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Scan for outdated or missing drivers - takes under a minuteDriver Scan →Repair Windows errors before they cause bigger problemsFix Now →The September 2026 U.S. S&P Global Manufacturing PMI was 55.9, up from 53.9 previously but below the reported forecast of 57.0, according to Investing.com and its economic calendar. The rise signals improving conditions from the prior reading; because the index stayed above 50, it indicates expansion rather than contraction. Missing the forecast describes a shortfall against an expectation, not a downturn by itself.
What the September PMI figures say
| Measure | September 2026 S&P Global U.S. Manufacturing PMI |
|---|---|
| Actual | 55.9 |
| Previous | 53.9 |
| Forecast reported by Investing.com | 57.0 |
| Change from previous | +2.0 index points |
| Difference from forecast | −1.1 index points |
The point changes are arithmetic differences between the values reported by Investing.com and its calendar. The forecast is the figure those sources list; they do not establish a specific consensus methodology.
How to interpret “surpasses previous, falls short of forecast”
The two comparisons answer different questions. At 55.9, the index was 2.0 points higher than its previous 53.9 reading, indicating improvement relative to that earlier survey result. But it was 1.1 points below the 57.0 forecast, so it did not meet the expectation recorded by Investing.com.
A forecast miss does not mean the index fell, nor does it establish why the result differed from expectations. These three numbers alone also do not show what happened in individual industries or PMI components.
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What a PMI reading measures
The Purchasing Managers’ Index is a survey-based indicator of business conditions. In S&P Global’s explanation, the diffusion index weights survey responses according to whether respondents report conditions as higher, the same, or lower: higher responses count as 1, unchanged responses as 0.5, and lower responses as 0. S&P Global’s PMI FAQ gives the calculation as: “Index = (Percentage of survey respondents reporting ‘higher’) *1.0 + (Percentage of survey respondents reporting ‘the same’)*0.5 + (Percentage of survey respondents reporting ‘lower’)*0.0”.
The 50 mark is the dividing line used to interpret the index: above 50 indicates expansion in the surveyed conditions, while below 50 indicates contraction. Thus, 55.9 indicates expansion, even though the result was below forecast. It is a survey index, not a direct measure of the percentage increase in manufacturing output.
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Do not confuse the S&P Global reading with ISM’s PMI
The headline figures refer to the S&P Global U.S. Manufacturing PMI. ISM publishes a separate U.S. manufacturing survey, so its readings should not be substituted for the previous or actual value in the S&P Global series. S&P Global’s FAQ distinguishes its PMI surveys from other series, including the U.S. ISM survey.
For September 2026, the Institute for Supply Management reported its own Manufacturing PMI at 54.5, down from 54.6 in August, in its September report. That is a different series from S&P Global’s 55.9; the two figures describe different surveys and should be labeled accordingly.
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What this result does—and does not—establish
- It establishes: the reported S&P Global reading rose from its previous value and remained above the 50 expansion threshold.
- It also establishes: the result was below the forecast value listed by Investing.com.
- It does not establish: a cause for the forecast miss, a change in a particular PMI component, or a resulting market move.
The contemporaneous exact data triplet is reported in Investing.com’s article and calendar; a primary S&P Global final-release page for this U.S. reading is not identified here. The figures should therefore be attributed to Investing.com rather than presented as independently confirmed by an S&P Global release.
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