Through September 30, 2026, the strongest results in the available comparison came from commodities and emerging-market stocks, while several bond proxies and gold lagged. The picture is not a definitive seven-class leaderboard: the published tables use different benchmarks and report different S&P 500 returns. The figures below are source-reported snapshots, not a single recalculated comparison.
What counts as a fair comparison?
This article uses year-to-date figures through September 30, 2026, the latest common cutoff in the cited tables. It draws on Madison Partners’ September update and CIBC Private Wealth US’s September 30 chart. Their results are shown separately where they differ rather than being blended into one ranking.
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An asset class does not have one universal return. An index, exchange-traded fund (ETF), or other proxy can track a different slice of the market, and reported returns can vary with calculation and timing. CIBC labels its stock figures total returns; Madison Partners identifies its international bond proxy as currency hedged. The cited material does not establish a common fee, income-reinvestment, or currency convention for every figure, so treat each number as belonging to its named source and proxy.
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Which asset classes led or lagged through September 30?
Madison Partners’ table spans seven broad exposure groups: US stocks, international stocks, bonds, commodities, gold, and listed real estate, with multiple subcategories within stocks and bonds. The figures below retain its specific proxy labels; they are not directly interchangeable with CIBC’s separate results.
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| Exposure | Proxy | 2026 YTD |
|---|---|---|
| US large-cap stocks | S&P 500 | +12.8% |
| US small-cap stocks | Russell 2000 | +13.7% |
| Developed-market stocks outside the US | MSCI EAFE | +10.8% |
| Emerging-market stocks | MSCI Emerging Markets | +23.7% |
| US Treasuries | iShares 7–10 Year Treasury (IEF) | -4.63% |
| US aggregate bonds | Bloomberg US Aggregate | -2.9% |
| International bonds | Vanguard Total International Bond (BNDX), currency hedged | -1.17% |
| High-yield bonds | ICE BofA / Bloomberg US High Yield | +0.0% |
| Commodities | Bloomberg Commodity (BCI) | +32.46% |
| Gold | SPDR Gold Shares (GLD) | -3.9% |
| Listed US real estate | VNQ / FTSE Nareit | +7.9% |
All returns in this table are Madison Partners’ source-reported figures through September 30, 2026. Its commodity result is a diversified benchmark proxy; its gold and real-estate results use funds or index-related proxies, not a universal spot-gold or property return. Madison Partners’ September 2026 Market Update provides the underlying table.
Why the “winner” depends on the benchmark
Commodities and emerging markets stood out
In Madison Partners’ figures, the Bloomberg Commodity proxy gained 32.46% and MSCI Emerging Markets gained 23.7% through September 30. These are the largest positive returns in that table. The commodity figure describes a diversified commodity benchmark, not every commodity or a direct return from holding physical commodities.
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US large-cap stocks show a source gap
CIBC Private Wealth US reports a +14.1% total return for the S&P 500 through September 30, while Madison Partners reports +12.8% for the same named index and cutoff. The supplied sources do not reconcile the difference, so neither number should silently replace the other. CIBC also reports +15.5% for the Russell 2000, compared with Madison Partners’ +13.7%.
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CIBC’s bond figures provide another view: its chart shows -2.8% for the Bloomberg Aggregate Bond benchmark and -3.6% for the Bloomberg Intermediate Municipal benchmark, both through September 30. Those are distinct measures from Madison Partners’ Treasury, aggregate-bond, international-bond, and high-yield proxies. CIBC Private Wealth US’s September 30 chart labels its returns as total returns.
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Gold and commodities did not move together
The contrast between +32.46% for Madison Partners’ Bloomberg Commodity proxy and -3.9% for its GLD proxy is a notable divergence, not evidence that commodity prices as a whole rose while all gold prices fell. The two figures use different benchmarks and instruments. The World Gold Council’s gold data hub reports spot-price and return data on its own schedule, which is not the same measure as GLD’s fund return.
What may have shaped the results?
Interest rates were an important headwind for fixed-income proxies. CIBC attributed higher yields in the third quarter to inflation and deficit concerns, reporting that the 10-year Treasury yield rose about 0.75 percentage point during the quarter and reached levels not seen in nearly 20 years. That is CIBC’s account of the move, not a separately verified yield series here.
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Madison Partners says September’s rate rise pushed broad investment-grade bonds down about 2.7% and intermediate Treasuries down more than 3% in its September snapshot. It also says commodities edged higher as oil rose and gold fell as real yields increased. These are that firm’s reported measurements and explanation, not universal outcomes for every bond, commodity, or gold holding.
LSEG / FTSE Russell’s October 7 overview describes the broader tension this way: “Resilient earnings supported equities through renewed energy disruption, while inflation, fiscal concerns and tighter monetary policy pushed yields to cycle highs.” Its overview also highlights US large caps outperforming, Japan leading in US-dollar terms, energy leading commodities, and REITs and infrastructure lagging among alternative indices. LSEG’s October 2026 performance overview gives that wider context; its rankings should not be conflated with the September 30 table above.
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How to use the numbers without overreading them
- Check the cutoff. These comparable table figures end on September 30, 2026; they are not full-year 2026 results.
- Keep the proxy attached. A fund tracking gold, an equity index, and a bond benchmark measure different exposures and may use different return conventions.
- Do not treat a ranking as a forecast. A strong year-to-date return does not establish future performance or suitability for a particular investor.
- Account for methodology. Fees, income reinvestment, currency, and index construction can affect realized or reported returns; the cited tables do not provide one uniform convention for every row.
S&P Dow Jones Indices cautions that past performance is not an indication or guarantee of future results. It also notes that pre-launch index history can be hypothetical and back-tested, with actual returns potentially differing significantly and being lower. Those cautions matter whenever an index history is used to infer how an investable portfolio might behave. S&P Dow Jones Indices’ S&P Real Assets page explains these limitations.
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