North America will need a mix of new generation, grid expansion, storage, efficiency and flexible demand to accommodate data center growth. The scale is substantial, but there is no single reliable North American total: U.S. and Canadian forecasts use different years, measures and scenarios, and many proposed projects may not proceed as planned. The most immediate challenge is regional—getting dependable power and grid capacity to the places where new facilities are built.
How much electricity will data centers need?
The U.S. forecasts point to rapid growth, but their figures are not interchangeable: some describe observed use, some model near-term growth, and others project a future share of national electricity demand. The Canadian outlooks are separate and use their own assumptions.
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U.S. demand: observed growth and forecasts
| Source and forecast vintage | Measure | What it says |
|---|---|---|
| Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (LBNL), 2025 update | Observed and reference-case electricity-use growth | U.S. data center electricity use rose 14% from 2023 to 2024. In the update’s reference case, it grows 22% from 2024 to 2025 and 29% from 2025 to 2026. |
| LBNL, 2025 update, as summarized by the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) | Share of U.S. electricity use in 2030 | Estimated at 11.8%, with a modeled range of 9.5%–15.3%. The energy-use model estimates demand from projected equipment shipments; it does not directly model growth in grid or onsite energy supply. |
| LBNL, 2024 report, as summarized by DOE | 2023 electricity use and share; earlier projection to 2028 | Estimated 176 terawatt-hours (TWh), about 4.4% of U.S. electricity use, in 2023. Its earlier projection put 2028 use at 325–580 TWh, approximately 6.7%–12% of U.S. electricity. This is an earlier forecast vintage, not the 2025 update. |
A TWh measures energy consumed over time, while a grid’s ability to serve a facility also depends on how much power it needs at a given moment and where it connects. A national share therefore cannot show whether a particular utility area has enough generation, transmission or local distribution capacity.
Canada: separate energy and capacity outlooks
| Source and geography | Measure | Projection and qualification |
|---|---|---|
| Environment and Climate Change Canada (ECCC), 2025; Canada | Modeled annual data center electricity demand | 3 TWh in 2025, 11 TWh in 2030 and 16 TWh in 2035. ECCC projects utility generation growth, especially wind and nuclear, while Canada continues to be a net electricity exporter to the United States. |
| Canada Energy Regulator (CER), 2026 Current Measures scenario; Canada | Additional data center load capacity | 1.5 gigawatts (GW) by 2030 and 3.5 GW by 2050. These are scenario assumptions, not committed projects. |
| CER, 2026 Higher scenario; Canada | Additional data center load capacity | 2.7 GW by 2030 and 12 GW by 2050. These are scenario assumptions, not committed projects. |
| CER, 2026 Lower scenario; Canada | Additional data center load capacity | 0.5 GW by 2030 and 1.5 GW by 2050. These are scenario assumptions, not committed projects. |
| Independent Electricity System Operator (IESO), 2025; Ontario commercial data center sub-sector | Net annual energy-demand projection | 3 TWh in 2026 and 16 TWh in 2050. IESO says project numbers, locations, operating dates and demand profiles are uncertain. |
These Canadian figures should not be added together. ECCC estimates national energy demand, the CER scenarios express assumed additional load in GW, and IESO covers Ontario’s commercial data center sub-sector. The CER expects much of Canadian growth in Ontario, Alberta and Quebec, but says actual growth could be higher or lower than its scenarios.
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Why location matters more than a North American total
Data centers can add large, concentrated loads to a particular grid area. Two regions facing similar national growth can have different constraints depending on available generation, transmission, interconnections, local distribution capacity and the timing of projects. A facility’s demand profile also matters: round-the-clock operations place a premium on dependable supply, while flexibility can give grid operators more room to balance peaks.
In its 2026 outlook, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) forecasts average annual electricity-load growth from 2025 to 2027 of 10% in ERCOT and 3% in PJM. Those are forecasts for the ERCOT and PJM grid regions, not growth rates for data center facilities alone. EIA also identifies additional growth in central and southwestern parts of the United States.
The difference between a national energy forecast and a regional grid outlook is important: rising demand does not automatically mean the same strain everywhere, and a large national supply addition cannot relieve a local bottleneck unless power can reach the affected area. Project locations and operating schedules are also uncertain, as IESO notes for Ontario and the CER notes for its Canadian scenarios.
What could higher demand mean for prices?
EIA’s 2026 high-demand exercise estimates that, in 2027, wholesale electricity prices would be $37 per megawatt-hour (MWh) higher in ERCOT and $2.60/MWh higher in PJM than in EIA’s February 2026 Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO) forecast. These are modeled regional wholesale-price changes in a high-demand scenario, not predictions of retail electricity bills.
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The exercise assumes demand grows faster while generating capacity remains at the level used in EIA’s February 2026 baseline assumptions. Under that condition, increased natural-gas generation is the primary source of incremental power, with other existing resources responding differently by region. The larger modeled price effect in ERCOT reflects that scenario and regional conditions; it is not a certainty, nor does it account for every possible new plant or grid upgrade.
Data centers are a major driver, but not the only one
The International Energy Agency (IEA), in its 2026 outlook, expects U.S. electricity use to increase by more than 420 TWh over the five years to 2030. It projects data centers to account for about half of that growth. Buildings, manufacturing and transportation are among the other contributors, so the increase should not be attributed to data centers alone.
For grid planners, this means data centers are part of a broader demand challenge. Power systems must serve new loads across sectors, sometimes in the same regions and time periods, while accounting for how quickly generation and network infrastructure can be added.
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There is no single supply fix. DOE describes a portfolio spanning new generation, use of existing infrastructure, grid expansion, storage and ways to reduce or shift demand. Which combination works depends on local resources, project schedules and the reliability requirements of each grid.
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| Option | Role in meeting demand | Consideration |
|---|---|---|
| Solar and land-based wind | DOE identifies both as options that can scale relatively quickly and add electricity supply. | Variable generation needs to be planned alongside transmission, storage and other resources that can help balance supply. |
| Batteries and other storage | Can help shift electricity across time and support grid flexibility. | Storage is one part of a portfolio; its contribution depends on system needs and how it is operated. |
| Existing nuclear and hydropower infrastructure | DOE points to using existing facilities as part of the response to new demand. | These resources are regionally situated; their availability cannot be assumed in every grid area. |
| Next-generation geothermal and nuclear | DOE identifies these technologies as important potential sources of clean firm power. | They are part of the longer-term clean-firm portfolio, not a basis for assuming immediate supply everywhere. |
| Transmission and reuse of retired power-station sites | Transmission expansion can move power to growing areas; retired plant sites may offer locations to redevelop energy infrastructure. | New supply alone does not resolve a delivery constraint unless the grid can connect and carry it. |
| Efficiency and flexible demand | Efficiency can reduce the electricity needed for a given level of computing service; flexibility can shift some demand to times when the grid has more room. | Continuous data center operations make the amount and timing of flexibility important to establish rather than assume. |
Planning, interconnection decisions and rate structures also shape whether the new load can be served reliably and how grid costs are managed. The central issue is not simply how much generation is built, but whether enough power and delivery capacity are available in the right places and at the right times.
What the forecasts do—and do not—say
The estimates describe possible demand under particular models and assumptions, not a guaranteed buildout. LBNL’s 2025 estimate of the U.S. data center share in 2030 models energy use but does not directly model growth in grid or onsite supply. CER’s long-range Canadian numbers are scenario inputs, and IESO explicitly identifies uncertainty about the projects behind its Ontario outlook. EIA’s wholesale-price results are conditional on a high-demand case and its stated capacity assumptions.
DOE’s December 20, 2024 announcement quoted then-U.S. Energy Secretary Jennifer M. Granholm: “We can meet this growth with clean energy.” That was advocacy framing at the time, not a guarantee that all projected load will be served by clean power. The outlooks cited here do not establish a directly comparable combined North American data center load, project-by-project economics, continent-wide retail-bill effects or a single data-center-specific emissions figure.
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