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Market cap and fully diluted valuation (FDV) use the same token price but different supply figures: market cap uses circulating supply, while FDV applies the current price to a maximum-supply estimate. Neither tells you by itself what a token is worth or where its price will go. To judge the difference, check the supply definitions, issuance and unlock schedule, recipients, liquidity, and demand.
What is the difference between market cap and FDV?
Both figures multiply a token price by a supply count. The denominator determines what the result describes:
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| Metric | Formula | What it represents |
|---|---|---|
| Circulating market capitalization | Current token price × circulating supply | A snapshot using the units a provider estimates are circulating in the market and in public hands. |
| Fully diluted valuation (FDV) | Current token price × maximum supply estimate | A hypothetical valuation if the maximum estimated number of units were valued at today’s price. |
| Minted market cap | Current token price × total supply | The value calculated from units currently in existence, excluding verifiably burned units under CoinMarketCap’s methodology. |
| Unlocked market capitalization | Current token price × unlocked circulating supply | A measure based on units classified as unlocked; unlocked units are not necessarily being offered for sale. |
These definitions follow CoinMarketCap’s supply methodology. Providers can use different definitions or verification practices, so identify the data source and check its methodology before comparing figures. CoinMarketCap also emphasizes that “Circulating Supply is not Unlocked Supply” in its market-cap methodology.
A simple example
Suppose a token trades at $2, has 100 million circulating units, and has a stated maximum supply of 1 billion. Its circulating market cap is $200 million ($2 × 100 million), and its FDV is $2 billion ($2 × 1 billion). This is arithmetic, not a claim that either figure is the token’s intrinsic worth. FDV does not mean that $2 billion has been invested, and it does not predict that the price will remain $2 as supply changes.
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Why is FDV higher than market cap?
When the maximum-supply estimate exceeds circulating supply, multiplying both by the same price produces a higher FDV. The gap can indicate that additional units may enter circulation, but it does not tell you when they will enter, who will receive them, or whether holders will sell.
Supply labels matter. Total supply counts units already in existence under a provider’s rules; maximum supply is a cap or estimate of units that could exist. Unlocked supply describes units that are no longer subject to lockup restrictions, while circulating supply is the provider’s estimate of units circulating in the market and in public hands. These categories are related but not interchangeable.
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How to evaluate the gap
- Confirm the supply figures and their definitions. Record circulating, total, maximum, and unlocked supply from the same provider where possible. Check whether maximum supply is fixed, estimated, or unavailable, and how the provider verifies the figures.
- Calculate the circulating share with its denominator stated. Divide circulating supply by maximum supply to see what fraction of that stated maximum is circulating. If you instead use total supply as the denominator, say so: the result answers a different question. A ratio is a snapshot, and its meaning depends on the token’s issuance design.
- Read the release schedule. Look for unlock dates, amounts, recipient groups such as team, investors, community, treasury, or rewards, and details such as cliffs, vesting cadence, and ongoing emissions. Scheduled unlocks can create potentially sellable supply; they do not establish that recipients will sell.
- Assess liquidity and demand. Supply figures do not show how much can be sold without moving the price. Consider trading liquidity and evidence of actual token use alongside the schedule. A large amount of potential supply may matter differently depending on the market’s capacity to absorb it and the demand for the token.
- Check the token’s supply rules. Burns, variable emissions, or uncapped or algorithmic issuance can make a simple FDV incomplete or dependent on assumptions. State those assumptions; if there is no meaningful fixed maximum, an FDV based on a maximum-supply estimate may be unavailable.
- Use the gap as a prompt, not a verdict. A large FDV relative to market cap is a reason to investigate dilution and supply dynamics. It is not, by itself, proof a token is overvalued or a forecast that its price will fall.
How to compare two tokens fairly
Do not compare headline market caps or FDVs without checking whether both providers define and calculate supply the same way. A useful comparison puts the assumptions and potential supply pressure side by side:
- Circulating share: show circulating supply as a fraction of the stated maximum, or clearly identify another denominator.
- Scheduled releases: compare near-term and cumulative unlocks, their dates, and recipient groups.
- Supply design: note whether maximum supply is fixed, how new units are issued, and how burns affect supply.
- Liquidity: assess whether trading markets could absorb potential selling without assuming the quoted price is stable at every trade size.
- Demand: examine evidence of token use rather than inferring demand from branding or a project’s stated purpose alone.
For broader context, valuation analysis may also consider the protocol or blockchain’s activity and economics; CoinMarketCap Academy discusses these alongside supply-related measures in its crypto asset valuation overview.
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What FDV can—and cannot—tell you
FDV makes the current price and a maximum-supply estimate easier to compare in one number. Its limitation is built into the calculation: it applies today’s price to units that may not yet exist or circulate. It does not model future demand, issuance timing, market liquidity, or the price response to additional supply. CoinMarketCap’s FDV explainer discusses why a gap can raise dilution concerns, while its emissions explainer describes how issuance can affect token economics. Their examples are specific to their publication dates, not universal forecasts.
For project-specific figures, include the data provider and observation date. Supply and price can change, and a release calendar describes planned or scheduled availability—not guaranteed selling.
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