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Prepare paired x and y data
Place the independent-variable values (x) and dependent-variable values (y) in separate columns, with each matching observation on the same row. Keep both columns numeric and make sure they contain the same number of data points; the trendline fits the relationship between the paired values.
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Insert an XY scatter chart
Select the two data columns and insert an XY (scatter) chart. Unlike a category-based chart, a scatter chart uses numeric value axes for both variables and plots each row as an x-y point. This makes it suitable when the x-values are numeric or have irregular intervals. See Microsoft’s overview of available chart types.
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Add the linear trendline
- Select the chart. In Excel’s chart-element route, open Chart Elements and choose Trendline. Microsoft also documents the desktop ribbon route: Chart Design > Add Chart Element > Trendline.
- Choose Linear from the trendline options.
- If the chart contains multiple data series, apply the trendline to the series whose x-y relationship you want to fit. Depending on the Excel version and platform, you may need to select the series first or choose the target series through the chart controls.
Microsoft’s instructions begin by selecting a chart and then selecting Trendline; the exact controls can differ across desktop, Mac, and web versions. See Microsoft’s trendline instructions.
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Show the equation and R-squared value
Open the trendline’s formatting options and enable Display Equation on chart and, if useful, Display R-squared value on chart. These labels are optional and can be enabled independently. Microsoft describes a linear trendline as a least-squares fit with the equation y = mx + b, where m is the slope and b is the intercept. The equation is a compact description of the fitted line; the R-squared label summarizes how well that line fits the data. See Microsoft’s trendline options.
Interpret the fit carefully
A high R-squared value does not by itself show that x causes y, nor does it guarantee accurate predictions beyond the x-values in your observed data. Check whether a straight-line pattern is reasonable for the points before relying on the fit. If the relationship appears curved, a linear trendline may not represent it well; Excel offers other trendline forms, but they answer a different modeling question.
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Troubleshoot common problems
Trendline is unavailable
Select the chart or the intended data series and check that the chart type supports trendlines. In the chart-element route, Microsoft notes that the Trendline option appears when a chart with more than one series is selected without first selecting a data series; other routes let you select the target series explicitly.
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Check that x and y values are numeric, paired on the same rows, and aligned to the intended series. A mismatch can produce an incorrect chart or prevent a formula cross-check from working.
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Cross-check the fit with RSQ
Excel’s RSQ(known_y's, known_x's) function calculates R-squared from the known y and x values. Microsoft documents that unequal point counts return #N/A, while a single data point returns #DIV/0!. This formula is a check on the data supplied to the calculation, not a replacement for examining whether a linear model is appropriate. See Microsoft’s RSQ function reference.
R-squared changes when the intercept is fixed at zero
When you force the trendline’s intercept to zero, Excel’s displayed R-squared can depend on the Excel version. Microsoft says Excel version 2005 (May 2020) changed the internal calculation, with later updates documented for specified versions. As a result, an older workbook may display a different R-squared value in a newer release even though the line itself looks unchanged. Check the version and the zero-intercept setting before comparing such values. See Microsoft’s explanation of the calculation changes.
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Calculate fitted values separately (optional)
If you need predicted y-values in worksheet cells rather than only a line on the chart, Excel’s TREND function fits a least-squares straight line to known x and y values and returns values for specified new x-values. It is not required to add a chart trendline. See Microsoft’s TREND function reference.
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