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Scan for outdated or missing drivers - takes under a minuteDriver Scan →Repair Windows errors before they cause bigger problemsFix Now →Between 2021 and 2025, 55.2% of incoming investment in AI firms came from other AI firms, according to a Bank for International Settlements (BIS) analysis. That is a measure of investment flows into AI firms—not a claim that 55% of all AI spending, revenue or capital expenditure is funded by AI companies.
What does the 55.2% figure measure?
BIS Bulletin 137, Circular relationships among AI firms, reports that other AI firms supplied 55.2% of incoming investment in AI firms over 2021–2025. The authors describe these linked investments as circular investment relationships. The statistic is about the source of incoming investment; it does not cover every dollar spent across the AI economy.
The bulletin reports a separate measure as well: 28.7% of AI firms’ investment deals by value involved an AI-firm target during the same period. This looks at where AI firms’ investment deals went, rather than where incoming investment came from. The two percentages answer different questions and should not be combined.
How do investment and commercial ties overlap?
BIS also examined AI-to-AI investment deals that involved a commercial supply-chain relationship between the investor and target. It reports two different shares:
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| Measure, 2021–2025 | Share | What it describes |
|---|---|---|
| AI-to-AI deals with a commercial supply-chain relationship, by deal count | 16.1% | The share of deals by number that also involved the reported commercial relationship. |
| AI-to-AI deals with a commercial supply-chain relationship, by deal value | 46.4% | The share of deal value associated with those overlapping relationships. |
The difference matters: 16.1% describes how often the overlap appeared among deals, while 46.4% weights the measure by value. The value-weighted share is higher, so a count-only description would tell a different story from one focused on deal value. Neither figure means that every AI-to-AI investment has a commercial tie.
Why might AI firms invest in one another?
BIS says circular investment relationships may reflect firms’ need to secure critical inputs and the presence of information asymmetries. In practical terms, a firm may have strategic reasons to invest in another firm that supplies something important, while investors may not have equally complete information about the value or risks of a young or fast-changing business.
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The bulletin’s authors also warn that these relationships can increase opacity and entail macroeconomic risks. That is a risk framing, not evidence that a particular investment is improper or that the AI sector is necessarily a financial bubble. The bulletin’s key takeaway is: “Circular investment relationships reflect key economic features such as the need to secure critical inputs and the presence of information asymmetries, yet they entail macroeconomic risks and increase opacity.”
What the statistic does—and does not—say about AI funding
The 55.2% figure is not a measure of all AI-related financing, spending or investment. It should not be restated as the share of AI companies’ revenue, corporate capital expenditure, government funding or total spending on AI systems that comes from AI firms.
Scope matters when comparing it with other estimates. The OECD’s 2025 report, for example, explicitly focuses on venture-capital investment in AI firms and cautions that venture capital is only one vantage point. It does not capture other forms of investment, including internal investment by public companies and government investment. That narrower VC scope is not directly comparable to BIS’s incoming-investment measure.
Independent reader supportYour contribution helps us test, update, and keep practical guides available for everyone.Who published the analysis?
The BIS published Bulletin 137 on 1 October 2026. Its authors are Jon Frost, Rudraksh Kansal, Kumar Rishabh, Vatsala Shreeti and Leanne Si Ying Zhang. The publication states: “The views expressed in this publication are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the BIS or its member central banks.”
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The accessible publication summary reports these headline measures and interpretation, but does not establish the exact sample construction, transaction database or estimation method. Those methodological details should not be assumed from the percentages alone.
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