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World desk6 min

U-turn: The high cost of cheap urea

India’s urea subsidy protects access and supports production, but the price advantage for nitrogen raises difficult questions about nutrient balance, pulses, public cost and supply security.
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Cheap urea helped Indian farmers raise food production, but keeping it cheaper than other nutrients has also encouraged imbalanced fertiliser use, according to climate-tech investor Mridula Ramesh. The policy challenge is not simply to make urea dearer: it is to improve nutrient use without abruptly cutting farmers’ incomes or putting food production at risk.

Why did India make urea cheap?

Urea is a concentrated source of nitrogen, a nutrient plants need to grow. In her October 2, 2026, Hindustan Times article, Mridula Ramesh credits synthetic urea with helping lift productivity during the Green Revolution. Keeping fertiliser affordable also serves an explicit policy purpose: the Government of India’s Notes on Demands for Grants describe the subsidy as a way to make fertilisers available to farmers at reasonable prices while providing producers a reasonable return.

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The trade-off is built into the price system. When the price farmers pay for one nutrient is held down relative to others, the cheapest input can look attractive even where a crop or soil needs a different balance. The outcome can be more nitrogen use than is agronomically appropriate, alongside underuse of phosphorus and potassium. Ramesh argues that this price distortion is one reason cheap urea carries costs beyond the government’s subsidy bill.

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Why is cheap urea a problem for Indian agriculture?

It can skew nutrient use

Plants need nitrogen (N), phosphorus (P) and potassium (K), but their needs vary with crop, soil and stage of growth. There is no single ideal NPK ratio for every field. In her 2026 article, Ramesh reports an average Indian NPK ratio of 10.9:4.4:1 and a Punjab ratio of 50:2:1. These are figures reported by the article, not independently verified here, and they should not be read as recommended ratios for individual farms.

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The point of the comparison is the imbalance: when urea is kept comparatively cheap while phosphorus- and potassium-based fertilisers become relatively more expensive, farmers have an incentive to apply more nitrogen. But more is not automatically better. Nutrient decisions need to reflect the crop and the field rather than the relative price alone.

It may make pulses less attractive

Ramesh links cheap synthetic nitrogen to weaker incentives to grow pulses. Pulses are food crops and, as legumes, can also contribute nitrogen to farming systems. If fertiliser pricing favours nitrogen-intensive production, farmers may have less economic reason to diversify into pulses. That is a policy argument about incentives, not proof that urea prices alone determine crop choice; markets, yields, procurement and local growing conditions also matter.

The article reports that a 2025 paper found legume cover crops increased yields by 16.0% across 3,160 observations in 35 countries. That estimate is the article’s account of the paper, which is not independently assessed here; it concerns cover crops across the analysed observations, not a guaranteed yield gain for every Indian farm.

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Some nitrogen can carry environmental costs

Nitrogen that crops do not take up can contribute to water pollution, while nitrogen fertiliser production and use are associated with greenhouse-gas emissions. Ramesh reports a global cradle-to-grave estimate of 1.13 billion tonnes of CO2-equivalent emissions from synthetic nitrogen fertiliser in 2018, and says nitrous oxide is 273 times as powerful as CO2. Those are figures reported by the article; the underlying study and the time horizon for the potency comparison were not independently checked here. They describe a global estimate and a general comparison, not an India-specific emissions inventory.

The article also reports that around 70% of Soil Health Card samples were deficient even in nitrogen. The underlying dataset and sample details have not been independently verified here. The reported figure complicates any simple prescription to cut nitrogen everywhere: if a field is deficient, reducing application without soil- and crop-specific guidance could worsen the problem. The relevant goal is better-matched nutrition, not a blanket reduction.

What does the subsidy cost, and what does it buy?

The Government of India’s Department of Fertilizers 2026-27 Outcome Budget allocates ₹1,16,805 crore to the Urea Subsidy scheme. That is the scheme’s official outlay, not the same figure as the ₹1.71 lakh crore estimate for the Department of Fertilizers cited by Ramesh in her article. The latter has not been independently verified here, and the two figures cover different scopes.

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The same Outcome Budget sets the following targets for 2026-27:

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Measure Government target
Domestic urea production 296 lakh metric tonnes
Reduction in imports 2 lakh metric tonnes
Total urea sales 392 lakh metric tonnes
Urea availability 422 lakh metric tonnes

These are budget targets, not reported outcomes. The government’s grant notes say imports are arranged because domestic production is insufficient to meet fertiliser demand. The subsidy therefore sits at the intersection of farm affordability, producer returns, domestic production and supply security—not solely the question of whether nitrogen is being applied efficiently.

Does a low farmer price mean urea is cheap to produce?

No. The price paid by farmers and the cost of making or importing urea are different things; the subsidy bridges some of that gap. Ramesh says the price Indian farmers paid for urea was about one-tenth of the American retail price in the period following the Russia-Ukraine war. That is her article’s comparison, and the underlying price definitions were not independently checked. Without matching product, date, taxes, delivery and retail conditions, it should not be treated as a precise like-for-like price ratio.

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Low prices can protect farmers from input-cost shocks, but they also shift part of the bill to public spending and can weaken the price signal that would otherwise encourage balanced nutrient choices. Removing support too quickly could transfer costs to farmers; retaining it unchanged may preserve the distortion. Any reform has to address both sides.

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Why does dependence on imported gas matter?

Natural gas is an important input in fertiliser production. Ramesh reports that imported gas accounted for about 85% of gas used by India’s fertiliser sector from April 2025 to January 2026, and that urea production fell from 24.7 lakh tonnes in March 2025 to 17.5 lakh tonnes in March 2026 amid gas disruption. These are article-reported figures whose underlying data has not been independently checked.

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The vulnerability is straightforward: subsidised prices do not by themselves secure the energy feedstock needed to manufacture urea. A disruption in gas supply can constrain domestic output even when the government wants fertiliser available at affordable prices. The official budget’s import-reduction target indicates a production and supply objective, but it does not eliminate exposure to imported inputs.

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What changes does Ramesh argue for?

Ramesh’s proposed direction is to move from cheap nitrogen as the default toward more balanced nutrient use, change part of the subsidy mechanism and give pulses greater support. One proposal she discusses, by Ashok Gulati and Ritika Juneja in 2024, would replace part of the fertiliser subsidy with direct cash transfers while allowing prices to better reflect costs. This is a proposal described in her article, not a policy adoption confirmed by the 2026-27 budget documents cited here.

Those ideas involve practical trade-offs:

Approach Potential benefit Key challenge
Improve nutrient balance Could better align fertiliser use with crop and soil needs. Farmers need reliable, field-specific guidance; a uniform cut in nitrogen could harm deficient fields.
Shift part of input support to direct transfers Could reduce the incentive created by a particularly low price for one fertiliser. Farmers still need timely, adequate support, and higher input prices can strain incomes.
Support pulses and crop diversity Could strengthen incentives for crops that contribute to a more diverse farming system. Farmers’ choices also depend on local growing conditions and whether the crop has a reliable market.

The central test for reform is whether it improves nutrient decisions while keeping fertiliser accessible and farm incomes viable. A change in price alone cannot supply the local advice or market conditions that make a different choice workable.

What should a farmer take from the debate?

The policy debate is not a recommendation to stop using urea. For a farmer deciding what to apply, the relevant question is what the crop and soil need, not whether a fertiliser is politically or economically labelled cheap. Soil testing and crop-specific nutrient advice are more useful than adopting a national ratio as a field-level prescription. The article’s reported Soil Health Card figure, if accurate, is itself a reason to avoid assuming every farm has excess nitrogen.

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Ramesh captures the political difficulty in one sentence: “Convincing farmers that cheaper urea is not necessarily better urea will not be easy.” The challenge is to make balanced choices both agronomically sound and financially practical, rather than asking farmers to absorb the cost of correcting a price distortion on their own.

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