A 2023 reconstruction estimates that seawater lithium concentration declined from about 184 μmol/kg of water roughly 150 million years ago to 27 μmol/kg today—an approximately sevenfold decrease. The study’s geochemical-cycle model points chiefly to lower ocean-crust production and weaker hydrothermal exchange at mid-ocean ridges and their flanks. Those ancient values are reconstructed from geological evidence, not direct measurements of ancient seawater.
What the sevenfold decline means
The comparison is between estimated seawater lithium concentrations, not the total amount of lithium in the ocean. Weldeghebriel and Lowenstein’s 2023 study reports about 184 μmol/kg H₂O at approximately 150 million years ago and 27 μmol/kg today. The authors characterize that change as roughly sevenfold.
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The long-term direction is downward, but the record is not a smooth, uniform slide. The same study estimates high concentrations in parts of the Jurassic and Cretaceous, followed by substantially lower values in later intervals. Its fitted trend of about 1.2 μmolal per million years summarizes the long-term pattern; it should not be read as a rate that applied steadily in every period.
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Ancient seawater cannot be sampled directly, so the study used fluid inclusions—tiny pockets of seawater preserved in marine halite, or rock salt. The authors measured lithium-to-magnesium ratios in those inclusions and combined them with published estimates of ancient seawater magnesium concentrations to calculate lithium concentrations. The conversion treats lithium and magnesium as conservative ions for this purpose.
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That makes the results a proxy-based reconstruction rather than a direct measurement. The estimated concentrations depend on both the inclusion measurements and the paleomagnesium estimates used in the calculation. The full study is available from PubMed Central; its publication is Weldeghebriel and Lowenstein, “Seafloor hydrothermal systems control long-term changes in seawater [Li+]: Evidence from fluid inclusions” (2023).
What the reconstructed record shows
The authors report estimates across several geological intervals, illustrating why the overall decline should not be mistaken for a perfectly smooth curve:
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| Geological interval | Reported seawater lithium concentration |
|---|---|
| Kimmeridgian–Tithonian, 155.7–145.5 million years ago | 156–184 μmolal |
| Albian–Cenomanian, 112.2–93.5 million years ago | 156–184 μmolal |
| Eocene, around 36 million years ago | 68 ± 8 μmolal |
| Serravallian–Tortonian, about 14–11 million years ago | 45–53 ± 3 μmolal |
| Messinian, about 6–5 million years ago | 43 ± 3 μmolal |
These interval estimates and the endpoint figures are reported by Weldeghebriel and Lowenstein (2023). The paper gives the long-term trend estimate as about 1.2 μmolal per million years over roughly 150 million years; this is a fitted average, not a claim that every interval changed at that pace.
Why the authors point to seafloor hydrothermal systems
The study’s lithium-cycle model identifies long-term decreases in ocean-crust production and in hydrothermal fluxes at mid-ocean ridges and ridge flanks as the chief controls on the reconstructed concentration decline. In broad terms, the proposed explanation is that changes in ocean-floor production and circulation altered the exchange of lithium between seawater and the oceanic crust.
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This mechanism is a model interpretation of the proxy record, not a direct measurement of ancient hydrothermal flow. The authors’ abstract says the modeled decline does not require changes in continental weathering fluxes to explain the concentration trend. That does not resolve every question about weathering’s role in other lithium records.
Independent reader supportYour contribution helps us test, update, and keep practical guides available for everyone.Seawater lithium concentration is not lithium isotope composition
The reconstruction concerns lithium concentration, written [Li⁺]SW. It is distinct from the isotopic composition of seawater lithium, commonly written δ⁷LiSW, which describes the relative abundance of lithium isotopes rather than how much lithium is present. A concentration change and an isotope-ratio change are different observations; evidence for one should not be presented as direct evidence for the other.
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The authors discuss their concentration record in relation to the debate over the Cenozoic rise in δ⁷LiSW. Proposed explanations for that isotope rise include changes in continental weathering, marine clay processes, and isotopic fractionation at oceanic sinks. A 2026 Nature Communications article argues from its own paleowater record and lithium-cycle model that continental silicate weathering from tectonically active mountains is unlikely to explain the observed isotope rise. That work addresses isotope interpretation; it is not an independent replication of the 150-million-year concentration reconstruction.
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How the trend fits into broader geological change
The lithium decline parallels long-term changes in seawater Mg/Ca and ⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr, as well as shifts in evaporite mineralogy, the balance between calcite and aragonite seas, and climate from greenhouse to icehouse conditions. These are broad geological associations. Their co-occurrence does not establish that declining lithium caused those other changes.
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