires market capitalization and an appropriate, date-matched revenue denominator for both companies. A third-party StockAnalysis snapshot dated October 6, 2026, reported D-Wave (QBTS) at a $5.88 billion market capitalization and $12.43 million in trailing-twelve-month revenue, with a closing share price of $15.79. These figures are a point-in-time snapshot and can change with trading.
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No equivalent current BigBear.ai market-capitalization and revenue snapshot on the same date and data basis is established here. It would be misleading to combine the D-Wave figures with an older BigBear.ai quote or ratio and call one stock cheaper. Investors should compare both companies using the same provider, closing date and revenue period before drawing a valuation conclusion.
Risks that could change the investment case
- BigBear.ai: Government contract timing, procurement processes and customer concentration can make revenue uneven. Its 2026 guidance remains an outlook rather than a realized result.
- D-Wave: Its reported bookings and RPO must convert into revenue, while the company continues to fund development and go-to-market spending. Quantum computing’s commercial market is still developing, and the reported losses make execution and financing relevant risks.
- Both: Cash balances can support operations, but they do not establish profitability or eliminate the possibility of future capital needs.
Which one may fit your investment thesis?
BigBear.ai may suit investors prioritizing nearer-term operating evidence
BigBear.ai is the more straightforward fit for an investor seeking reported quarterly revenue growth, improving gross margin, backlog and a stated full-year revenue outlook. The trade-off is exposure to government-business execution risks and continuing losses; the operating indicators do not establish that the shares are attractively priced.
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D-Wave may appeal to investors willing to accept greater uncertainty in pursuit of quantum-computing growth. Its rising bookings and RPO point to commercial activity, but first-half recognized revenue declined and losses continued. The investment case therefore depends on subsequent conversion of contracted work into revenue and progress toward a repeatable business.
Best Value
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These distinctions describe business evidence, not a personalized recommendation. The strongest conclusion available from the reported results is that BigBear.ai had the clearer near-term revenue path, while D-Wave offered the more speculative growth case. A buy decision still requires a current, like-for-like valuation comparison and a risk tolerance appropriate to loss-making companies.
Sources and reporting periods
The operating figures above come from company results and disclosures for periods ending June 30, 2026: BigBear.ai’s second-quarter 2026 results, BigBear.ai’s earnings release and guidance, D-Wave’s second-quarter and first-half 2026 results, and D-Wave’s RPO and liquidity disclosure. Company-reported results are not independently tested here. For D-Wave’s business description, see its company results release. The dated market snapshot is from StockAnalysis.
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