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Outbyte PC Repair FREEClear out junk files and repair common Windows errorsFree Scan →Outbyte Driver Updater FREEScan for outdated or missing drivers - takes under a minuteDriver Scan →Satellite megaconstellations could contaminate many space-telescope images, but a 2025 study does not prove astronomy and satellite broadband cannot coexist. Its forecasts depend on proposed deployments and telescope designs—and the authors describe ways to reduce the impact.
What the study says about astronomy and megaconstellations
A study by Alejandro S. Borlaff, Pamela M. Marcum and Steve B. Howell, published in Nature on 3 December 2025 and subsequently updated with an author correction published 27 May 2026, modeled satellite trails in images from four low-Earth-orbit observatories. Its central warning is serious: if proposed constellation deployments reach roughly 560,000 satellites, trails could appear in a substantial share of exposures. But that is a conditional forecast, not a measurement of a completed constellation network or a verdict that the two activities categorically cannot coexist. Read the updated Nature article and correction record.
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The simulations incorporated factors such as exposure duration, Earth avoidance and viewing angle. They estimate both the share of exposures with at least one trail and the average number of trails in an exposure. Those are different measures: a telescope can have a high chance of at least one trail while also having a much larger average count when trails do occur.
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In the approximately 560,000-satellite scenario, the modeled chance of at least one trail varies sharply across the four missions. The table reports the study’s estimates, not current observed rates.
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| Observatory | Exposures with at least one trail | Average trails per exposure |
|---|---|---|
| Hubble Space Telescope | 39.6 ± 4.6% | 2.14 (−0.47/+0.46) |
| SPHEREx | More than 92% | 5.64 (−0.27/+0.28) |
| ARRAKIHS | More than 92% | 3.22 (−0.27/+0.27) |
| Xuntian | More than 92% | 92 (−10/+11) |
These are model estimates for the proposed-deployment scenario in Borlaff, Marcum and Howell’s Nature paper. The uncertainty ranges shown alongside average trail counts are the paper’s reported ranges; the Hubble percentage also carries the uncertainty reported by the authors. The paper explains the simulation and its results.
Why do the forecasts differ so much?
A satellite trail appears when a spacecraft crosses a telescope’s field of view during an exposure. The odds are shaped by more than the number of satellites: a wider field covers more sky, while orbit altitude, exposure time and pointing restrictions affect which satellites are visible and for how long. Earth-limb avoidance rules matter too. A space telescope is not automatically sheltered from satellites in orbit; visibility can include objects both above and below its own altitude, depending on the angle at which it avoids Earth.
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The study attributes Xuntian’s especially high modeled trail count in part to its lower orbit. The four missions also differ in field of view, observing plans and exposure characteristics, so their estimates should not be treated as interchangeable predictions for every space telescope. ARRAKIHS and Xuntian were still in development when the paper was prepared, and changes to their eventual configurations could change the results.
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What the forecast does—and does not—establish
The constellation inputs were based on filings available through March 2025. The roughly 560,000-satellite case assumes planned constellations are completed; it is not a count of satellites already deployed. Actual impacts therefore depend on whether and how those proposals proceed, on the final spacecraft and telescope designs, and on mission-specific observing choices.
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The authors characterize their work as a first-order forecast for imaging observations. It models optical trails in images, not every consequence of satellite networks for astronomy. The paper discusses the possibility that spectroscopy could be affected more severely, but that possibility is not quantified by its imaging forecast.
The concern also extends beyond space observatories. The National Academies’ Astro2020 decadal survey says megaconstellation impacts are noticeable for wide-field optical imaging and could become potentially severe for some programs, including near-Earth-object searches, unless mitigated. That is broader context from a separate 2023 assessment, not a result of the four-telescope simulation. See the National Academies’ Astro2020 discussion.
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Different satellite effects should not be conflated: optical streaks in images, possible increases in diffuse night-sky brightness, and radio-frequency interference are distinct concerns. The American Astronomical Society’s COMPASSE overview discusses all three; the Nature paper at the center of this article models optical trails in space-telescope images. Read the AAS COMPASSE overview.
Can space telescopes avoid satellite trails?
The authors do not treat contamination as unavoidable. They outline measures that could reduce it, including limiting satellite reflectivity and flares, supporting observations that characterize contamination, sharing spacecraft reflectance information with astronomers, and improving prevention, orbital prediction and correction. These measures address different stages of the problem: reducing reflected light at the spacecraft, helping observatories anticipate crossings, and improving how affected data are handled.
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Mitigation is not the same as eliminating every trail or guaranteeing that every observing program is unaffected. The paper’s forecasts show why solutions need to account for telescope-specific fields of view, orbits, pointing limits and exposure plans rather than relying on a single universal adjustment.
How does broadband access fit into the trade-off?
Satellite broadband has potential value for communities with limited connectivity, so the policy question involves more than image contamination alone. A 2021 SATCON2 community report acknowledged that some communities welcome satellite broadband while recommending that decision-makers evaluate alternatives, including fiber, alongside social costs such as debris and environmental effects. Its pricing examples and future projections describe the situation in 2021 and should not be read as current market figures. Read the SATCON2 community report.
The study therefore supports a more specific conclusion than its alarming headline might suggest: large proposed deployments could impose substantial, uneven costs on astronomical imaging unless their effects are addressed. It does not settle the broader access-versus-astronomy policy choice, nor establish that coexistence is impossible.
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