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World desk5 min

Are Prediction Market Winnings Taxable? U.S. Reporting and Recordkeeping Basics

IRS gambling rules are general, not a specific ruling on prediction-market contracts. Learn why missing forms do not automatically end reporting duties and what records to save.
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Possibly—and you should not assume that winnings are tax-free just because you did not receive a tax form. The IRS says gambling winnings are taxable and reportable, but the IRS materials available for this article do not specifically classify prediction-market event contracts or establish one reporting method for every trade. Keep detailed records, report income as required under the treatment that applies to your activity, and consult a qualified tax professional if you are unsure how your contracts should be classified.

Are prediction market winnings taxable?

The short answer depends on how the activity is classified for federal tax purposes. The Internal Revenue Service (IRS) says, “Gambling winnings are fully taxable and you must report the income on your tax return.” That is a general rule for gambling winnings—not a ruling that every prediction-market event contract is gambling.

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The IRS guidance addressed here does not specifically determine whether event-contract profits or losses should be treated as gambling income, capital gains or losses, or under another set of rules. It also does not establish that all prediction-market contracts receive the same treatment. Do not treat any one of those classifications as settled for every prediction-market trade based on the general guidance alone.

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This article covers U.S. federal individual income tax and casual users. It does not resolve state tax rules, non-U.S. tax treatment, or the correct treatment of a particular person’s activity.

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Do I have to report winnings if I didn’t get a 1099?

Not receiving an information form does not, by itself, remove the duty to report taxable income. The IRS says gambling winnings must be reported even when they are not shown on Form W-2G, and its general taxable-income guidance says income may need to be reported even if no information form arrives.

For casual gamblers, IRS Topic 419 directs reporting gambling winnings on Form 1040 or Form 1040-SR using Schedule 1. Whether that gambling-specific instruction is the right treatment for a particular prediction-market position depends on its classification; the IRS material cited here does not settle that question.

The IRS Publication 17 for tax year 2025 identifies Schedule 1, line 8b for gambling winnings. That is a tax-year-specific reference, not a permanent line number. Check the Form 1040 and Schedule 1 instructions for the tax year you are filing.

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What do tax forms and platform statements actually tell you?

A form or platform statement can help document activity, but it does not necessarily determine the tax character of event-contract trades. Form W-2G is issued by payers for certain gambling winnings or winnings subject to federal withholding; its reporting and withholding rules depend on the gambling category and other conditions. Those rules should not be treated as a universal threshold for prediction-market contracts or as proof that smaller amounts are tax-free.

Document or record What it may cover What it does not establish by itself
Form W-2G Certain gambling winnings or winnings subject to federal withholding, depending on the applicable category and conditions. That every prediction-market contract is gambling, or that no income is reportable if no form is issued.
Platform tax form The type of payment or transaction identified on that form; check its description and the platform’s account records. The correct tax classification of separate event-contract positions.
Platform profit-and-loss statement A platform’s summary of activity under its stated calculation method. A tax determination or a complete substitute for transaction-level records.

What a Kalshi statement illustrates

Kalshi’s Help Center article dated June 22, 2026, describes possible forms for interest (1099-INT), credits or rewards (1099-MISC), broker transaction proceeds from crypto transfers (1099-B), and digital-asset reporting through Zero Hash (1099-DA), where applicable. It says the account profit-and-loss figure includes fees and rebates, uses FIFO (first in, first out), and is updated monthly. Kalshi also says its P&L and tax information are not tax advice and that users remain responsible for accurate returns.

This is an example of one platform’s documentation, not a statement about every prediction-market provider or every user’s account. The article does not list a form for event-contract trading profits; that omission alone does not establish what forms another platform may issue or what a user’s reporting obligations are.

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What records should you keep?

Keep enough detail to reconstruct what you bought, sold, received, or settled, and to explain the amounts on your return. Save original platform exports and statements rather than relying only on a year-end summary.

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  • Transaction and settlement dates, contract or asset descriptions, and the quantity involved.
  • Amounts paid and received, including purchases, dispositions, settlements, fees, and rebates.
  • U.S.-dollar values and basis information where relevant to the treatment being applied.
  • Platform statements, transaction exports, receipts, and records supporting deposits or withdrawals.
  • For activity involving a wallet or other digital assets, relevant wallet records and the transaction details needed to trace the assets.

IRS Topic 419 calls for an accurate diary or similar record of gambling winnings and losses, supported by records such as statements, receipts, or other evidence. The IRS’s digital-asset guidance separately calls for records of purchases, receipts, sales, exchanges, and other dispositions, as well as fair market value in U.S. dollars for digital assets received as income. Use the digital-asset guidance when your activity actually involves digital assets; it does not mean every prediction-market position is itself a digital-asset transaction.

A practical transaction log

A spreadsheet or transaction log can make platform activity easier to reconcile. For each entry, record the date, contract or asset, action, quantity, amount, fees or rebates, settlement or disposition details, and the source document. Keep any calculation method used by the platform alongside the underlying export so you can identify differences.

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How do losses and digital-asset activity affect reporting?

Potential gambling losses

The IRS says casual gamblers may deduct gambling losses only if they itemize deductions, and only up to the amount of gambling income they report. It also requires records supporting both winnings and losses. This is general gambling guidance; it is not a definitive rule for event-contract losses unless the activity is correctly classified as gambling.

Digital-asset transactions

If a prediction-market-related transaction actually involves digital assets, separate digital-asset reporting rules may apply to that transaction. IRS guidance says digital-asset transactions must be reported whether or not they produce a taxable gain or loss. Form 1099-DA is used by brokers to report gross proceeds and, in some cases, basis; the IRS says taxable transactions can remain reportable even if the taxpayer receives no Form 1099-DA. Do not assume these rules apply to an event contract merely because a platform or account also supports crypto transfers.

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When should you ask a tax professional?

Get advice from a qualified tax professional familiar with prediction-market activity if you need to decide whether your contracts are gambling, capital assets, or subject to another tax regime; if you have substantial or complicated trading activity; or if platform summaries do not reconcile with your records. Bring transaction exports, statements, fee and rebate details, settlement records, and any relevant wallet history. A platform’s P&L may help organize the facts, but it does not settle their tax treatment.

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