Penguin colonies decline for different reasons in different places. For emperor penguins in Antarctica, early sea-ice breakup can destroy the stable breeding platform chicks need; for African penguins in southern Africa, depleted or shifting prey and competition with fishing are major concerns. Scientists combine satellite images, drone photography, field counts and ecological sampling because each method measures a different part of the problem.
Why are penguin colonies declining?
There is no single explanation for declines across all penguin species. The strongest evidence here concerns two distinct situations: breeding habitat loss for emperor penguins in Antarctica, and food availability at sea for African penguins in southern Africa. These pressures should not be treated as interchangeable or as a complete account of every penguin population.
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Emperor penguins: unstable breeding ice
Emperor penguins breed on fast ice: sea ice attached to the coast, shoals or grounded icebergs. If that ice breaks up before chicks have developed waterproof feathers, they can be forced into the sea too early and suffer high mortality. The British Antarctic Survey (BAS) connected this mechanism to breeding failures observed in 2022 and 2023.
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1Fix the driver behind crashes, sound loss and screen glitches2Clear out junk files and repair common Windows errors3Scan for outdated or missing drivers - takes under a minuteIn its April 2026 Red List announcement, the International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) reported moving the emperor penguin to Endangered, identifying human-induced climate change—particularly early sea-ice breakup and loss—as the principal threat in its assessment. This is the assessment reported in that announcement, not evidence that ice is the only pressure on every colony.
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African penguins: less accessible prey
For African penguins, BirdLife International identifies diminished food availability as a major concern. It points to competition with commercial purse-seine fishing and climate-related changes in prey distribution; sardines and anchovies are important prey. BirdLife also identifies disease as an additional contributor. These findings describe the African penguin and should not be generalized to Antarctic species.
Because much of the pressure occurs at sea, it can be less visible than the birds gathered at a shore colony. BirdLife South Africa seabird conservation programme manager Alistair McInnes made that distinction in BirdLife International’s November 2024 account of the species.
What do the reported decline figures actually measure?
Breeding failure at a colony, a regional population trend and the number of penguins that died are different measures. The figures below have different scopes and should not be combined into one global estimate.
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| Finding | Scope and interpretation | Source |
|---|---|---|
| 14 of 66 colonies affected in 2023; 19 colonies, almost 30%, in 2022 | Emperor penguin colony impacts reported for each year. These are counts of affected colonies, not estimates that the same share of all emperor penguins died. | British Antarctic Survey, 2024 |
| 13 of 27 colonies studied were at risk; nine of those 13 experienced reduced or complete breeding failure at least once | East Antarctic study sample and six-year study period. It is not an estimate for all Antarctic colonies. | Australian Antarctic Program, 2024 |
| 22% decline from 2009 to 2024 | Emperor penguin numbers in a sector encompassing the Antarctic Peninsula, Weddell Sea and Bellingshausen Sea, based on regional satellite-image analysis. It is not a global estimate. | British Antarctic Survey, 2025 |
The numbers also illustrate why a breeding-failure report is not itself a population census. A colony may fail to produce chicks in a season without that result directly stating how many adults or chicks died across the species. Conversely, repeated failures can have consequences for future population size.
How do scientists count penguins in remote colonies?
Researchers use several methods together. Satellites help locate colonies and assess habitat over broad, remote areas; drones photograph aggregations; ground and aerial surveys support direct counts or abundance estimates. Guano and health monitoring answer ecological questions, but do not by themselves count the colony.
Satellite imagery finds colonies and records habitat
Emperor penguin guano can leave visible staining against snow and ice, allowing researchers to identify potential colonies in satellite imagery. BAS reported finding four new emperor penguin breeding sites using satellite imagery in 2024. Since colonies can shift location, repeatedly mapping sites matters: an image from one year may not represent where birds breed in another.
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Satellite images can also be used to examine local fast-ice conditions alongside colony locations. The Australian Antarctic Program has emphasized that colony positions vary in relation to sea ice, which complicates trend modelling. Australian Antarctic Division researcher Barbara Wienecke described satellite imagery as a way to identify colonies each year and assess the local environmental conditions affecting them.
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Drones capture aggregations for image-based counts
Drones can photograph large groups from above, making image-based counting possible at sites that are difficult to survey on foot. In NOAA Fisheries’ 2025 South Shetland Islands survey, teams conducted ground and drone surveys of major penguin colonies. The Adélie project describes using drone images for larger aggregations and hand counts for smaller ones.
Image counts may include a human review stage. BAS’s Polar Observatory citizen-science project asked volunteers to validate counts made from drone images. The resulting figures still depend on suitable images and a counting and validation process; a photograph is not automatically a finalized estimate.
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Ground and aerial surveys provide direct checks
Researchers can count animals directly during site visits or aerial surveys, providing an important check on what imagery suggests. Long-running local counts also give scientists a record against which to compare newer observations. At Taylor Glacier, the Australian Antarctic Program reports a colony-count series ongoing since 1957. Access to that protected site is restricted, so surveys operate under specific limits.
Sampling investigates diet and health
NOAA Fisheries reports collecting penguin guano for genetic diet analysis and monitoring birds for signs of highly pathogenic avian influenza. Diet analysis can help investigate what penguins are eating; disease surveillance can detect health risks. Neither method alone estimates colony abundance.
Why combine methods instead of relying on one count?
Each method answers a different question and has a different reach. Satellite imagery can revisit remote locations and connect colony observations with habitat, but it does not replace direct counts. Drone images can capture large aggregations, while field or aerial surveys provide complementary observations. Ecological sampling helps explain diet or health rather than how many birds are present.
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Combining those observations also helps researchers interpret change cautiously. A shift in colony location can complicate comparisons between years, and different sites may experience different ice conditions. NOAA’s report on its January 2025 South Shetland Islands survey said final animal counts and highly pathogenic avian influenza analyses were still pending at publication; those field activities should not be presented as finalized estimates.
For any reported trend, check the species, place, time period and measure. A regional emperor penguin decline, a count of colonies with breeding failure, and a finding about African penguin prey pressures each describe a distinct result—not a universal cause or a single global penguin trend.
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