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A free scan shows the junk files, broken settings and background clutter dragging Windows down - then fixes them in one click.Free scan · Windows 10 & 11The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield fell after September’s weaker-than-expected jobs report, then turned higher. Reuters reported it at 5.281% late on Friday, Oct. 2, 2026, up 4.72 basis points after an earlier dip to 5.1570%. The reversal shows why a soft jobs number does not translate mechanically into lower yields: investors also weigh inflation, growth, Treasury borrowing and changing expectations for Federal Reserve policy.
What the September jobs report actually said
The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported that nonfarm payroll employment rose by 29,000 in September 2026 and the unemployment rate was 4.2%. The agency described both measures as little changed. Unemployment had remained within a 4.1%–4.3% range since March, and payroll gains averaged 45,000 a month over the preceding 12 months. The BLS release was published on Oct. 2, 2026.
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Those official results were weaker than the figures Reuters reported economists had expected: 90,000 additional payroll jobs and 4.1% unemployment. Reuters also said August’s payroll gain was revised to 133,000 from a previously reported 162,000. The forecast figures are reported expectations, not BLS statistics.
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Outbyte Driver Updater FREEFix the driver behind crashes, sound loss and screen glitchesFind Drivers →Outbyte PC Repair FREEClear out junk files and repair common Windows errorsFree Scan →Why the report has two kinds of labor figures
The Employment Situation combines two surveys. The household survey measures labor-force status, including unemployment; the establishment survey measures nonfarm payroll employment, hours and earnings by industry. They track different aspects of the labor market, so their figures should not be treated as interchangeable.
How the 10-year yield reversed during the session
Investors initially bought Treasuries after the employment release, pushing yields down. Selling resumed later. In its late-session account, Reuters reported that the 10-year yield had risen 4.72 basis points to 5.281%, after touching an intraday low of 5.1570%. These are readings at different points in a fast-moving session, not competing estimates of one fixed closing level.
| Maturity | Late-session level and daily move Reuters reported | Earlier intraday low Reuters reported |
|---|---|---|
| 2-year | 4.827%, up 3.98 basis points | 4.6934% |
| 10-year | 5.281%, up 4.72 basis points | 5.1570% |
| 30-year | 5.6321%, up 2.91 basis points | not stated by Reuters |
All figures in the table are Reuters’ late-session Oct. 2, 2026 report of market data; the daily changes compare with the prior session. The 10-year is a benchmark for longer-term borrowing costs, but its yield is not simply a forecast of the next Fed move. The 2-year tends to track expectations for near-term Fed rates more closely, while the 10-year also reflects longer-run forces. Reuters put the 10-year/2-year spread at positive 45.2 basis points.
Why yields could rise even after a weak report
A Treasury yield reflects the price investors are willing to pay for the bond and the return that price implies. A weaker labor report can encourage bond buying if investors expect slower growth or a less restrictive path for short-term rates. But bond prices and yields can move the other way when investors focus on other risks, revise policy expectations, or sell holdings.
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Reuters described the day’s move as a reversal, not as proof of one cause. It cited solid economic growth, heavy debt issuance, inflation concerns, shifting rate expectations, and profit-taking or repositioning ahead of the weekend. The report does not establish how much any one factor contributed.
Market participants offered individual interpretations. Molly Brooks, U.S. rates strategist for TD Securities, said the report reduced concern about a possible labor-market reacceleration that could add to inflation worries. Robert Bernstone, head of trading at SummitTX Capital in New York, described “cautious optimism” alongside concerns about the economy and inflation. Carol Schleif, chief market strategist at BMO Private Wealth, said combining the prior month’s above-average result with September’s softer one would give more insight. These are attributed market views, not official Fed guidance or a consensus forecast.
What market pricing said about Fed rates
At the time of Reuters’ report, LSEG data showed traders assigning roughly an 80% probability to no rate change at the October meeting, up from 74% before the jobs data. The market-implied probability of a December hike was around 86%. These probabilities describe prices in the market at that reporting time; they can change and do not indicate what the Federal Reserve has decided.
Independent reader supportYour contribution helps us test, update, and keep practical guides available for everyone.Why the weekly picture differed by maturity
The day’s increase did not mean every Treasury maturity was following the same weekly path. Reuters said the 10-year was on course for an approximately 10-basis-point weekly rise and its fifth consecutive weekly advance. The 2-year, by contrast, was set for its first weekly decline since the second week of August. A single day’s direction and a week’s trend answer different questions.
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