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World desk4 min

Can Ozone from Amazon Wildfires Weaken Surviving Trees’ Carbon Uptake?

Wildfire emissions can contribute to ozone that impairs tree photosynthesis downwind. Here is what the tropical-forest model and Amazon carbon studies do—and do not—show.

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Yes, wildfire smoke can contribute to ground-level ozone that harms trees’ photosynthesis downwind. But the often-cited estimate of ozone-related carbon loss in tropical forests is a model of anthropogenic ozone broadly—not a measurement of carbon uptake lost specifically to Amazon wildfires. The evidence supports a real pathway from fire emissions to ozone exposure and plant damage, while leaving the size of any wildfire-only effect on Amazon trees unquantified.

How wildfire emissions can become ozone

Wildfires release nitrogen oxides (NOx) and volatile organic compounds (VOCs). In the atmosphere, these gases can react to form ground-level ozone downwind of the fire. Ozone is therefore not simply a component of smoke: it can form from smoke’s precursor gases as the plume travels.

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The Science Panel for the Amazon’s Amazon Assessment Report 2021 describes wet-season background ozone below 20 parts per billion by volume (ppbv), and observations of 40–80 ppbv downwind of biomass-burning plumes in the dry season. Those are reported concentrations in particular seasons and plume conditions, not a year-round reading for the Amazon.

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How ozone can affect surviving trees

Ground-level ozone can enter leaves through stomata—the pores that regulate gas exchange. Once inside, it can impair photosynthesis, reducing the carbon a plant takes in and uses to grow. Ozone exposure does not affect all species equally: controlled work on tropical trees found substantial variation in susceptibility.

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A 2018 global modeling study by Yue and Unger describes the same stomatal pathway. It also points to a countervailing effect: fire aerosols can scatter sunlight and increase diffuse radiation, which may help photosynthesis in some conditions. In the study’s global simulations for 2002–2011, ozone dampened productivity in unburned forests and masked the diffuse-light benefit, resulting in a net indirect terrestrial carbon loss. The balance depends on location and conditions; it does not mean every plume causes the same net effect on every forest. Read the study in Nature Communications.

What the tropical-forest carbon estimate actually says

Cheesman and colleagues’ 2024 study combined open-top-chamber experiments on ten tropical-forest tree species with the JULES dynamic global vegetation model. The experiments measured how plant biomass related to estimated ozone entering leaves. The model then used the observed range of tree susceptibility to estimate the effects of spatially explicit post-industrial atmospheric ozone change from 1900 to 2014. The resulting productivity figures concern tropical forests as a whole, not the Amazon alone, and the ozone forcing was anthropogenic ozone generally rather than ozone attributed only to fires.

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Study result What it represents How to interpret it
For 2005–2014, modeled tropical-forest net primary productivity (NPP) was reduced by an average of 5.1% under moderate ozone susceptibility; the range was 3.4–9.6% under the study’s low-to-high susceptibility assumptions. A vegetation-model estimate based on tropical-tree experiments and historical anthropogenic ozone forcing. It is not a field measurement of Amazon trees or an estimate of the share caused by wildfire smoke. Cheesman et al., Nature Geoscience (2024).
The authors calculated a cumulative carbon-drawdown loss of 0.29 petagrams of carbon (PgC) per year since 2000, equivalent to about 17% of the contemporary annual tropical land carbon sink in the twenty-first century. The study’s modeled carbon-drawdown estimate for tropical forests under its ozone analysis. This is a tropical-wide modeled comparison, not a current annual Amazon wildfire impact. Cheesman et al., Nature Geoscience (2024).

The authors note that the influence of elevated ozone on tropical forests had remained unclear. Their work adds experimental evidence about tropical tree sensitivity and a model-based estimate of the broader effect; it does not isolate the contribution of Amazon fires.

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What Amazon carbon-budget measurements add—and do not add

A separate analysis by Basso and colleagues used an atmospheric CO2 inversion incorporating Amazon vertical-profile observations and global flask measurements to estimate the region’s carbon balance for 2010–2018. It found a mean net carbon source of 0.13 ± 0.17 Pg C per year. Estimated fire emissions were 0.26 ± 0.13 Pg C per year, while forest uptake was −0.13 ± 0.20 Pg C per year—offsetting around half of those fire emissions. The authors found no significant trend over 2010–2018 in total, fire, or net biome exchange estimates, and said the analysis could not provide clear evidence of weakening Amazonian forest carbon uptake. Read the study record at NOAA.

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This inversion is a regional carbon-budget analysis, not a test of ozone’s physiological effect on individual trees. It helps prevent a different overstatement: the ozone study does not establish that the Amazon’s overall carbon sink is currently weakening because of wildfire-generated ozone.

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What can be concluded

  • Amazon biomass burning can release ozone precursors, and elevated ozone has been observed downwind of dry-season plumes.
  • Ozone can enter leaves and reduce photosynthesis, with effects that vary among tree species.
  • Tropical-forest modeling estimates an ozone-related productivity and carbon-drawdown cost, but does not assign that cost specifically to Amazon wildfires.
  • Fire aerosols can also affect light in ways that may partly offset ozone’s productivity impact; the net outcome varies with conditions.

The evidence therefore supports the narrower claim that wildfire pollution can expose surviving Amazon trees to ozone that may impair productivity. It does not establish how much carbon uptake Amazon trees have lost to fire-derived ozone, or what the local effect is today. The 2024 ozone model uses historical forcing through 2014, and the separate Amazon carbon inversion covers 2010–2018; neither is a current 2026 air-quality or tree-uptake measurement.

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