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On Holding has the stronger disclosed near-term growth outlook. Its latest reported quarter showed faster sales growth and management expects low-20% constant-currency growth for 2026. Nike’s latest quarter was down year over year, and its FY2027 outlook calls for a high-single-digit revenue decline. That gives On the stronger operating-growth case—not necessarily the better stock to buy, because valuation and expected investment returns cannot be judged from growth figures alone.
What the latest results and outlook say
The comparison uses different fiscal periods: Nike’s latest results are for the first quarter of FY2027, ended August 31, 2026; On’s are for the second quarter and first half of calendar 2026, ended June 30. The figures below are company-reported. Nike’s figures and outlook are from its October 1, 2026 release; On’s are from its August 11, 2026 release.
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| Measure | Nike | On Holding |
|---|---|---|
| Latest quarterly sales | $11.2 billion; down 4% reported and 5% currency-neutral in Q1 FY2027. | CHF 850.3 million; up 13.5% reported and 21.6% constant currency in Q2 2026. |
| Full-year sales outlook | FY2027 revenue expected to decline by a high-single-digit percentage. | FY2026 sales expected to grow in the low-20% range constant currency, or CHF 3.47–3.56 billion at current spot rates. |
| Latest gross margin | 42.8%, up 60 basis points year over year in Q1 FY2027. | 65.4%, up 3.9 percentage points year over year in Q2 2026. |
| Profitability outlook | Adjusted diluted EPS of $1.15–$1.35 for FY2027, excluding about $0.15 of Pace restructuring expense, according to Nike. | FY2026 adjusted EBITDA margin of 19.5%–20.0%, according to On. Adjusted EBITDA is a non-IFRS measure. |
The sales-growth figures use each issuer’s stated currency adjustment: Nike reports currency-neutral growth, while On reports constant-currency growth. They indicate the direction and pace of each company’s business, but do not remove differences in fiscal calendars, product mix, or reporting. The outlooks are management expectations, not guarantees.
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Growth spans channels and regions
On’s quarterly growth was not limited to one sales channel or geography. Direct-to-consumer (DTC) grew faster than wholesale, and the company reported constant-currency sales growth in EMEA, the Americas, and APAC. APAC accounted for 20.0% of quarterly sales, with reported strength in China, Japan, and South Korea. That breadth supports the view that On is scaling beyond a single market, while making the company’s ability to sustain growth in fast-expanding regions increasingly important.
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On said it was deliberately managing wholesale sell-in in a promotional market, aiming to protect full-price selling and leave room for upcoming product launches. That makes slower wholesale growth a strategic choice in management’s account, rather than clear evidence of weakening end demand. The trade-off is that investors still need to watch whether consumer demand supports the more DTC-led mix.
New categories are growing quickly, but footwear still dominates
Apparel and accessories posted rapid constant-currency growth in Q2 2026, but shoes still represented 91.9% of On’s sales. The newer categories offer room to broaden the business; their growth rates should not be mistaken for a contribution currently comparable with footwear.
Rank #2
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Margins are an advantage, not proof that scaling is easy
On reported that Q2 gross margin rose from 61.5% to 65.4% despite higher U.S. import duties and without tariff refunds. It attributed the improvement to operational efficiencies, freight, a higher DTC share, premium positioning, and favorable foreign-exchange effects. Management’s full-year margin outlook suggests confidence in profitability as the company grows, but selling, retail, and marketing costs are also increasing as it invests and expands.
The durability question is whether On can preserve premium demand and full-price discipline while widening its products, channels, and reach. Risks identified in its 2025 Form 20-F include brand resilience, innovation and strategy execution, competition, economic and political conditions, operations, distribution, and suppliers.
Rank #3
- Mesh on upper adds breathability.
- Foam midsole delivers a soft ride.
- Flex grooves create a cushioned effect for your run.
- Waffle outsole is a made of a durable, flexible material that helps keep you on the move.
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Why Nike’s growth prospects are weaker for now
The near-term business is contracting
Nike’s latest release describes a company working through a reset, not one currently forecasting a return to growth. Its quarterly channel mix was uneven: North America grew, but Greater China and EMEA declined, with China weakness a major factor in the overall result. Nike Direct fell more than wholesale, including declines in both Nike Brand digital sales and company-owned stores.
Management has said more work is needed in Sportswear, Jordan Brand, and Greater China, while its “Sport Offense” strategy is intended to build performance-business momentum. The scale of the FY2027 sales decline in the outlook means successful execution has yet to show up as a near-term growth forecast.
Rank #4
- Mesh on upper adds breathability.
- Foam midsole delivers a soft ride.
- Flex grooves create a cushioned effect for your run.
- Waffle outsole is a made of a durable, flexible material that helps keep you on the move.
- HM9594-001
Turnaround savings bring costs and execution risk
Nike expects the Pace operating-model transformation to generate approximately $2.5 billion in cumulative savings through FY2031, before expected charges and future reinvestment. The company estimates around $1.0 billion in pre-tax charges through FY2031, in addition to about $0.3 billion of FY2026 severance costs, and expects about $0.3 billion of charges in FY2027. These are management estimates, not assured savings or earnings gains; timing, implementation, and reinvestment will affect what shareholders ultimately see.
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Nike’s Q1 FY2027 gross-margin increase was attributed primarily to lower warehousing and logistics costs. Its preceding Q4 FY2026 gross-margin increase included an approximately 900-basis-point benefit from the expected recovery of IEEPA tariffs. That unusual contribution means the Q4 jump should not be treated as a normal run rate or as evidence, on its own, of recurring operating improvement.
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- The mesh upper offers a comfortable, breathable feel.
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How to interpret the comparison as an investor
- Revenue growth: Separate actual quarterly performance from full-year guidance, and keep each company’s currency-adjusted measure attached to the figure. On currently leads both on reported momentum and on management’s near-term growth outlook.
- Growth quality: Consider whether growth is spread across channels, regions, and products, and whether it depends on discounting. On’s DTC-led strategy and stated full-price discipline are relevant, but the business remains heavily weighted to footwear.
- Profitability: Gross-margin percentages are not a complete measure of comparable profitability; company mix and reporting differ. Nike’s adjusted EPS guidance and On’s adjusted EBITDA-margin guidance are different measures and should not be treated as equivalent.
- Execution: Nike’s central challenge is restoring momentum while carrying out its transformation. On’s is sustaining premium demand and expanding without sacrificing brand appeal or operating discipline.
- Valuation and shareholder return: Growth does not establish whether a share is attractively priced. This comparison does not assess contemporaneous share prices, valuation multiples, forward earnings estimates, or expected returns, so it cannot settle which stock is the better buy.
Verdict
On Holding has the stronger disclosed operating-growth prospects as of October 4, 2026: its latest sales trend is positive and management expects continued rapid growth, while Nike’s latest results and FY2027 guidance point to contraction. On’s lead is not a prediction of stock performance. Nike could deliver a recovery if its strategy works, and On must prove it can sustain growth as it scales; deciding between the shares also requires valuation and risk analysis beyond the operating outlook.
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