ASML raised its 2026 sales forecast to €43 billion–€45 billion in July, strengthening the near-term case for demand for chipmaking equipment. But the higher outlook is not evidence that trade risks have gone away: the company still identifies export controls, licensing, and geopolitical and trade conditions as uncertainties for its business.
What ASML’s latest guidance says
In its July 15, 2026, second-quarter results, ASML forecast full-year 2026 net sales of €43 billion–€45 billion and a gross margin of 54%–56%. These are management forecasts, not completed-year results. ASML also forecast third-quarter sales of €11.0 billion–€12.0 billion and a gross margin of 55%–57%. ASML’s Q2 2026 results release sets out both outlooks.
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The forecast has risen with each quarterly update. ASML began the year with a €34 billion–€39 billion full-year sales outlook on January 28, raised it to €36 billion–€40 billion with its April 15 Q1 results, then lifted it to €43 billion–€45 billion in July. The ranges refer to the same full-year net-sales measure, making the progression a clearer sign of changed expectations than a comparison of unlike metrics.
| Update | 2026 net-sales outlook |
|---|---|
| January 28, 2026, initial outlook | €34 billion–€39 billion |
| April 15, 2026, Q1 update | €36 billion–€40 billion |
| July 15, 2026, Q2 update | €43 billion–€45 billion |
The January range appears in ASML’s Q4 and full-year 2025 results; the April revision is in its Q1 2026 results. At the end of 2025, ASML had reported €32.7 billion in full-year net sales, €9.6 billion in net income, and a €38.8 billion backlog. Those historical figures provide context, but backlog is not the same as guaranteed future revenue.
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What was reported—and what remains a forecast
ASML reported Q2 2026 net sales of €9.326 billion, a 54.0% gross margin, and net income of €2.918 billion. The company said sales and gross margin exceeded its guidance, primarily because Installed Base Management sales were higher than expected. These are actual Q2 results; the €11.0 billion–€12.0 billion Q3 range and €43 billion–€45 billion annual range are forward-looking estimates.
That distinction matters when judging the strength of the outlook. One quarter’s above-guidance performance supports the picture of a strong business, but it does not establish that each future quarter will match expectations or that all current demand will convert to shipments and revenue on schedule.
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Why ASML says demand is improving
ASML links its raised forecast to AI-related investment, demand for advanced logic and memory chips, customers accelerating capacity plans, and strong order intake in the first half of 2026. These are the company’s explanations for its outlook, not independently verified measures of the entire semiconductor market.
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1Scan for outdated or missing drivers - takes under a minute2Repair Windows errors before they cause bigger problems3Fix the driver behind crashes, sound loss and screen glitchesCEO Christophe Fouquet said in the July 15 Q2 release: “Ongoing AI-related investments and continued progress in AI technologies are driving demand for advanced Logic and Memory chips, further strengthening the semiconductor industry’s growth outlook.” His statement describes management’s view that AI investment is supporting equipment demand; it should not be read as a guarantee of continued growth.
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Capacity plans show both opportunity and execution demands
ASML said it planned to increase 2027 capacity for low-numerical-aperture (low-NA) EUV tools by 30% compared with a 2026 level of around 65, and 2027 DUV immersion capacity by 30% compared with around 130 in 2026. The company was also investigating a further 30% increase in each category for 2028.
- The 2027 increases are plans, not confirmation that the additional tools have already been produced or shipped.
- The 2028 increases are under investigation, not firm delivery commitments.
- Higher planned capacity can help ASML respond if customer demand materializes, while also making execution, supply availability, and order timing important to the result.
The July release does not quantify how much of the forecast depends on any single customer, region, or tool category. A higher capacity plan is therefore evidence of preparation for demand, not proof of the revenue or timing that will ultimately follow.
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Why export controls still matter
ASML continues to identify shipment restrictions, changes to export controls, licensing, trade conditions, and geopolitical developments among uncertainties that could affect its business. Its April Q1 release said the 2026 guidance range accommodated possible outcomes of ongoing export-control discussions. By July, ASML had raised that range while continuing to discuss trade-related risks.
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Repair common Windows errors and clear accumulated junk for a smoother, more stable PC - no reinstall needed.Free scan · no reinstallThose facts support a balanced reading: management sees enough demand and business momentum to raise its forecast, but the company has not said trade uncertainty is resolved. The available disclosures do not establish current country-by-country rules, the outcome of individual license applications, or a quantified sales impact from any particular restriction. It would be inaccurate to infer those specifics from ASML’s general risk language.
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What to watch in the next update
At the July release, the next scheduled results were Q3 2026, set for October 14, 2026, shortly after 07:00 CET, according to ASML’s quarterly results calendar. The calendar date is not itself a report of Q3 performance. To assess whether the raised annual outlook is holding, readers should compare the company’s reported sales and margins with its Q3 forecast, and note any changes to its full-year guidance, demand commentary, capacity plans, or stated trade risks.
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