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1Fix the driver behind crashes, sound loss and screen glitches2Clear out junk files and repair common Windows errors3Scan for outdated or missing drivers - takes under a minuteTD Cowen reportedly raised its bitcoin forecasts but left its Strategy (MSTR) price target at $260 and its rating at Buy. The reason for the apparent mismatch is that a higher bitcoin price may improve Strategy’s overall economics without delivering an equal gain to each common share: dilution and claims senior to common stock can absorb part of the benefit.
What TD Cowen reportedly changed—and what it did not
In a report published October 8, 2026, The Block said TD Cowen analysts Lance Vitanza and Jonnathan Navarrete raised their bitcoin outlook while keeping their MSTR target at $260 and their Buy rating. The Block reported that their model put bitcoin near $109,000 at the end of 2026 and $280,000 by 2029. Those are analyst forecasts, not observed prices, company guidance or guaranteed outcomes. The Block’s October 8 report
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For comparison, The Block cited QCP Capital’s fourth-quarter base case of $80,000–$90,000. That is a separate forecast, not a competing measurement of bitcoin’s current price.
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Outbyte Driver Updater FREEScan for outdated or missing drivers - takes under a minuteDriver Scan →Outbyte PC Repair FREEClear out junk files and repair common Windows errorsFree Scan →The same October 8 article put MSTR at around $150, making the $260 target roughly 73% above the share price at that time. Both the share price and implied upside are dated market snapshots, not current figures.
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Why a stronger bitcoin outlook need not lift the per-share target equally
Strategy’s bitcoin holdings can gain value as bitcoin rises, but aggregate holdings are only one part of the value attributable to common shareholders. New common shares can spread the company’s bitcoin-related economics across more shares; preferred securities and debt also represent claims ahead of MSTR common equity. Funds used to build cash reserves or support preferred-stock obligations are not being used for immediate bitcoin purchases, although reserves may provide financing flexibility.
According to The Block, the analysts wrote: “Capital structure expansion and associated dilution temper the per-share benefit.” The Block also reported that preferred-stock repurchases and cash-reserve building could use some of the benefit that higher bitcoin prices might otherwise produce for MSTR holders. The article does not provide enough of TD Cowen’s valuation inputs to reproduce its $260 target or quantify a precise dilution effect.
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MSTR is common equity, not a fixed bitcoin claim
Strategy’s SEC-filed investor briefing describes MSTR as common equity junior to debt and preferred stock, and says MSTR holders have no direct claim on particular bitcoin. The company characterizes MSTR as corporate equity rather than a spot bitcoin ETF. In practical terms, owning an MSTR share is not the same as owning a fixed fraction of the company’s bitcoin: the company’s assets, liabilities, financing decisions and share count all matter. Strategy investor relations
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The Block’s October 8 reporting said Strategy was valued at roughly one times net asset value after an mNAV low of 0.63 in June, citing Saylor Tracker. It also reported Strategy holdings of 848,000 BTC and approximately $4.5 billion in unrealized profit. These are time-specific reported figures, not permanent company metrics.
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A separate Strategy investor-briefing snapshot dated August 10, 2026 listed 840,447 BTC, a $4.65 billion USD reserve, $36.68 billion net reserve after debt and preferred stock, and 1.06x mNAV. Those earlier company figures should not be substituted for the October values: they reflect a different date and source. Strategy investor relations
Independent reader supportYour contribution helps us test, update, and keep practical guides available for everyone.Keep the forecasts, rating and target in context
TD Cowen’s October view is a third-party analyst opinion, not a Strategy forecast. A useful point of comparison—not a continuation of the October call—is Strategy’s Q1 2026 analyst table, which listed TD Cowen at $385 with a Buy rating on April 20, 2026, alongside a $125,000 bitcoin forecast. Strategy says analyst views in the table are third-party opinions, not endorsed by the company, can change and are not investment advice. The April figures are earlier and must not be confused with the $260 target and bitcoin forecasts The Block reported in October. Strategy investor relations
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The key distinction is between a bullish view on bitcoin and a valuation for MSTR common shares. Assessing the latter also requires attention to bitcoin held per share, debt and preferred claims, new share or preferred issuance and repurchases, reserve allocations, and MSTR’s valuation relative to net asset value. The available October reporting does not disclose enough detail to determine how TD Cowen weighted each factor.
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