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What Rehn warned about
At a conference of the European Systemic Risk Board, Rehn said: “Higher energy prices bring us closer to the ECB’s adverse scenario in terms of inflation,” according to a Reuters-credited report published by Investing.com on 2 October 2026. The same report said inflation had topped 3% in recent months and could approach 4% by year-end. That near-4% figure is the report’s near-term estimate, not the ECB’s September baseline annual average.
Rehn also said that “Projections for growth and inflation continue to be subject to very high, pervasive uncertainty.” Higher long-term borrowing costs could restrain the extent to which energy costs feed into other prices and wages, while weighing on growth.
Three different inflation figures—and what they mean
The monthly reading, the ECB baseline and the scenario results describe different things. They should not be treated as interchangeable forecasts.
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| Measure | Inflation figure | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| August 2026 annual HICP | 3.3%, up from 2.9% in July | Observed annual inflation; the ECB said the rise was driven by energy inflation linked to the Middle East conflict. ECB Economic Bulletin, Issue 6 (2026). |
| September 2026 baseline | 3.0% in 2026, 2.5% in 2027, 2.1% in 2028 | ECB staff projections for annual-average HICP inflation. ECB staff projections, September 2026. |
| September 2026 adverse scenario | 3.1% in 2026, 3.2% in 2027 | Conditional scenario output, compared with baseline figures of 3.0% and 2.5% for those years. ECB staff projections, September 2026. |
| September 2026 severe scenario | 3.3% in 2026, 5.4% in 2027 | Conditional scenario output, not a forecast assigned a probability. ECB staff projections, September 2026. |
HICP is the Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices, the measure used in the ECB’s inflation projections. The August reading is an observed annual rate; the projection figures are annual averages. The reported possibility of inflation approaching 4% by year-end refers to a near-term estimate, not an annual average.
What the ECB’s adverse scenario assumes
The September 2026 scenario analysis is an illustrative alternative to the baseline, not a replacement for it. The ECB describes its paths as market-based and does not assign them probabilities. Its technical assumptions were set using information available through 19 August 2026.
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| ECB September 2026 path | Energy assumption | HICP, 2026 / 2027 | Core inflation, 2027 | Real GDP growth, 2026 / 2027 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Baseline | Baseline assumptions; specific values not stated here (ECB staff projections, September 2026) | 3.0% / 2.5% | Not stated here (ECB staff projections, September 2026) | Not stated here (ECB staff projections, September 2026) |
| Adverse | Oil at USD 99 per barrel and gas at EUR 77 per MWh in Q4 2026 | 3.1% / 3.2% | 2.8% | 0.9% / 1.1% |
| Severe | More severe energy-price shock; specific values not stated here (ECB staff projections, September 2026) | 3.3% / 5.4% | 3.5% | 0.8% / 0.4% |
Scenario figures are from the ECB staff projections for September 2026. The adverse-scenario energy prices are assumptions for Q4 2026, not observed prices or predictions that those prices will occur. The ECB’s 30 September speech said oil and gas prices had moved closer to the adverse scenario since the technical cut-off, so Rehn’s later remarks came after that change in market conditions.
How higher energy prices can spread through the economy
- Direct energy inflation: Higher oil and gas prices raise energy costs for households and businesses. The ECB linked the August rise in inflation to energy.
- Costs beyond energy: Businesses facing higher energy inputs may pass some of those costs on through prices for other goods and services.
- Later effects on core prices and wages: If the shock persists, indirect and second-round effects can become more visible in core inflation and wages. In the ECB’s adverse scenario, core inflation reaches 2.8% in 2027; in the severe scenario, it reaches 3.5%.
- Pressure on demand and growth: More expensive energy reduces households’ real purchasing power and can weigh on trade and domestic demand. Tighter financing conditions can further curb spending and growth, while also limiting businesses’ ability to pass on costs.
The ECB’s scenario analysis describes an initial impact led mainly by higher energy costs and uncertainty, with effects increasingly spreading through trade, domestic demand and core inflation over time.
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Why the adverse scenario is a risk, not a certainty
The adverse and severe paths are conditional illustrations of what could happen under different assumptions; the ECB does not assign probabilities to them. The eventual outcome depends on energy prices, developments in the conflict, financial conditions and how much cost pressure reaches wages and non-energy prices.
The September baseline therefore remains important: it projected inflation easing from an annual average of 3.0% in 2026 to 2.1% in 2028. Rehn’s warning was that the risks had shifted closer to a less favourable path, not that the ECB had adopted that path as its central projection.
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Could higher borrowing costs limit energy-driven inflation?
They could restrain demand and limit how much of the energy shock businesses pass through to other prices and wages. But that restraint comes with a trade-off: tighter financing conditions also weigh on economic activity. It does not undo the direct increase in household and business energy bills, and it does not make the growth cost disappear.
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