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Rising memory-chip costs can make PCs and smartphones more expensive, but they do not translate automatically into a matching increase at checkout. Device makers can pass costs on, absorb some of them, or change which memory and storage configurations they sell. As of TrendForce’s September 30, 2026 outlook, memory contract prices were still forecast to rise in the fourth quarter, although the projected increase in conventional DRAM was more moderate than earlier forecasts. What buyers actually pay depends on the model, configuration, market, and retailer.
How higher memory costs reach device buyers
Memory is an important component of both computers and phones, but “memory” can refer to different parts. DRAM is working memory: it holds data that a device needs while running apps and processes. NAND Flash is persistent storage, used in products such as SSDs and in phone storage. Higher prices for either can raise a manufacturer’s costs, but a component quote is not a retail price tag.
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When costs rise, a device maker has several options. It can increase the price of a finished product, accept a smaller margin, favor models with more room to absorb cost changes, or offer a different configuration. A lower-capacity model might remain at a similar price while a higher-capacity version costs more; alternatively, a device may simply become more expensive. Which response a company chooses can differ by model and market.
That distinction matters when interpreting forecasts. A component contract-price change describes memory sold between industry suppliers and buyers. A forecast for average PC or smartphone prices concerns finished devices. Neither figure tells you the current shelf price of a specific model at a particular retailer.
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What the 2026 forecasts say—and what they measure
The figures below are forecasts published during 2026, not a record of every device’s actual price change. Gartner’s consumer-device estimates compare 2026 with 2025. TrendForce’s figures describe forecast component contract prices, with quarter-over-quarter comparisons. The measures are not interchangeable.
| Publisher and date | Measure | Forecast |
|---|---|---|
| Gartner, February 26, 2026 | Combined DRAM and SSD prices, 2026 versus 2025 | Estimated to surge 130% by the end of 2026 |
| Gartner, February 26, 2026 | Average PC prices, 2026 versus 2025 | Forecast to increase 17% |
| Gartner, February 26, 2026 | Average smartphone prices, 2026 versus 2025 | Forecast to increase 13% |
| Gartner, February 26, 2026 | Worldwide PC shipments, 2026 versus 2025 | Forecast to decline 10.4% |
| Gartner, February 26, 2026 | Worldwide smartphone shipments, 2026 versus 2025 | Forecast to decline 8.4% |
| TrendForce, February 2, 2026 | Conventional DRAM contract prices, 1Q26 versus 4Q25 | Forecast up 90–95% quarter over quarter |
| TrendForce, February 2, 2026 | NAND Flash contract prices, 1Q26 versus 4Q25 | Forecast up 55–60% quarter over quarter |
| TrendForce, February 2, 2026 | PC DRAM contract prices, 1Q26 versus 4Q25 | Forecast to rise by more than 100% quarter over quarter |
| TrendForce, March 31, 2026 | Conventional DRAM contract prices, 2Q26 versus 1Q26 | Forecast up 58–63% quarter over quarter |
| TrendForce, March 31, 2026 | NAND Flash contract prices, 2Q26 versus 1Q26 | Forecast up 70–75% quarter over quarter |
| TrendForce, September 30, 2026 | Conventional DRAM contract prices, 4Q26 versus 3Q26 | Forecast up 10–15% quarter over quarter |
| TrendForce, September 30, 2026 | NAND Flash contract prices, 4Q26 versus 3Q26 | Forecast up 15–20% quarter over quarter |
TrendForce’s outlooks changed over the year. The earlier projections for the first two quarters were much steeper for conventional DRAM than the fourth-quarter projection published in September. That later forecast still indicated increases; it did not say component prices had stopped rising. Forecasts are dated expectations, not guaranteed outcomes, and each applies to the named market segment and period.
Why memory has become more expensive
TrendForce has linked the pressure to strong demand from AI and data centers, along with suppliers directing capacity toward high-performance server products. Its February 2026 outlook described persistent AI and data-center demand as worsening the supply-demand imbalance and increasing suppliers’ pricing power. In its September 2026 outlook, TrendForce said suppliers continued to prioritize advanced-process capacity for high-performance server products, leaving the wider market undersupplied.
There is no single price for “memory.” Conventional DRAM, mobile DRAM, NAND Flash, client SSDs, and enterprise SSDs serve different products and markets, and their prices need not move in lockstep. Capacity allocation also matters: tight supply in one category does not establish an identical change in every other category or device.
What the pressure may mean for PC prices and configurations
PCs use DRAM as working memory and commonly use NAND-based SSDs for storage. Those components contribute to the bill of materials—the cost of the parts used to build a device—so more expensive memory can squeeze margins or influence a laptop or desktop’s price and specification. Gartner forecast that PC memory costs could reach 23% of total bill of materials in 2026, compared with 16% in 2025. These are Gartner’s estimates, not a measured cost breakdown for every PC.
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Configuration changes can be as important as a price increase. TrendForce’s September 2026 analysis reported that PC brands were reducing SSD capacities in mainstream configurations to lower bill-of-materials costs. It also said notebook inventories increasingly reflected higher component costs and were weighing on end-market sales. This suggests a buyer could encounter less storage in a similarly priced mainstream model or pay more for a higher-capacity option. It does not establish a universal retail pattern or guarantee what any particular manufacturer will do.
Installed RAM and SSD capacity are visible comparison points, but they are not the whole specification. Before comparing two PCs, check their exact model numbers, processor and display, included RAM and storage, warranty, and the price of the configuration you would actually buy. A listing for the same product family may describe a different memory or storage combination.
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Outbyte PC Repair FREERepair Windows errors before they cause bigger problemsFix Now →Outbyte Driver Updater FREEScan for outdated or missing drivers - takes under a minuteDriver Scan →Do not assume a desktop memory upgrade is possible just because the PC uses DRAM. Some systems have replaceable modules; others use soldered memory or impose specific limits. Before purchasing a memory kit, check the computer or motherboard documentation for supported memory generation, form factor, capacity, and compatibility. For a laptop, verify whether its memory is replaceable at all. A cheaper base configuration is only a useful alternative if its installed capacity is adequate or a supported upgrade is practical.
Gartner also forecast that the sub-$500 entry-level PC segment would disappear by 2028. That is a prediction from Gartner, not an established outcome or a guarantee that no PC below that price will be sold. It signals concern about entry-level economics, but local prices, discounts, product choices, and future component costs may differ.
What the pressure may mean for smartphone prices
Phones use mobile DRAM and internal storage, often based on eMMC or UFS technology. Unlike a desktop with replaceable DIMMs, phone memory and storage should be treated as fixed unless the manufacturer’s documentation for the exact model says otherwise. A phone with a larger storage option may therefore require buying that configuration up front rather than upgrading it later.
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TrendForce’s September 2026 outlook said mobile DRAM allocations remained tight. It also described mobile DRAM cost increases and the depletion of low-cost inventories as continuing pressures on smartphone production, with upward price pressure expected to continue into the fourth quarter even as growth moderated after earlier increases. This describes production-side conditions; it does not prove that every phone’s retail price has risen by the same amount.
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Gartner’s forecast points to particular exposure among entry-level phones. The company said some consumers might respond by buying refurbished or second-hand devices or by keeping their current phones for longer. A refurbished handset can reduce the upfront price, but compare the exact model and storage capacity, the seller’s return policy, warranty, battery condition, and software-support position before deciding. Those checks determine whether a lower price is a worthwhile substitute for a new phone.
Independent reader supportYour contribution helps us test, update, and keep practical guides available for everyone.Should you buy a PC or phone now, or wait?
A market forecast cannot identify the best purchase date for an individual buyer. It does not tell you whether a specific model is discounted today, how a local retailer will price it next month, or whether a future configuration will offer better value. Make the decision around the device and configuration you need, then treat market forecasts as context rather than a checkout quote.
- Compare the exact configuration. Record the model number, installed RAM, storage capacity, and total price, including any discount. Do not compare a base model with a higher-capacity version as if they were identical.
- Check whether you can upgrade later. For a PC, consult model-specific manufacturer or motherboard documentation before counting on a RAM or SSD upgrade. For a phone, assume internal memory and storage are fixed unless its documentation explicitly says otherwise.
- Set a capacity floor. Decide what amount of RAM and storage is adequate for your own apps, files, and expected use. A lower-capacity device may be a poor saving if you will quickly need to replace it or pay for a larger configuration.
- Compare alternatives on equal terms. Include a previous-generation model or refurbished device only after checking its capacity, condition, warranty, support, and total price. Compare those details with the new model rather than relying on the headline price alone.
- Recheck the price when you are ready to buy. Compare current offers in your market for the same model and configuration. A forecast about average prices cannot establish whether a particular offer is good value.
If your current device works and a replacement is not urgent, waiting is one possible response to uncertainty; Gartner also identified longer ownership as a potential consumer response to higher device prices. If you need a device now, choose based on available models and current local offers rather than assuming that prices must rise by a forecast amount. There is not enough in the cited global forecasts to predict a specific country’s retail prices or a retailer’s next promotion.
How to read the market claims without confusing them
- Component contract prices concern memory suppliers and device-industry buyers, not the price a consumer pays for a finished device.
- Device-price forecasts are estimates for an average or market-level result over a stated period. They do not mean every brand or model will move by the same amount.
- Actual checkout prices depend on the exact configuration, geography, retailer, stock, and discounts. The cited global forecasts do not establish current prices for a particular country or product.
- Capacity changes can alter value even when the headline price looks stable. Check RAM and storage, not just the model name.
Gartner analyst Ranjit Atwal characterized the expected market response in the company’s February 26, 2026 release: “This is the steepest contraction in device shipments witnessed in over a decade. Higher prices will narrow the range of devices available, prompting buyers to hold on to devices for longer, fundamentally altering upgrade cycles.” Gartner’s statement is part of its forecast analysis, not a guarantee of how each buyer or manufacturer will act.
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