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Electricity-network investment, data-centre expansion and risks to mine supply could all put upward pressure on copper by 2028. They make a plausible bullish case, not a reliable price forecast: the cited outlooks project supply and demand over different horizons, and none establishes where copper will trade in 2028.
1. Electricity networks and low-emissions technology add structural demand
Copper is used in electricity generation, transmission and distribution, as well as in electrical equipment. As electricity supply and use expand, more grid infrastructure and related equipment may be needed. Investment in low-emissions technologies adds to this broad source of demand.
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The Australian Department of Industry, Science and Resources’ September 2025 Resources and Energy Quarterly forecast average copper-demand growth of 2.6% a year, from 28 million tonnes in 2025 to more than 29 million tonnes in 2027. The department identified electricity supply and demand, electrical infrastructure and low-emissions technology as the main drivers of medium-term growth. This is a forecast through 2027, not an observation or forecast for 2028.
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2. Data centres and AI bring another load for electrical infrastructure
Data centres need electricity, and the infrastructure that supplies and distributes that power uses copper. AI-supporting facilities can be especially power-intensive. The Australian government’s September 2025 report cited an average requirement of 27–33 tonnes of copper per megawatt for an AI-supporting data centre.
Published estimates of data-centre copper demand differ, so they should be kept separate rather than treated as a single settled forecast:
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| Estimate | Attribution and timeframe |
|---|---|
| Around 550,000 tonnes of annual copper demand | IEA estimate for 2030, as cited by the Australian Department of Industry, Science and Resources in its September 2025 report. |
| A 572,000-tonne peak | BNEF estimate for 2028, as cited by the same Australian government report. |
The report also cited IEA projections that electricity generation for data centres would rise from 460 TWh in 2024 to more than 1,000 TWh in 2030, including 426 TWh in the United States. Those are electricity-generation projections, not copper-demand figures. Together, the estimates point to a potential new source of demand, but they do not establish a certain copper requirement for 2028.
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Demand growth can put pressure on the market if mine supply and other sources of copper do not keep pace. But an announced mine project is not the same as operating production: project delivery takes time, and actual output can be disrupted by operational problems.
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Outages can affect near-term availability
The Australian government’s September 2025 report described several disruptions during 2025: First Quantum suspended operations at Cobre Panama; a seismic event interrupted production and led to lower output guidance at Kamoa-Kakula; and a tunnel collapse interrupted operations at Codelco’s El Teniente. These are examples of operational risk, not evidence that the interruptions will continue through 2028. The report also said the effects of a late-September 2025 Grasberg outage were not included in that edition, illustrating how a published outlook may lag a fast-moving event.
New production could ease pressure
The same Australian government report projected global mine output to grow by 3.9% annually from 2025, reaching 25 million tonnes by 2027. That expected growth is an important counterpoint to outage risk: the supply story is not simply one of falling mine production. Whether supply feels tight depends on how new output, expansions and other sources compare with demand growth.
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The IEA’s 2026 outlook estimated a copper supply gap of around 25% in 2035, down from around 30% in its previous outlook as more projects entered the pipeline. This is a scenario-based estimate comparing expected supply from announced projects with primary-supply requirements—not a 2028 shortage prediction or a claim that prices must rise. In the IEA’s calculation, secondary supply is netted out and refining losses are accounted for. Recycling, project delivery and changes in demand can all alter the balance.
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Random freezes, missing sound and display glitches usually trace back to one bad driver. Find and replace yours safely.Free scan · under a minuteWhat these trends do—and do not—say about copper prices
Structural demand is only part of the price picture. Copper prices also respond to cyclical economic activity, inventories, substitution, recycling, project delivery and policy. A strong long-term demand scenario can coexist with weaker near-term prices if economic conditions or available supply shift the balance.
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- The electricity-network and low-emissions story is a broad source of projected demand growth.
- Data-centre expansion adds a distinct potential demand source, but estimates vary by publisher and year.
- Mine outages can tighten availability, while production growth and new projects can relieve pressure.
- The cited IEA demand projection reaches 2040 and its supply-gap estimate concerns 2035; neither is a direct price call for 2028.
These trends could support higher copper prices by 2028 if demand grows faster than available supply. They do not prove prices will be higher in that year.
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