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Which measure of the national debt is rising?
“National debt” can refer to more than one measure. The CBO’s headline projection is debt held by the public: Treasury borrowing held outside federal government accounts, including by individuals, businesses, financial institutions, and foreign investors. Gross federal debt also includes Treasury securities held by federal trust funds and other government accounts. These measures are not interchangeable. The CBO says government-account debt does not directly affect the economy and has no net effect on the federal budget.
The CBO’s February 2026 baseline estimated that debt held by the public totaled $30.2 trillion on September 30, 2025. At that date, roughly 70 percent was held by domestic entities and 30 percent by foreign investors. Those are dated ownership estimates, not a current breakdown.
What do the projections actually say?
The CBO’s February 2026 baseline covers fiscal years 2026 through 2036. Its extended baseline carries projections beyond that period under specified assumptions; the 2056 figure is not a prediction with the same near-term detail as the 10-year baseline.
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| Projection | Debt held by the public | Other relevant figure |
|---|---|---|
| FY2026, February 2026 baseline | 101% of GDP at fiscal year-end | $1.9 trillion deficit, or 5.8% of GDP |
| FY2036, February 2026 baseline | 120% of GDP at fiscal year-end | $3.1 trillion deficit |
| 2056, February 2026 extended baseline | 175% of GDP | Long-range projection under the CBO’s extended-baseline assumptions |
All figures in the table are CBO projections, not observed future outcomes. The 2026–2036 figures are from The Budget and Economic Outlook: 2026 to 2036 (February 2026); the 2056 figure is from the CBO’s extended-baseline analysis. GDP is the value of goods and services produced in the economy, so debt as a share of GDP compares the debt stock with the scale of the economy rather than giving a dollar total alone.
Why does debt keep growing?
Deficits add borrowing to the accumulated debt
A deficit is the annual gap that occurs when federal outlays exceed revenues. Borrowing to cover sustained deficits adds to the debt. In the CBO’s FY2026 baseline, outlays are 23.3 percent of GDP while revenues are 17.5 percent. Revenues rise to 17.8 percent of GDP by 2036 in that baseline, but the gap remains large enough for deficits to continue.
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Interest costs create a feedback loop
The amount of debt held by the public and the average interest rate on that debt both influence net interest outlays. As borrowing increases the debt stock, interest costs can rise; if the government borrows to pay those costs, that borrowing adds to debt as well. The CBO projects net interest outlays to rise from $1.0 trillion, or 3.3 percent of GDP, in 2026 to $2.1 trillion, or 4.6 percent of GDP, in 2036.
Interest is not the only source of spending pressure. The CBO projects Social Security, Medicare, and net interest to grow as shares of GDP later in the baseline period, partly offset by declining discretionary outlays.
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How certain is a 2056 debt projection?
It is conditional, not a forecast of an inevitable outcome. A CBO baseline is a benchmark built from specified laws and economic assumptions, not a claim that lawmakers will leave policy unchanged or that the economy will follow one exact path. The February 2026 baseline reflects the CBO’s economic forecast using trade policy as of November 20, 2025; economic developments and laws in place as of December 3, 2025; and laws in place as of January 14, 2026. The CBO says it does not include appropriation acts passed after January 14, 2026.
Interest rates are one important uncertainty. In a separate analysis published September 24, 2026, the CBO examined a scenario in which rates rise until they are one percentage point above the extended baseline. Under that scenario, debt reaches 222 percent of GDP in 2056, rather than 175 percent in the extended baseline. This illustrates how sensitive a long-range debt path can be to assumptions; it does not mean the CBO expects rates to follow that path.
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The same September analysis compared the extended baseline with a scenario that holds debt at its 2026 level of 101 percent of GDP. Average primary deficits—deficits excluding net interest—are 2.1 percent of GDP in the extended baseline over 2026–2056, compared with 0.2 percent in the debt-stabilizing scenario. The comparison shows that keeping the debt-to-GDP ratio from rising would require a markedly different primary-budget path under those assumptions; it does not prescribe a particular mix of tax or spending changes.
Independent reader supportYour contribution helps us test, update, and keep practical guides available for everyone.What could a “reckoning” mean—and what does it not mean?
A rising debt burden can leave less room in the budget as interest costs take a larger share of federal resources, and it can make the outlook more sensitive to rates and policy choices. That is the fiscal pressure behind the warning. The CBO states in its February 2026 report: “If federal debt held by the public kept growing faster than GDP, as CBO projects it would under current law, it would have far-reaching implications for the nation’s fiscal and economic outlook.”
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That warning is not a declaration that the United States will default, nor does the projection identify a date when a crisis must happen. The figures establish a rising debt trajectory under stated assumptions; they do not establish a specific crisis date or outcome.
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