As of reports published on 2 October 2026, fighting in northern Ethiopia is reported across Tigray, Amhara and Afar—not along one continuous front. Separate clashes and claims of territorial gains involve different places and actors, and the picture changed within days. The map below is therefore a dated snapshot of reported events, not a definitive account of who controls each location.
Where is the fighting happening?
Al Jazeera’s 2 October 2026 visual explainer describes several fronts across Tigray, Amhara and Afar. Its account, alongside ACLED updates through 1 October, shows why a single arrow of advance would be misleading: fighting and control claims were reported in different areas, and later updates sometimes described reversals.
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| Front | Places and reported events | How to read the report |
|---|---|---|
| Southern Tigray | Government-aligned forces said they captured Alamata on 28 September. The town is about 120 km (75 miles) south of Mekelle and is described by Al Jazeera as a supply hub near the Tigray–Amhara border. ACLED was cited for reports of 15–17 drone strikes there on 22 September, including strikes affecting a school and a hospital. | The capture is an attributed claim, not a durable control finding. ACLED’s 29 September summary also described federal forces taking Alamata. |
| Western Tigray | A separate front opened near the Tekeze River, in territory disputed between Tigray and Amhara. | Do not treat this as simply the western end of the Alamata front; it concerns a distinct, disputed area. |
| Northern Amhara | Fighting was reported around Kobo and Gidan in North Wello and Sekota in Wag Hemra. Government forces reportedly retook Sekota on 27 September. | “Retook” describes a dated report, not a claim that the place remained under the same control afterward. |
| Tigray–Afar border and Afar | Tigrayan forces and Ugugumo were reported advancing around the border, Erebti and Abala. Al Jazeera said the advance could threaten the Semera–Djibouti corridor, Ethiopia’s main import route, including for fuel. | ACLED’s 1 October country update reported government forces and Tigray Peace Forces regaining Abala, Erebti and Megale. Its 29 September summary had described TPLF/Ugugumo forces holding Erebti and advancing on Afdeera. |
| Eastern Tigray | ACLED reported ENDF regaining Raya Bala on 30 September. | This is a separate, dated control report; it does not settle the status of other fronts. |
These reports do not all use the same meaning of “control.” A place may be the subject of a claimed capture, a reported clash, or a later report that another force regained it. A useful map should mark those categories separately and state its “as of” date. The place names and events above are attributed to Al Jazeera’s 2 October explainer and ACLED’s updates dated 29 September, 30 September and 1 October 2026.
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The northern conflict began in November 2020, when the TPLF and federal forces went to war. During 2021, Tigrayan forces regained control of Tigray and advanced into Amhara and Afar. ACLED describes the advance reaching as far south as Debre Sina in December 2021 before federal forces and allied regional forces pushed it back.
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The spread brought major displacement and civilian harm in Amhara and Afar. These are historical figures from 2021, reported or summarized in 2021–2022; they are not estimates of current displacement or deaths.
| Measure | Figure and period | Source and qualification |
|---|---|---|
| Fatalities in Amhara and Afar | At least 3,200 across the last six months of 2021 | ACLED’s 2022 account of recorded fatalities; it said the actual toll was likely much higher. This is not a definitive count. |
| Internally displaced people | 250,000 in Amhara and 112,000 in Afar; about 2.1 million in Tigray | UNHCR’s 6 September 2021 situation update, relaying local-authority and OCHA figures. This is a dated snapshot. |
| Displacement across Ethiopia | At least 4.2 million in August–September 2021, compared with 1.8 million in the same period in 2020 | ACAPS’s 2022 analysis, citing displacement data. The figure covers a different measure and scope from the regional snapshot above. |
The November 2022 Pretoria cessation-of-hostilities agreement ended major fighting, but disputes over territory, security and accountability remained. Al Jazeera’s October 2026 coverage links the renewed fighting to these unresolved issues and wider political tensions; the agreement should not be read as having settled them.
What happened in the 2026 escalation?
- 1 August 2026: Al Jazeera reports clashes between Tigrayan and federal forces near the Sudanese border, followed by drone strikes and troop deployments.
- 20 September: The Alliance for Survival was announced, with a stated aim of removing Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed’s government and establishing a transitional government.
- 23 September: Fighting sharply escalated. Tigrayan forces reportedly seized airports in Mekelle, Axum and Shire and pushed into Afar and Amhara. The government called the action an “all-out offensive”; the TPLF described its actions as a “defensive war.” Those are the parties’ characterizations, not neutral labels.
- 27–30 September: Reports included government forces retaking Sekota on 27 September, federal forces taking Alamata in ACLED’s 29 September summary, and ENDF regaining Raya Bala on 30 September.
- 1 October: ACLED reported government forces and Tigray Peace Forces regaining Abala, Erebti and Megale in Afar.
The sequence captures reported events, not a settled front line. For example, ACLED’s 29 September update described TPLF/Ugugumo forces holding Erebti, while its 1 October update reported forces regaining it. Readers should check the date and attribution attached to each map marker or chart entry rather than infer continuous control between reports.
Who is fighting, and what does the alliance mean?
The Alliance for Survival announcement on 20 September named seven armed and political groups: the TPLF, Amhara Fano National Movement, Oromo Liberation Army (OLA), Ogaden National Liberation Front (ONLF), Ugugumo (Afar Revolutionary Democratic Unity Front), Benishangul Peoples’ Liberation Movement and Gumuz Peoples’ Democratic Movement. The Sidama National Liberation Front said it would join on 25 September.
Announcement and membership do not establish a unified command or coordinated battlefield activity. Al Jazeera reported that the Gumuz group denied joining and said it had no armed wing; ONLF factions differed; and the OLA said its priority was removing the government rather than coordinated operations. ACLED said that, as of 26 September, only the TPLF, Fano and Ugugumo were actively fighting federal forces. The Associated Press also cautioned that it was unclear whether groups divided by territorial disputes and grievances could carry out joint operations. An International Crisis Group deputy project director, Magnus Taylor, characterized the alliance as “opportunistic”; that is his assessment as quoted by AP, not proof of a common operational plan.
How should a map or chart show these events?
A clear visual should distinguish geography, event type and evidence status rather than coloring whole regions as if each had one uncontested controller.
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- Map the separate fronts: show regional boundaries and locate Alamata in southern Tigray; the Tekeze River area in western Tigray; Kobo, Gidan and Sekota in northern Amhara; and Erebti and Abala around the Tigray–Afar border.
- Use an explicit dated legend: distinguish reported clashes, attributed claims of capture, and reported regaining of control. Identify the source and report date for each marker.
- Show routes as context, not as captured territory: label the Semera–Djibouti corridor as a strategically important import route, and present any threat to it as Al Jazeera’s reported assessment.
- Keep the timeline legible: align the November 2020 outbreak, the 2021 expansion and counteroffensive, the 2 November 2022 Pretoria agreement, and the August–September 2026 escalation.
- Do not merge unlike statistics: retain each figure’s region, period, publisher and caveat. The 2021 displacement snapshots and ACLED fatality estimate measure different things and should not be combined into one total.
Why are Oromia and Benishangul Gumuz not simply more northern fronts?
Violence in Oromia and Benishangul Gumuz has included distinct dynamics and should not automatically be presented as part of the Tigray conflict or the 2026 northern campaign. ACAPS documented fighting between the OLA and federal forces in southern and western Oromia, as well as separate conflict expansion in Benishangul Gumuz. ACLED’s December 2022 update described violence expanding into new areas in northwest Oromia while conflict continued in the south and west.
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