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Clear out junk files and repair common Windows errorsFree Scan →Scan for outdated or missing drivers - takes under a minuteDriver Scan →Neither BHP nor Rio Tinto is a universal winner: the better fit depends on the commodity exposure, project risks, dividend approach and valuation you want. BHP’s FY2026 results show strong iron ore and copper performance, with copper contributing more than half of underlying EBITDA for the first time. Rio Tinto’s H1 2026 results show copper, aluminium and lithium together contributing more than half of underlying EBITDA. Those snapshots cover different reporting periods, so they do not establish which share is better valued or suitable for a particular investor.
What the latest results say—and what they do not
BHP reported results for the year ended 30 June 2026 on 18 August 2026. Rio Tinto reported half-year results for the six months ended 30 June 2026 on 29 July 2026. The different periods matter: a full-year figure and a half-year figure are not like-for-like measures of size or performance.
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| Measure | BHP, FY2026 | Rio Tinto, H1 2026 |
|---|---|---|
| Underlying EBITDA | About US$33 billion for the year ended 30 June 2026. BHP FY2026 results | US$14.8 billion for the six months ended 30 June 2026. Rio Tinto H1 2026 results |
| Underlying earnings | Not stated in the cited FY2026 results release. | US$6.9 billion for the six months ended 30 June 2026. Rio Tinto H1 2026 results |
| Cash flow | Not stated in the cited FY2026 results release. | Free cash flow of US$3.8 billion for the six months ended 30 June 2026. Rio Tinto H1 2026 results |
| Net debt | Below US$9 billion at FY2026 year-end. BHP FY2026 results | US$14.1 billion at 30 June 2026. Rio Tinto H1 2026 results |
| Dividend | Final dividend of US$0.99 per share; total FY2026 dividends were US$1.72 per share including the interim payment. BHP FY2026 results and BHP Annual Report 2026 | Interim ordinary dividend of US$2.11 per share, with a 50% interim payout ratio. Rio Tinto H1 2026 results |
Underlying EBITDA, underlying earnings and cash-flow measures describe different things; do not treat them as interchangeable. Rio’s FY2025 results offer a separate full-year reference—US$25.4 billion underlying EBITDA, US$16.8 billion operating cash flow, US$10.9 billion underlying earnings and a US$6.5 billion ordinary dividend, equal to a 60% payout. Those are for FY2025, published on 19 February 2026, and should not be compared directly with BHP FY2026 as if they covered the same year. Rio said the payout was the tenth consecutive year at the top end of its payout range. Rio Tinto FY2025 results
How their commodity exposure differs
BHP: iron ore remains important as copper grows
BHP reported record iron ore production and shipments at Western Australia Iron Ore (WAIO), as well as about 2 million tonnes of copper production for a second consecutive year. Its 2026 annual report says copper contributed more than half of underlying EBITDA for the first time. CEO Brandon Craig described copper as “the engine that is driving BHP’s growth”; that is management’s characterization, not an independent forecast. BHP FY2026 results and BHP Annual Report 2026
Rio Tinto: a broader mix across several commodities
Rio said copper, aluminium and lithium together made up more than 50% of underlying EBITDA in H1 2026, alongside its major iron ore business. CEO Simon Trott also reported a 3% rise in copper-equivalent production. Rio defines copper equivalent using its production share, volume conversion factors and long-term consensus prices, so that comparison is company-specific rather than a direct measure of physical copper output. Rio Tinto H1 2026 results
The mix figures point to different ways each company’s earnings could respond as commodity prices and operations change, but they do not prove that one company is inherently more resilient. Commodity contribution shares cover different periods, and both companies remain exposed to mining-market and operational risks.
Rank #2
Growth plans bring different opportunities and execution risks
BHP: copper projects and potash
BHP’s FY2026 materials identify copper and potash as central growth themes. The company approved US$0.5 billion in pre-commitment funding for a new Escondida concentrator ahead of a final investment decision expected in calendar years 2027–28. That is funding before a decision, not completed capacity or a guaranteed project schedule. BHP FY2026 results and BHP Annual Report 2026
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Rio Tinto: copper, lithium and Simandou
Rio’s H1 update covered continued Oyu Tolgoi copper ramp-up, development of the Simandou iron ore project, and first production at Fénix 1B and Sal de Vida ahead of plan. Rio described a path toward about 200 kilotonnes per year of lithium carbonate equivalent capacity by 2028. These are project updates and a target, not guaranteed outcomes. Delivery depends on approvals, capital requirements, schedule, ramp-up and operating performance. Rio Tinto H1 2026 results
Rank #3
Dividends and balance sheets need more than a headline comparison
BHP’s capital-allocation framework sets a minimum dividend payout ratio of 50% of underlying attributable profit at every reporting period. Its FY2026 final dividend notice gives a payment date of 23 September 2026 and describes a dividend reinvestment plan; shareholders should check the notice and their share-register arrangements for applicable terms. BHP dividend information
Rio says dividend decisions take account of financial-year results, major-commodity outlook, long-term growth prospects and the aim of maintaining a strong balance sheet. It declared a 50% payout for its H1 2026 interim dividend; that interim ratio is not directly comparable with BHP’s minimum framework or Rio’s FY2025 full-year payout. Rio’s dividend page notes Australian dividend imputation may affect eligible Australian resident holders of Rio Tinto Limited shares, depending on their tax status. Tax treatment varies by investor and jurisdiction. Rio Tinto dividend information
The reported debt figures also come from different reporting windows: BHP’s was below US$9 billion at FY2026 year-end, while Rio’s was US$14.1 billion at 30 June 2026. A fuller comparison needs cash generation, capital spending, the commodity cycle and the companies’ respective balance-sheet needs—not debt in isolation.
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Risks to weigh before deciding on portfolio fit
- Commodity exposure: earnings can change with commodity prices, demand and market conditions; a broader mix does not remove cyclicality.
- Project delivery: delays, cost overruns, ramp-up challenges or approval changes can affect expected growth.
- Operating and external conditions: Rio identifies risks including geopolitical and trade conditions, currency moves, safety events, climate impacts, water scarcity and regulatory change. Rio Tinto H1 2026 results
- Returns are not assured: dividend frameworks and past payouts do not guarantee future dividends; boards make decisions in light of business results and outlook.
A practical way to compare the shares for your portfolio
- Decide which commodity exposures you want. Consider whether you want BHP’s combination of a large iron ore business and growing copper contribution, or Rio’s mix in which copper, aluminium and lithium together exceeded half of underlying EBITDA in H1 2026.
- Compare matched reporting periods. Use annual results against annual results or half-year results against half-year results, and label the period. Keep EBITDA, earnings, cash flow, profit and dividend payout measures distinct.
- Assess growth delivery, not targets alone. Examine project stages, funding, approvals, schedules and ramp-up assumptions for the developments most relevant to your investment horizon.
- Review returns alongside balance-sheet needs. Compare payout frameworks, cash generation, debt, planned investment, dividend currency and any reinvestment options that apply to your shareholding.
- Check valuation and personal circumstances. Company operating results alone cannot tell you whether a share is attractively priced or suitable. Consider current market data, your time horizon, tolerance for cyclicality, diversification, tax position and access to the relevant listing or share register.
The company releases cited here support a comparison of business exposure, results and stated plans; they do not establish current relative valuation, expected share returns, individualized suitability or an investor’s tax consequences.
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