U.S. stocks have historically tended to perform better in the 12 months after midterm elections than during the midterm year itself—but the size of that pattern changes with the index, return measure, dates, and sample period. It is a historical tendency, not evidence that an election causes a rally or a dependable signal for timing investments.
Does the stock market usually go up after midterms?
In the historical analyses cited here, the answer is usually, but not always. Fidelity Viewpoints reported in August 2026 that the S&P 500 posted a price gain in the 12 months after midterms 95% of the time since 1938. That frequency describes the past sample; it does not guarantee a gain after a future election.
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Fidelity’s 2024 chart gives a different but related view: average S&P 500 returns were 3.4% in the midterm presidential-cycle year and 14.7% in the following year. Those figures use successive November 30-to-November 30 periods from 1950 through 2023, rather than a simple Election Day-to-one-year-later window.
Why do published midterm return figures differ?
They often measure different periods and kinds of return. A calendar-year result can include months before Election Day; a post-election result starts at or near the election. Price returns exclude dividends, while total returns account for them. The S&P 500 is also a particular U.S. large-company index, not a measure of every stock or global markets.
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| Publisher and figure | What it measures | How to read it |
|---|---|---|
| Fidelity Investments, 2024: Year 1, 8.3%; Year 2, 3.4%; Year 3, 14.7%; Year 4, 9.1% | S&P 500 returns across four successive November 30-to-November 30 presidential-cycle periods, using data from November 30, 1950 to November 14, 2023. | Year 2 is the midterm cycle year; Year 3 is the following cycle year. These are cycle-period averages, not calendar-year figures. |
| Fidelity Viewpoints, 2026: about 5% in Year 2 and about 14% in the following 12 months; 95% positive frequency | Its analysis says the S&P 500 had price gains in 95% of 12-month periods after midterms since 1938. The two return averages are rounded figures. | The stated 12-month frequency and rounded averages are separate summaries. Do not treat them as the same return calculation as Fidelity’s 2024 chart. |
| BlackRock, 2026: 7.5% versus 12.4% | Average annual U.S. stock returns in midterm years versus non-midterm years. | These calendar-year averages compare different year groups; they are not a post-Election Day return estimate. |
| BlackRock, 2026: 14.1% versus 5.7% | Average S&P 500 total return in the six months following midterms since 1970 versus non-midterm comparison periods. The comparison uses hypothetical dates; BlackRock says the Bloomberg data were as of August 13, 2026. | This is a six-month total-return comparison indexed around election dates, not a 12-month price return. |
| BNY Investment Strategy & Research Group, 2026: 16.6% | Average S&P 500 price return in the 12 months after midterms since the 1950s, calculated as of May 4, 2026. | This is a 12-month price-return figure, not a total-return measure. |
These are publisher-reported statistics, not calculations independently recomputed from raw market observations. They should not be combined into a single “midterm return” number. When comparing a new figure, check its index, price or total-return definition, exact start and end dates, sample period, and whether it is an average, median, or positive-return frequency.
What does the historical pattern say—and not say?
It describes an association, not a cause
One explanation offered by Fidelity is that campaigns and elections can create uncertainty about taxes, regulation, government spending, and other policies. After voting, some uncertainty may ease. That is a plausible channel, not proof that the election itself caused later gains. Denise Chisholm, Fidelity’s director of quantitative market strategy, says: “Markets don’t necessarily respond to voting results. However, they have tended to respond to improvement in economic policy clarity,” and adds, “Things rarely get to ‘clear.’ They just get to ‘less unclear,’ and that is usually enough for investors.”
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Average returns conceal very different outcomes
Averages can be pulled up or down by unusually strong or weak periods. Fidelity’s August 2026 article says midterm-year returns have ranged from a 27% drawdown to gains near 40%. A positive historical average therefore does not describe what happened in every election cycle, nor the path an investor experienced within one.
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Corporate earnings, business investment, economic conditions, interest rates, inflation, and valuations can all affect returns. Chisholm says: “The overall level of political uncertainty can fuel volatility, yet the market’s core drivers are things like earnings growth and leading indicators of economic growth.” A change in political control is not, by itself, a dependable basis for choosing sectors or predicting the market’s direction.
Independent reader supportYour contribution helps us test, update, and keep practical guides available for everyone.How should investors use midterm return history?
Use it as context for understanding volatility, not as a trading rule. Before reacting to election forecasts or historical averages, consider whether a decision still fits your goals, time horizon, risk tolerance, and portfolio allocation. Fidelity vice president of capital markets strategy Anu Gaggar puts the distinction succinctly: “Vote in the booths, not in your portfolios.”
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