The 27 West Coast colleges discussed in an Education Next analysis cannot be identified from the article: it reports results for the group but does not publish a school-by-school list or explain why the names are absent. More importantly, the analysis does not show that all 27 colleges are forecasting deficits. It models how long their cash might last under stated assumptions; that is a measure of potential liquidity risk, not a confirmed forecast from each institution or a prediction that any particular school will close.
Which 27 colleges and universities are being discussed?
Education Next’s article by Steven M. Shulman and Michael B. Horn says they applied their analysis to 27 West Coast schools with profiles similar to a group of 44 private, tuition-dependent New England institutions. The article publishes aggregate results for the West Coast group, but it does not name its members. It also gives no stated reason for leaving out the names. So readers cannot reliably identify the 27 schools from this article, and assigning names by guesswork would be misleading.
The article does name the 44 New England institutions in its analysis: American International, Assumption, Babson, Bates, Bay Path, Bentley, Bryant, Champlain, Clark, Colby, Colby-Sawyer, Connecticut College, Curry, Emerson, Emmanuel, Endicott, Fairfield, Gordon, Holy Cross, Husson, Johnson & Wales, Lasell, Lesley, Merrimack, Middlebury, Mount Holyoke, New England College, Norwich, Our Lady of the Elms, Providence, Quinnipiac, RISD, Rivier, Roger Williams, Sacred Heart, Saint Anselm, Saint Michael’s, Salve Regina, Springfield, Stonehill, Suffolk, Trinity, University of New England, and Wheaton. Those are the New England sample—not the unnamed West Coast comparison group. Education Next’s article makes this distinction important because it also reports a separate statistic about 27 of the 44 New England schools.
What does “at risk” mean in this analysis?
The study estimates “staying power” from published financial statements. It focuses on cash and equivalents and primary net cash flow, calculated as the operating outcome plus depreciation, minus debt retirement and capitalized expenditures. Baseline staying power estimates how long cash would last if a college continued its recent ordinary operations without extraordinary intervention. The authors also calculate maximum staying power by including unrestricted quasi-endowment investments as a possible backstop. The authors’ methodology is about cash available to meet obligations, not simply the value of an institution’s net assets on paper.
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The baseline measure is a model built from financial results and assumptions; it is not necessarily a forecast that a college itself has made or adopted. The authors’ reported thresholds classify institutions as at risk when their modeled staying power falls below three years on the baseline measure or below 10 years on the maximum measure. Those classifications indicate potential liquidity strain, not certain insolvency or closure.
What did the model estimate for the West Coast group?
For the 27 West Coast schools, the authors report the following results under the baseline staying-power threshold:
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| Enrollment scenario | West Coast schools classed as at risk | Share classed as at risk |
|---|---|---|
| No enrollment decline | 13 of 27 | 48% |
| 10% enrollment decline | 17 of 27 | 63% |
These are group-level model results; the article does not connect an individual result to a named West Coast institution. The 10% decline is a scenario, not a report that every school has experienced that decline.
Why can falling enrollment increase financial pressure?
For a tuition-dependent college, fewer students can mean less tuition revenue while many operating costs remain. If ordinary cash flow is already weak, a revenue decline can shorten the modeled time before cash is exhausted. That is why the authors compare a no-decline baseline with an enrollment-decline scenario. The result depends on the assumptions and financial data in the model; it does not establish that enrollment is the sole cause of any one institution’s financial condition.
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The article separately reports that first-time matriculations fell by an average of 8.8% between 2023 and 2024 at 27 of the 44 New England schools, citing IPEDS. This statistic concerns a subset of the named New England sample, not the 27 unnamed West Coast schools, and should not be confused with the modeled 10% West Coast decline scenario.
Does an at-risk result mean a college will close?
No. Shulman and Horn caution that institutions below the staying-power thresholds are not necessarily destined to close, merge, or declare financial exigency. A college may take steps that change its cash outlook, and the model does not establish the future decisions or outcomes of any individual school. The threshold is a warning about modeled liquidity, not a closure announcement.
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The New England results offer context for the method but do not identify the West Coast schools: the authors say 15 of the 44 New England institutions were already facing serious liquidity challenges, or would do so shortly, at current enrollment based on audited fiscal-year 2024 results. That is a separate finding about a named sample; it is not evidence that the unnamed 27 West Coast institutions are individually forecasting deficits.
Independent reader supportYour contribution helps us test, update, and keep practical guides available for everyone.Why quasi-endowment assets change the estimate
Including unrestricted quasi-endowment investments can extend the modeled runway because those assets may be available as a backstop. But using them regularly to pay ordinary operating costs can weaken long-term sustainability. Baseline staying power and maximum staying power therefore answer different questions: the first estimates runway from cash and equivalents under ordinary operations; the second shows how the estimate changes if eligible investments are drawn on.
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Neither measure should be confused with a regulator’s financial-responsibility assessment or with an institution’s own public budget forecast. To interpret a claim about a college’s finances, check which measure it uses, whether it is a baseline or a stress scenario, what financial year and school sample it covers, and whether it is a model estimate or the school’s own projection.
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