The smartphone chip shortage is chiefly a squeeze on DRAM and NAND memory—not proof that all chips or all phones are disappearing. Its effect can still reach buyers through higher prices, fewer affordable models, reduced memory or storage at a given price, and tighter choice. The pressure is expected to be uneven: entry-level phones are more exposed, while premium models and larger manufacturers may be better positioned to absorb costs. Forecasts for 2026 have shifted sharply, so none should be mistaken for a final count or a prediction of what a particular shop has in stock.
Which chips are in short supply?
The current smartphone concern centers on DRAM and NAND, the memory used for a phone’s working memory and storage. IDC linked pressure on their supply to rising demand from AI infrastructure and workloads, alongside manufacturers directing some capacity toward higher-margin memory products. IDC also estimated that memory accounts for 15–20% of the bill of materials for a mid-range phone and 10–15% for a high-end flagship in its 2025 analysis. Those shares help explain why memory costs matter to phone makers; they do not mean retail prices must rise by the same percentage.
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When memory is harder to secure or costs more, manufacturers have several ways to respond: raise prices, accept slimmer margins, offer fewer low-cost configurations, reduce memory or storage at a given price, or shift their product mix toward higher-priced devices. Which response appears depends on the manufacturer, model, and market.
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What do the 2026 forecasts say?
Forecasts published during 2026 differ substantially. They were made at different points in a fast-moving market and use different assumptions, so they are not directly interchangeable or observed full-year results.
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| Publisher and date | Forecast | Important context |
|---|---|---|
| Gartner, February 26, 2026 | Worldwide smartphone shipments down 8.4% in 2026 versus 2025; prices up 13% by the end of 2026 versus 2025. | Forecast, not a measured full-year outcome. |
| Omdia, March 4, 2026 | Global smartphone shipments down around 7% in 2026. | Baseline based on Q1 memory-price assumptions that anticipated some easing in the second half. |
| Omdia, March 4, 2026 | Shipments down more than 15% in 2026. | Downside scenario if memory prices keep rising and geopolitical pressures intensify. |
| IDC, September 2026 | Worldwide smartphone shipments down 16.7% in 2026, to just over 1 billion units; average selling price of $581, up 27.6% year over year. | IDC’s September outlook also reported NAND and DRAM costs up more than 300% year over year. These are IDC’s reported figures and forecasts, not a universal retail-price change. |
The range—from a single-digit shipment decline in earlier forecasts to a much steeper September estimate—shows how quickly expectations changed. A worldwide average cannot establish whether a specific phone will cost more or be available in your country.
Which phones and buyers may feel the squeeze most?
Entry-level phones
Gartner said rising memory costs would disproportionately affect entry-level smartphones. IDC likewise described low-end vendors with thin margins as more exposed to cost increases. In this segment, makers may have less room to absorb higher component costs, which can mean higher prices, fewer choices, or compromises in a model’s configuration.
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Premium phones and larger vendors
Gartner assessed premium phones as relatively less affected because of their higher margins. IDC said Apple and Samsung have structural advantages such as scale and longer-term supply agreements. These are comparative advantages identified by analysts, not guarantees that any brand or model will hold its price or remain in stock.
Buyers deciding whether to upgrade
People shopping on a tight budget may have fewer attractive new-phone options if costs are passed through or cheaper configurations become less common. Gartner said some buyers may keep existing devices longer or choose refurbished and second-hand phones. Gartner Senior Director Analyst Ranjit Atwal said: “Higher prices will narrow the range of devices available, prompting buyers to hold on to devices for longer, fundamentally altering upgrade cycles.”
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How to make a buying decision
- If your current phone still works for you: keeping it longer is one option Gartner identified. The market forecasts do not establish that waiting will save you money, so base the decision on your device’s condition and needs.
- If you need a replacement: compare live offers from sellers in your country. Check the exact memory and storage configuration, total price, local stock, and seller support; a global forecast cannot tell you what a particular listing costs or whether it is available.
- Consider refurbished or second-hand devices: compare condition, configuration, total cost, and the seller’s support or return terms. Their suitability depends on the specific listing and local protections.
- If considering financing: compare the actual terms and eligibility in your market rather than treating monthly payments as a measure of the phone’s total cost.
For premium phones, financing may affect affordability in some developed markets, but the cited analysis does not establish current provider terms or eligibility. IDC Vice President for Worldwide Client Devices Francisco Jeronimo summarized the component link this way: “The components that make AI possible are the same ones in short supply, and their cost is being passed straight through to the shelf.”
Independent reader supportYour contribution helps us test, update, and keep practical guides available for everyone.What the forecasts cannot tell you
The cited forecasts describe global market expectations, not guaranteed local outcomes. They do not provide current country-by-country prices, product-level inventory, or a reliable answer to whether a particular buyer should buy now or wait. Stock and pricing can vary by retailer, model, and configuration; check current local listings before deciding.
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- BUILT TO LAST: With an improved IP54 rating, Galaxy A17 5G is even more durable than before.⁴ It’s built to resist splashes and dust and comes with a stronger yet slimmer Gorilla Glass Victus front and Glass Fiber Reinforced Polymer back.
Product prices and availability are accurate as of the date/time indicated and are subject to change. Any price and availability information displayed on Amazon at the time of purchase will apply.
