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When AI companies report different revenue figures, first check whether they are measuring the same thing. Recognized revenue, contractual annual recurring revenue (ARR) and an annualized run rate are different metrics; they can cover different dates, business scopes and treatments of cloud-partner sales. Put those details beside each figure before comparing growth.
What does each revenue figure actually measure?
A headline may call several different measures “revenue.” The label alone is not enough: record the definition and time basis before drawing a conclusion.
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| Measure | What it describes | What it does not establish by itself |
|---|---|---|
| Recognized revenue | Revenue reported for a completed accounting period, such as a quarter or fiscal year. | It does not show how much the company expects to earn in the next year, or how much recurring business it has at a particular date. |
| Contractual ARR | A company-defined annualized measure of recurring contractual revenue at a point in time. | It is not automatically revenue recognized during a year, nor necessarily a forecast. Companies may define and calculate it differently. |
| Annualized run rate | A recent sales or revenue pace projected across a year. For example, a hypothetical $1 billion in sales in one month multiplied by 12 produces a $12 billion annualized pace. | It is not a full year of booked revenue. The result depends on the period selected and assumes that pace continues. |
Amplitude, Inc.’s 2025 Form 10-K defines ARR as contractual subscription revenue at a point in time and says it should be viewed independently of revenue; it is not GAAP revenue on an annualized basis. Its 2024 Form 10-K adds, “ARR is also not intended to be a forecast of revenue.” That distinction is useful well beyond software: do not treat an ARR label as proof that a company earned that amount during the year.
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They may use different definitions
There is no single standardized ARR definition established here. Amplitude’s 2024 Form 10-K says it is not aware of uniform standards for calculating key metrics and cautions that this can hinder comparisons. One company’s ARR may include only contracted subscriptions; another company’s similarly named figure may have a different scope or calculation.
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They may use different dates or periods
A fiscal-year revenue total covers a completed period. A run rate may extrapolate sales from a recent month or another short window. If the underlying pace is growing quickly, volatile or seasonal, different snapshot dates can produce materially different annualized figures even when neither calculation is presented as a full-year result.
They may present partner sales gross or net
In its October 8, 2026 report, Axios said Anthropic counts the full value of some sales through partners in its topline and records the cloud provider’s cut as an expense, while OpenAI records only its share of certain partner sales. Axios described both treatments as GAAP-compliant and noted that presentation can depend in part on the parties’ roles in the transaction, including who controls the customer relationship and is responsible for delivery.
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Illustratively, if a customer pays a cloud provider $100 for a service and the provider retains $20, a gross presentation could show $100 of revenue and $20 of expense; a net presentation could show $80 of revenue. This is only a simplified example, not a description of every contract. Even when companies use accounting treatments that comply with GAAP, differently presented topline figures are not directly comparable without understanding the transactions behind them.
How should you read the OpenAI and Anthropic figures?
The dated reports illustrate why the metric, date and basis belong with the number. These are reported private-company figures and estimates, not a pair of audited comparative statements.
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| Source and date | Figure reported | How to interpret it |
|---|---|---|
| Axios, September 3, 2026 | Anthropic’s annualized revenue was expected to exceed $65 billion that year; OpenAI’s was expected to exceed $40 billion. | Forward-looking annualized figures based on recent sales, not realized fiscal-year totals. Axios said the companies annualized recent sales in broadly similar ways but differed in the treatment of some partner sales. |
| The Latent, July 31, 2026 estimate | $65 billion for Anthropic and $40 billion for OpenAI. | Estimated month-end annualized run rates. The series combines reported anchors with modeled interpolation; it is not booked revenue. |
| Axios, October 8, 2026 | About $50 billion for OpenAI, roughly $20 billion below a previously reported $70 billion figure. | Axios said the $70 billion figure was an attempt to gross up OpenAI’s number for a more direct comparison using Anthropic’s methodology. Preserve that earlier figure’s comparison basis rather than presenting it as OpenAI’s latest reported figure. |
These figures should not be collapsed into one definitive ranking or growth rate. They refer to different dates, reporting contexts and, in the case of the $70 billion figure, a grossed-up comparison. The Latent’s July series is a useful labeled context estimate, not a replacement for company accounts. Axios also cautioned that accounting treatment did not explain the entire reported gap.
What should you check before comparing growth?
Make a short record for every number you want to compare. If a detail is not disclosed, mark it as unknown rather than filling the gap with an assumption.
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- Metric: Is it recognized revenue, contractual ARR or an annualized run rate?
- Date and period: Is the figure for a completed quarter or fiscal year, or a snapshot annualized from a recent period? Record the exact as-of date.
- Scope: Does it cover the whole company, a product line or a sales channel? Note any stated exclusions.
- Partner accounting: Are intermediary or cloud-partner sales shown gross or net? Where is the partner’s cut recorded?
- Evidence: Is the number from an audited filing, a company statement, investor material reported by media, a third-party estimate or a modeled series?
- Durability: Where disclosed, examine customer retention and expansion, customer concentration, margins, cash flow and the costs of delivering the service.
Keep recognized revenue, ARR and annualized run rate in separate columns. Do not calculate a growth rate across mismatched definitions, scopes or dates; align those first. Label estimates and modeled values explicitly, and update older private-company figures when more recent primary disclosures become available.
What can public filings add?
Public filings can show recognized revenue alongside a company’s own definition of ARR and other operating measures. They are useful for understanding how a business frames its metrics, but a filing’s definition does not make the same label comparable across companies.
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For example, Amplitude, Inc.’s 2026 Form 10-K reports $343.2 million in fiscal 2025 revenue and $299.3 million in fiscal 2024 revenue, a 15% year-over-year increase for the fiscal years ended December 31, 2025 and 2024. Separately, its 2024 Form 10-K reports ARR of $312 million at December 31, 2024, versus $281 million at December 31, 2023, an 11% year-over-year increase. The revenue and ARR figures cover different measures and reporting periods; their percentages are not interchangeable. The filing also reports dollar-based net retention separately, illustrating the kinds of customer-expansion measures readers can inspect alongside revenue.
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