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AI data centers are changing the U.S. landscape chiefly by adding large, steady electricity loads in places where grid capacity, new generation, transmission and local rules determine whether projects can move forward. Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory’s June 2026 reference case estimates data centers will use 649 terawatt-hours (TWh) of U.S. electricity in 2030—11.8% of the national total—but its wide uncertainty range makes clear that this is a forecast, not a settled outcome.
How large could data-center electricity demand become?
The most useful national 2030 benchmark is Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory’s June 2026 report. Its reference case estimates 649 TWh of U.S. data-center electricity consumption in 2030, or 11.8% of total U.S. electricity use. The lab’s compounded uncertainty bounds are 521–843 TWh, equivalent to 9.5–15.3% of total U.S. electricity. These are modeled outcomes, not measured future consumption or a guarantee that demand will land at the midpoint.
The lab’s bottom-up model considers planned shipments of IT equipment, device-level annual electricity use, cooling-system performance, facility types and locations. Changes in equipment shipments, use and cooling assumptions can therefore shift the estimate.
Why other projections may look different
| Source and forecast | What it measures | Reported estimate |
|---|---|---|
| Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, June 2026; 2030 | U.S. data-center electricity consumption at the facility level | Reference case: 649 TWh, or 11.8% of U.S. electricity; compounded uncertainty range: 521–843 TWh, or 9.5–15.3%. |
| U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), AEO2026; 2050 | Electricity used by data-center servers, across EIA scenarios; not a directly equivalent whole-facility estimate | 446–818 billion kilowatt-hours (kWh) across cases. Servers account for 22–33% of commercial-building electricity use across those cases. |
The two projections differ in forecast year, scope and modeling framework, so their values should not be compared as if they were competing estimates of the same quantity. EIA’s 2050 figures are server electricity within a commercial-building analysis; Berkeley Lab’s 2030 figure covers data-center electricity at the facility level. EIA also models cooling and ventilation as part of the energy needed to support servers, with data-center floorspace cooling averaging as much as 2.9 times the energy intensity of non-data-center floorspace in its model.
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EIA describes server demand as essentially flat across the hours of a day. That steady operating profile matters to power systems differently from annual energy totals: TWh measures electricity over time, while a grid must also meet demand at particular moments and locations.
Which regions may face the most grid pressure?
EIA’s February 2026 short-term outlook identifies the ERCOT and PJM grid regions as the fastest expected load-growth areas through 2027. It projects average annual load growth from 2025 to 2027 of 10% in ERCOT and 3% in PJM. EIA also points to data-center demand growth in parts of the central U.S. served by MISO and SPP, as well as Arizona and Nevada. These are regional forecasts; impacts depend on local grid conditions and the scenario used.
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The same EIA analysis modeled a high-demand case while holding generating capacity to the assumptions in its February outlook and allowing greater use of existing generation. Against that outlook, the model put ERCOT’s 2027 wholesale electricity price $37 per megawatt-hour (MWh) higher, and PJM’s $2.60/MWh higher, a 4% increase. These are scenario results—not observed prices, predictions of retail bills or a promise that those changes will occur. EIA notes that the analysis was completed using the February outlook and may differ from later forecasts.
Why location matters as much as national demand
A national forecast cannot show whether a particular project can connect to a particular grid. Developers need access to power and an interconnection; utilities and grid operators must consider available generation, transmission capacity and the load’s operating pattern. Cooling needs and local policy also influence where projects are feasible. As a result, growth can be concentrated in particular grid regions even when a national total appears manageable.
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For any proposed site, distinguish annual energy use from peak demand, and ask what grid region serves it, what generation and transmission are available, and whether upgrades are required. A regional growth forecast is not a project-specific engineering assessment.
Are the federal sites announced by DOE approved data-center projects?
No. On April 3, 2025, the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) announced an initiative involving 16 potential federal sites and issued a request for information (RFI) to inform possible land use and public-private partnerships. DOE cited existing energy infrastructure and research facilities as relevant advantages, and set a target of beginning operations by the end of 2027 at selected sites. The announcement describes a search and a target; it does not establish that all 16 locations are approved, under construction or operating.
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That distinction is important when tracking the buildout: a named site, a proposed partnership, a permitted project and an operating data center are different stages. DOE Secretary Chris Wright described the initiative as a way to leverage domestic resources to power AI while delivering affordable, reliable and secure energy. That statement expresses the department’s rationale, not an independent finding about the initiative’s results.
Independent reader supportYour contribution helps us test, update, and keep practical guides available for everyone.Who benefits, and who pays for infrastructure?
Data centers can bring construction activity, ongoing jobs and economic activity, while also raising questions about electricity supply, grid upgrades, reliability and how infrastructure costs are allocated. The answers depend on the project, utility arrangements, local workforce and tax rules, and the condition of the relevant grid; national estimates do not settle the effects on a particular community.
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DOE’s resource hub describes a policy approach that includes adding or procuring power supplies, paying for required power-delivery upgrades, separate rate structures, workforce investment and coordination with grid operators. These are agency-described policy commitments and frameworks, not proof that every data-center project follows each measure or a universal statutory requirement.
Put the Virginia figures in context
DOE’s resource hub reports industry estimates for Virginia of 74,000 jobs, $5.5 billion in labor income and $9.1 billion in annual state economic contribution. Those figures are Virginia-specific estimates attributed to the industry through DOE, not independently audited national totals. They do not establish what a particular proposed facility will contribute; local employment, tax and infrastructure records are needed for that assessment.
What is known about cooling and water?
Cooling and ventilation use electricity to support data-center operations, and DOE identifies advanced cooling, efficiency, demand flexibility and water reuse as areas of activity. The official sources cited here do not establish a comparable current national water-use figure or project-by-project water impacts. For a local proposal, look for its own water-use disclosures and the relevant public utility or permitting records rather than extrapolating from a national claim.
Quick Recap
How to evaluate claims about a new project
- Check the project stage: determine whether the site is under consideration, proposed, permitted, under construction or operating.
- Identify the measure: distinguish annual electricity consumption from peak power demand, and server-only figures from whole-facility estimates.
- Read the scenario and date: forecasts depend on assumptions and can change; note the forecast year and the date it was issued.
- Follow the local grid question: identify the serving utility and grid region, planned generation or transmission, and who is expected to fund required upgrades.
- Look for local evidence: use project filings, utility materials, public meeting records and permitting documents for claims about community costs, jobs or water use.
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