A hurricane forecast cone shows uncertainty in the predicted location of a tropical cyclone’s center—not the storm’s full size, the area that will be hit, or a boundary beyond which it is safe. In the 2026 season, the National Hurricane Center (NHC) is issuing an experimental ellipse-based cone alongside its standard circle-based cone, so check which graphic you are viewing before interpreting its shaded area.
What does the hurricane cone mean?
The standard NHC cone represents uncertainty in the storm center’s forecast track. It is formed by joining circles around forecast positions at 12, 24, 36, 48, 60, 72, 96 and 120 hours. NHC describes it as “the probable track of the center of a tropical cyclone.” NHC’s definition of the track forecast cone explains the construction.
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Each circle’s radius is based on the historical errors in official center-track forecasts. For the 2026 operational cone, NHC uses the 2021–2025 error sample and sets the radius so that two-thirds (67%) of those historical errors at that forecast lead fall within the circle. Radii vary by basin and lead time; they are not measurements of the current storm.
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The values below are nautical miles from the forecast center position to the edge of the circle. Atlantic and Eastern/Central Pacific figures differ, and the radii generally grow at longer forecast leads because historical track errors tend to be larger farther ahead.
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| Forecast lead | Atlantic radius | Eastern/Central Pacific radius |
|---|---|---|
| 12 hours | 25 nautical miles | 25 nautical miles |
| 24 hours | 39 nautical miles | 37 nautical miles |
| 36 hours | 49 nautical miles | 48 nautical miles |
| 48 hours | 62 nautical miles | 56 nautical miles |
| 60 hours | 77 nautical miles | 66 nautical miles |
| 72 hours | 95 nautical miles | 78 nautical miles |
| 96 hours | 134 nautical miles | 106 nautical miles |
| 120 hours | 200 nautical miles | 138 nautical miles |
These are the 2026 radii published by the National Hurricane Center. NHC notes that annual forecast errors vary with the season’s track characteristics, so a cone’s shape and radius should not be read as a fixed physical property of a storm.
Does the cone show where the hurricane will hit?
No. It communicates uncertainty about where the center may travel; it does not mark a predicted landfall zone or say that every place inside it will be hit. Nor does it give a guarantee that the center will remain inside the cone. NHC reports that historically the full five-day center path has stayed within the conventional cone about 60–70% of the time. That whole-path statistic is different from the 67% historical-error calibration used for each circle; neither figure is a probability that a particular place will experience impacts.
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Can a hurricane affect places outside the cone?
Yes. A tropical cyclone is not a point: damaging weather can extend many hundreds of miles from its center, and tropical-storm- or hurricane-force winds may reach beyond the track cone. NHC explicitly cautions that the cone does not represent the storm’s size or the area that will experience hazardous weather. NHC’s guidance on forecast uncertainty and wind probabilities explains the distinction.
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- Wind-field graphics: Review the forecast wind radii and their legend. NHC says the displayed radii represent the maximum possible extent of a wind speed within each quadrant; not every point in an orange or red shaded area will necessarily experience those sustained winds. NHC’s graphics guidance describes this limitation.
- Wind-probability graphics: For point-specific wind risk, consult probabilities that account for uncertainty in track, intensity and storm size.
- Local alerts: Check current watches and warnings from the relevant local authorities, along with the latest NHC advisory. Alerts and forecast layers can change as the storm evolves.
How is the 2026 experimental cone different?
During the 2026 hurricane season, NHC is issuing an experimental ellipse-based cone in addition to the standard operational cone. The two graphics use different constructions and should not be interpreted with the same percentile explanation.
| Feature | Operational cone | Experimental cone (2026) |
|---|---|---|
| Shape | Circles around forecast center positions | Ellipses anchored at forecast positions |
| Error basis | 67th percentile of absolute track errors from the preceding five years; 2026 radii use 2021–2025 errors | Separate 90th-percentile estimates of along-track and cross-track errors from the previous five years |
| What error dimensions represent | Overall distance between forecast and observed center positions | Along-track error (the storm is faster or slower than forecast) and cross-track error (the storm is left or right of forecast) |
| Status | Standard operational graphic | Experimental graphic issued alongside the operational product |
NHC says the experimental ellipses represent the likely track area of the storm’s center. Its 90th-percentile axes are not the operational cone’s 67th-percentile circle threshold. NHC is soliciting feedback on the experimental product through November 30, 2026. See the NHC cone information for the current product explanation.
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Does the cone show the storm’s size?
No. The cone’s width comes from historical forecast-track error statistics, not the width of the storm’s wind field. To understand the storm’s possible reach, inspect the separate wind-field and probability products and follow local watches and warnings rather than treating the cone edge as a hazard limit.
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