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World desk6 min

How Prediction Market Contracts Settle—and How to Dispute a Result

Prediction-market contracts settle under their specific rules and named sources. Learn how to check a result, distinguish a delay from a final decision, and use documented dispute routes.
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A prediction-market contract settles according to its specific rules, not the market title or a trader’s sense of what ought to count. Check the contract’s criterion, designated source and timing first; then use the venue’s documented process while any challenge or review window is open. A delay, a disputed proposed result and a finalized result are different situations, with different options.

What determines a contract’s outcome?

The market title is a label, not the full settlement test. The market-specific rules say what must happen, which source controls, and sometimes when the determination is made or how edge cases are handled. Polymarket’s Help Center puts it this way: the title describes the market, while the rules define its resolution. Kalshi likewise directs traders to the contract terms for the outcome criteria, information and verification source.

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Read the complete Rules and any Important Information for the exact contract you hold. Identify the precise condition for each outcome, the named source, the determination window and any special treatment of corrections, ties, missing data or other edge cases. Then compare the contract language with the record from that designated source. Another news report, app or data feed may not control if the contract names a different source.

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These are venue- and contract-specific processes. The Polymarket procedures below describe Polymarket International markets, not Polymarket US or every product bearing the Polymarket name. Kalshi’s terms and procedures may also depend on the particular contract and applicable rulebook.

Is the market delayed, under challenge, or final?

Pending or delayed

An event can appear to be over while the market remains undetermined. The venue may be waiting for an official release, a named source, or a determination time stated in the contract. Kalshi’s Help Center says an open or undetermined market is not, by itself, an indication that the resolution criteria have or have not been met. A pending status therefore does not settle the question either way.

Proposed or challenged

On Polymarket International, a resolution is proposed before it becomes final. A proposal can be challenged within the documented challenge period, sending the question into the UMA dispute process. The opportunity to act is time-limited.

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Finalized

Finality depends on the venue’s process. Polymarket says an outcome finalized through UMA is immutable and cannot be changed or reversed by the platform. The Kalshi Help Center pages described here do not establish a general appeal right for an already-finalized result; consult the applicable contract and current rulebook rather than assuming that a pending-market support route is an appeal.

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How Polymarket International resolves and disputes a market

Polymarket’s Help Center describes resolution through the UMA Optimistic Oracle under the market’s pre-defined rules. A proposer posts a bond. If the outcome is accepted as accurate, the proposer gets the bond back and a reward; an unsuccessful or premature proposal can lose the bond. Once the market resolves, winning shares receive $1 per share, losing shares become worthless, and share trading stops.

Challenge window and possible outcomes

The Help Center’s 2026 description gives a two-hour challenge period after a proposal. Anyone may challenge through the UMA dapp by posting a bond equal to the proposer’s bond, which the Help Center says is usually $750. The market’s Rules section contains the dispute link. These are documented help-page figures, not guarantees for every market or future process.

A challenge starts a 24–48-hour debate period; UMA token holders then vote, a process the Help Center describes as taking approximately 48 hours. Those time estimates are also from its 2026 description. Possible outcomes include the proposer winning, the disputer winning, “Too Early,” or “Unknown/50-50,” which the Help Center says is rarely used. A successful challenger gets their bond back plus half the proposer’s bond as a bounty, while the proposer loses their bond. If the proposer wins, the challenger loses their bond.

What to submit

Use the dispute link while the challenge period is open. Present the exact rule, the relevant record from the controlling source, and the mismatch between them. Polymarket says contributors may add evidence to the debate channels identified by its Help Center. Because the platform says it cannot reverse a finalized UMA outcome, do not treat a later disagreement as equivalent to a timely challenge.

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How Kalshi handles pending markets and market issues

Kalshi says a determination can take from one hour to more than twelve hours after market closure, often depending on when the source agency’s data arrives. Its FAQ separately says most markets settle within a few hours after the outcome is known, often about three hours. These are Help Center guidance ranges from 2026, not service-level guarantees. Trading close time and determination time are not necessarily the same, and a contract may specify a later determination window.

For a market that should be determined

  1. Check the contract first. Open the market’s Rules and Important Information and confirm that no later determination time applies.
  2. Use Request to Settle if appropriate. On the market page, open the options menu, choose “Request to Settle,” select the relevant strike or strikes, and submit the request for market-team review.
  3. Contact support for the documented pending-market case. For a standard single-outcome market still without an update more than about 12 hours after the event, Kalshi’s FAQ says to check the rules and, if they give no later time and the criteria appear met, use in-app chat. Include the market title and source details so support can escalate the issue to the markets team.

Request to Settle and the cited chat guidance address pending-market review; they do not promise reversal of a finalized result. Kalshi also documents a private market bug-reporting route for defects such as contradictory rules, broken variables or internal contract contradictions. That is a way to report a market defect or ambiguity, not a general appeal channel.

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How the documented venue routes compare

Question Polymarket International Kalshi
What controls? The specific market rules and the stated source; the UMA Optimistic Oracle handles resolution. The specific contract terms, information and verification source; the markets team determines outcomes.
What can a trader do before determination is final? Challenge a proposal through the market’s Rules link during the two-hour period described by the 2026 Help Center. Use Request to Settle for a market that should be determined, or the documented in-app chat route for the pending-market situation.
What happens after finalization? Polymarket says finalized UMA outcomes are immutable. The reviewed Help Center guidance does not establish a general formal appeal right; check the current contract and rulebook.

These routes are not interchangeable, and a process documented for one venue or product should not be assumed to apply to another.

A practical checklist before you challenge or contact support

  1. Save the market URL, title, full rules and any visible version or date information.
  2. Write down the exact payout criterion, the named resolution or verification source, the determination window and relevant edge cases.
  3. Open the specified source. Record when the relevant statement or data appeared, the field or passage that matters, and any later correction. A correction may be relevant, but its effect depends on the contract’s wording and designated source.
  4. Confirm whether the market is still pending, has a proposed resolution with an open challenge period, or is finalized. Note any deadline before taking action.
  5. Choose the venue’s matching route: Polymarket’s UMA dispute link for a challengeable proposal; Kalshi’s Request to Settle or documented pending-market chat route for an undetermined market; or Kalshi’s private bug-reporting procedure for a market defect.
  6. Keep the submission concise: quote the relevant rule, link or identify the controlling source record, explain the mismatch, and request the specific review available under the current process.

These steps help make a dispute evidence-led; they do not guarantee that a challenge will succeed or that a venue can reopen a final outcome. Kalshi’s regulatory document index listed Exchange Rulebook version 1.29, dated August 17, 2026, when checked on October 4, 2026. Rulebook provisions, contract terms and help-page procedures can change, so use the version applicable to the contract at issue.

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