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A gold mine production schedule is a year-by-year forecast, not a record of actual output or a promise of future results. To understand a project’s economics, follow its planned tonnes and gold through processing, costs, and cash flow—and check that the study’s assumptions and definitions match the figures being compared.
Start with the report’s context
Before interpreting a headline number, identify the report and the case it models. Record its study stage, effective date, jurisdiction, currency, ownership basis, and whether results are pre-tax or after-tax. Then note the reserve or resource basis and the assumptions for gold price, exchange rate, recovery, and discount rate.
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These details matter because a technical report is a dated, project-specific model. A later report may change the mine design, schedule, estimates, or economic assumptions. For example, Centerra Gold’s 2025 Mount Milligan report describes changes to price assumptions, pit design, recovery, throughput, capital and operating costs, and the resulting schedule. Read the Mount Milligan technical report filed with the SEC.
For Canadian disclosure, National Instrument 43-101 requires principal assumptions to be stated and justified, along with annual cash-flow forecasts using the production schedule and reporting of NPV, IRR, and payback. See the consolidated NI 43-101 regulation.
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Read the production schedule year by year
Do not begin and end with the life-of-mine (LOM) total. Read across each year or period and trace the planned material through the mine and mill. Depending on the report, the schedule may show:
- Tonnes mined and tonnes sent to the processing plant.
- Ore grade, recovery assumptions, and resulting gold output.
- Strip ratio, stockpile additions or drawdowns, and mine development.
- Pre-production, ramp-up, peak output, declining production, and closure periods.
Check what the gold column actually measures: contained, recovered, payable, or sold ounces are not interchangeable. Reconcile annual rows to the LOM totals, and establish whether the schedule uses reserves alone or includes resources outside the reserve case.
Then verify that the economic analysis uses this same schedule. Annual timing matters: the same total ounces can produce different cash flows if ounces, capital spending, and operating costs fall in different years. NI 43-101 calls for annual cash-flow forecasts based on the project’s annual production schedule over its life. NI 43-101 disclosure requirements.
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Separate capital costs from operating costs
Capital expenditure (CAPEX) and operating expenditure (OPEX) answer different questions. Initial or pre-production capital funds construction and development before steady production. Sustaining capital is spent during operations to maintain or replace assets. Closure and reclamation spending may occur near or after the end of production.
For a capital estimate, check whether it includes owner’s costs, indirect costs, contingency, working capital, taxes, royalties, off-site charges, and closure. A headline capital total may not include every one of these items.
Operating-cost categories also vary. Reports may separate mining, processing, general and administrative (G&A), transport, royalties, treatment and refining, or selling and marketing. Before comparing totals, map each report’s categories to common definitions and account for omissions.
Check the unit denominator
A unit cost is meaningful only when you know what it is divided by. Cost per tonne mined is not directly comparable with cost per tonne processed; cost per ounce produced may differ from cost per ounce sold. Likewise, “cash cost” and “all-in sustaining cost” (AISC) are defined measures, not synonyms for total project cost. Read the report’s definitions and reconciliations.
Example: Côté Gold’s 2018 feasibility estimate
IAMGOLD and SLR Consulting estimated Base Case LOM operating costs of US$2,947 million in the November 2018 Côté Gold feasibility report: US$1,366 million for mining (46%), US$1,283 million for processing (44%), and US$298 million for G&A (10%). The report also gives average total operating cost of US$14.52 per tonne processed, comprising US$6.73 mining, US$6.32 processing, and US$1.47 G&A. The LOM total, category shares, and per-tonne figure describe different aspects of that project’s estimate; none is a general benchmark. Find IAMGOLD’s Côté Gold technical reports.
Example: Mount Milligan’s 2025 estimate
Centerra Gold’s 2025 Mount Milligan technical report lists estimated operating costs of US$7,156 million, or US$14.82 per tonne, over its stated estimate basis. Its categories include mining, processing, administration, transportation, royalties, treatment and refining, and selling and marketing. These are project- and report-specific estimates, not a benchmark for other mines. Read Centerra’s Mount Milligan technical report.
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Inspect how the estimate was built
Look for the basis behind both quantities and unit rates. A report may explain how it used mine design and phased scheduling, labour and equipment assumptions, metallurgical testwork, fuel and reagent consumption, vendor quotations, contractor inputs, benchmarks, or historical operating data. Also check the estimate date, currency, escalation, exchange rate, contingency, exclusions, and who prepared or reviewed each estimate.
NI 43-101 calls for disclosure of major cost components and an explanation and justification of the estimate basis. See the regulation.
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A free scan shows the junk files, broken settings and background clutter dragging Windows down - then fixes them in one click.Free scan · Windows 10 & 11The Côté feasibility report illustrates this kind of disclosure: it says mining quantities came from first-principles estimates and phased mine planning; process costs drew on first principles, testwork, salary and benefit guidelines, recent vendor quotations, and historical benchmarks; G&A used first principles and benchmarks; and closure costs came from a detailed closure estimate with stated adjustments. That provenance helps explain how estimates were assembled, but does not establish that the assumptions will be realized or support a universal accuracy range. Côté Gold technical reports.
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Trace the schedule into cash flow and project economics
Follow each year’s planned production into revenue and costs, then into cash flow. Check when capital is spent, whether ramp-up costs are included, how sustaining capital is treated, and when closure payments occur. Establish whether the model includes taxes, royalties, and other government interests, and read the gold-price and exchange-rate assumptions alongside the cost currency.
NPV depends on the discount rate and the timing of cash flows; IRR and payback depend on the assumed sequence of those cash flows. Compare pre-tax with pre-tax, and after-tax with after-tax, using the same discount-rate basis where relevant. NI 43-101 calls for reporting NPV, IRR, and payback along with annual cash-flow forecasts. NI 43-101.
Use the report’s sensitivity analysis to see how specified changes in gold price, grade or recovery, capital cost, operating cost, or exchange rates affect the results. A favorable base case is conditional on its mine design, estimates, prices, schedule, and approvals; it does not guarantee production or returns. Centerra’s Mount Milligan report provides a concrete example of how changes in assumptions and design can alter a schedule and its economics. Mount Milligan technical report.
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Compare projects only after aligning the basis
Before ranking projects by cost per ounce, NPV, or another headline figure, reconcile the major differences in what is being measured:
- Study stage and effective date.
- Reserve or resource basis and mine life.
- Annual production profile, grade, recovery, and throughput.
- Estimate currency, price date, exchange rate, and escalation basis.
- CAPEX scope, contingency, and treatment of sustaining capital and closure.
- OPEX categories and unit-cost denominators.
- Pre-tax or after-tax basis, discount rate, taxes, royalties, and sensitivities.
If any of these differ, reconcile the definitions and scope before drawing a cost or value comparison. Without that work, a lower-looking unit cost or higher NPV may reflect a different basis rather than a more attractive project.
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