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Random freezes, missing sound and display glitches usually trace back to one bad driver. Find and replace yours safely.Free scan · under a minuteIn Backblaze’s historical fleet data, an adjusted analysis found a lower failure hazard for Western Digital (WD) drives than for Seagate drives. That is useful evidence about the drives and operating conditions represented in the dataset—not proof that every WD model is more reliable, that current models follow the same pattern, or that either brand will perform the same way in a home PC or NAS.
What the 443,000-drive study found
Christoph Siemroth and Yeomyung Park analyzed Backblaze hard disk drive data covering 443,156 drives and more than 1.66 million drive-years, from 2013 through the second quarter of 2025. The study compared four manufacturers represented in that fleet: HGST, Seagate, Toshiba, and Western Digital. After adjusting for observed factors including drive age, capacity, form factor, and operating temperature, the reported manufacturer comparison placed WD’s failure hazard below Seagate’s. HGST’s was lower still, while Toshiba’s was slightly above Seagate’s. Read the study.
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The paper describes its question as whether the four manufacturers in the Backblaze dataset “show differences in short- to medium-term HDD failure rates.” The findings therefore speak to that dataset and period; they are not a universal brand ranking.
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The data comes from Backblaze’s production fleet, not a randomized consumer test. Statistical adjustment helps account for selected characteristics, but it cannot turn fleet averages into a prediction for an individual drive or erase differences among models, generations, workloads, and environments.
#1 Best Overall
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- Designed to work with Windows or Mac computers, this external hard drive makes backup a snap just drag and drop
- To get set up, connect the portable hard drive to a computer for automatic recognition no software required
- This USB drive provides plug and play simplicity with the included 18 inch USB 3.0 cable
- The available storage capacity may vary.
- It can: provide a historical, adjusted comparison of manufacturer-level failure hazard within the analyzed Backblaze fleet.
- It cannot: establish that every WD drive fails less often than every Seagate drive, rank all currently sold models, or predict the lifespan of a drive in your own system.
- It does not mean: an annualized failure rate (AFR) is the probability that a specific drive will fail during the next year. AFR is a rate calculated from observed failures and drive time.
Backblaze explains its drive statistics and AFR reporting on its drive-statistics page.
Why the brand name is not enough
A manufacturer-level result averages across drives that may differ substantially. When comparing two candidates, start with their exact model and generation, then consider how and where they will run.
Rank #2
- Easily store and access 1TB to content on the go with the Seagate Portable Drive, a USB external hard drive.Specific uses: Personal
- Designed to work with Windows or Mac computers, this external hard drive makes backup a snap just drag and drop. Reformatting may be required for Mac
- To get set up, connect the portable hard drive to a computer for automatic recognition no software required
- This USB drive provides plug and play simplicity with the included 18 inch USB 3.0 cable
- The available storage capacity may vary.
- Identify the exact model and generation. A brand-wide average cannot establish which of two particular models is the better choice.
- Match capacity and form factor. These were among the characteristics included in the study’s adjusted analysis, and they also matter to whether a drive fits your system.
- Match workload and duty cycle. A desktop drive and one intended for always-on NAS or data-center service may face different operating demands. Workload is a practical buying consideration, not a finding established by this study.
- Consider operating conditions and age. The paper adjusted for drive age and temperature, but the fleet result does not predict how a drive will behave in your particular environment.
- Weigh warranty, support, price, and downtime. These are purchase factors beyond the study’s manufacturer comparison. The cost of losing access to data may matter more than a small difference in a fleet-level estimate.
How to read Backblaze’s model-level figures
Backblaze’s annual reports provide useful context, but a model’s result for one year is not a long-term guarantee or a recommendation for a current purchase. Sample size and drive exposure matter when interpreting a low number of observed failures.
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| Reported figure | What it describes |
|---|---|
| 1.36% AFR in 2025, down from 1.55% in 2024 | Backblaze’s fleet-wide annual figures, reported in 2026; they are not the study’s adjusted manufacturer comparison. Backblaze’s 2025 report. |
| 1 failure among 1,066 drives | The Seagate ST12000NM000J 12TB model in Backblaze’s 2025 report. Read the failure count together with the number of drives and their exposure. Backblaze’s 2025 report. |
| 0.22% AFR in 2024 | The Seagate ST16000NM002J 16TB model in Backblaze’s report published in 2025. This is a model-specific fleet observation for that year, not proof of long-term superiority or a current recommendation. Backblaze’s 2024 data report. |
Backblaze notes that a 1% AFR means one drive out of 100 can be expected to fail in a year at that rate. That describes a rate across observed drives, not a promise about any one drive. See Backblaze’s explanation.
Rank #3
- Easy-to-use desktop hard drive—simply plug in the power adapter and USB cable
- Fast file transfers with USB 3.3
- Drag-and-drop file saving right out of the box
- Automatic recognition of Windows and Mac computers for simple setup (Reformatting required for use with Time Machine)
- Enjoy peace of mind with the included limited warranty and Rescue Data Recovery Services
So, are Seagate or WD hard drives more reliable?
For the historical Backblaze fleet data analyzed, the adjusted comparison favored WD over Seagate on failure hazard. For a real purchase, that result is best treated as one piece of context: compare the specific drives you can buy, their intended workload and operating conditions, and the consequences of failure. The study does not settle which currently available consumer or NAS model will be more reliable for you.
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