US stocks have continued to rise even as interest rates and bond yields moved higher, but that resilience does not mean equities are immune to rates. The case for the rally rests on strong reported corporate earnings and economic activity; inflation, bond competition, valuations and the payoff from AI investment remain important risks.
Why have US stocks risen while rates and yields climbed?
Higher yields can make bonds more attractive relative to shares and increase the rate used to value future corporate profits. But they are only one influence on prices. MoneyWeek’s 2 October 2026 account argues that strong earnings and economic activity helped offset that pressure, alongside investment associated with AI infrastructure.
The article describes gains extending beyond technology, citing energy, banks and industrials as areas with their own supports or links to data-center investment. Those are MoneyWeek’s sector characterisations, rather than independently verified sector-return figures.
What do earnings and market-return figures show?
Earnings are a substantial part of the explanation, though published estimates differ. S&P Global Market Intelligence’s 25 September 2026 review said 78% of S&P 500 companies beat second-quarter earnings-per-share estimates and reported 53% year-over-year earnings growth. MoneyWeek reported 50% growth for the quarter. The sources’ calculation coverage is not reconciled, so the figures should be kept separate rather than blended. S&P Global Market Intelligence’s review also describes volatility associated with renewed US–Iran hostilities, oil prices, Treasury yields and inflation concerns.
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MoneyWeek said the S&P 500 was up 12% year to date and the Nasdaq 100 about 20%, but its passage does not specify the precise cutoff date or whether those are price or total returns. Separately, S&P Dow Jones Indices recorded an S&P 500 price return of 12.28% year to date as of 31 August 2026 and 13.18% as of 3 September 2026. Neither dated index figure is the return through the article’s 2 October publication date. S&P Dow Jones Indices’ S&P 500 page describes the index’s float-adjusted market-cap weighting.
What could make the rally vulnerable?
Inflation and further rate pressure
If inflation proves persistent, interest rates and bond yields could rise further. That could increase pressure on equity valuations and make bonds more competitive for investors. MoneyWeek identifies inflation and rising yields as potential brakes, while S&P Global Market Intelligence’s late-September review notes inflation concerns among the factors accompanying market volatility.
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Whether AI spending produces durable profits
Investment in AI infrastructure can support companies supplying the build-out, but spending is not the same as lasting returns. MoneyWeek raises the possibility that investors doubt whether the spending boom will translate into profits that justify current expectations. The key question is whether earnings endure after the investment surge, not simply whether companies are spending now.
Valuation and bond competition
MoneyWeek reported that the forward price-to-earnings multiple had declined to 19 from 23 a year earlier. The article’s retrieved account does not establish the underlying valuation series or methodology, so treat that comparison as MoneyWeek’s report, not as a verified index-provider statistic. Its suggested explanations include doubts about AI’s lasting payoff, inflation risk and bonds’ renewed appeal. A lower multiple does not remove the possibility of losses if earnings weaken or required returns rise.
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How should the economic-strength claims be read?
MoneyWeek cited an Atlanta Fed GDPNow estimate of 5% annualized growth for the third quarter of 2026 and a purchasing managers’ activity reading at a five-year-plus high. Those observations were not verified against dated primary releases here; they are best understood as claims reported by MoneyWeek, not as independently confirmed readings. Even if activity is strong, a brisk economy can support corporate sales while also complicating the inflation and rate outlook.
Independent reader supportYour contribution helps us test, update, and keep practical guides available for everyone.What do the historical comparisons tell investors?
MoneyWeek compares the market with the 1994 yield surge and the late-1990s technology boom. In its account, the 1994 episode included an initial 8% decline before a recovery as earnings held up; it also says the market later fell 49% from its 2000 peak after the dotcom-era rally. Those historical figures are reported by MoneyWeek and are not independently verified calculations here.
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The useful lesson is not that either period predicts today’s outcome. Rising yields do not mechanically determine the next market move, and strong near-term performance does not rule out a later reversal. The comparison instead highlights competing conditions: whether earnings remain resilient, whether inflation changes the policy-rate path, how attractive bonds are relative to equities, and whether AI capital spending generates lasting profits. MoneyWeek does not provide a quantified scenario model that determines which force will prevail.
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