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What is pushing smartphone prices up?
Memory costs are the clearest pressure
The strongest documented driver is the cost and availability of memory. In its August 26, 2026 forecast update, IDC said NAND and DRAM costs had risen by more than 300% year over year, leaving phone vendors with fewer ways to absorb the increase. IDC links the supply squeeze partly to demand for components from AI-related markets, but the available figures do not show how much of a phone’s final price increase is attributable to AI.
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Manufacturers can respond to higher component costs by raising retail prices, accepting lower margins, changing configurations, or shifting their product line-up. The mix of these choices varies by model and market, so a component-cost surge does not translate into the same percentage increase on every phone.
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Entry-level devices generally have less margin to absorb cost increases. Gartner said in its February 26, 2026 forecast that the effect would fall disproportionately on basic smartphones. IDC’s Q2 update described vendors repositioning their portfolios, including using older models or 4G variants to defend some lower price bands. IDC’s August forecast also identified mass-market buyers, especially in emerging markets, as more exposed.
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That can mean fewer genuinely low-cost choices, older hardware remaining on sale longer, or different memory and connectivity configurations at a given price. It does not establish that every budget model has become more expensive, or that any specific model has disappeared.
How much have smartphone prices risen?
The headline figures below are not interchangeable. Gartner forecast a change in smartphone prices; IDC forecast the global average selling price (ASP), which is influenced by the mix of phones sold; Counterpoint reported changes in existing retail prices and new-launch prices. Each is a dated estimate, not a universal price change for individual buyers.
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| Source and date | Measure | Reported figure |
|---|---|---|
| Gartner, February 26, 2026 | Forecast smartphone price change in 2026 versus 2025 | 13% higher |
| Gartner, February 26, 2026 | Forecast smartphone shipment change in 2026 versus 2025 | 8.4% lower |
| IDC, August 26, 2026 | Forecast global smartphone ASP in 2026 | $581, up 27.6% year over year; revised from IDC’s preceding-quarter projection of $550 |
| IDC, August 26, 2026 | Forecast worldwide smartphone shipments in 2026 | Down 16.7% year over year |
| IDC, August 26, 2026 | Forecast total smartphone market value in 2026 | Up 6.3% to $613 billion |
| Counterpoint Research, September 3, 2026 | Existing global smartphone retail prices so far in 2026; new launches year over year | Existing prices up about 15% on average; new launches about 25% costlier |
| IDC, Q2 2026 update, updated September 17, 2026 | Historical worldwide shipments in Q2 2026 | 276.3 million units, down 7.4% year over year |
Sources: Gartner, IDC’s August forecast, Counterpoint Research, and IDC’s Q2 update.
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Why those forecasts differ
The estimates use different definitions and were published at different points in the year. Gartner’s 13% is a February forecast of smartphone prices. IDC’s August 27.6% is a forecast for ASP, not the increase on every phone’s sticker price. ASP can rise when buyers purchase a greater share of expensive phones, even if some individual models change little. Counterpoint’s figures describe existing retail prices and new launches, not the same measure as IDC’s ASP.
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IDC’s forecast illustrates the mix effect: it projected fewer units shipped in 2026 but a higher ASP and a larger total market value. A shrinking number of sales alongside a higher average price is possible when the products that do sell are more expensive on average. These are forecasts, not final full-year results.
What higher prices mean for buyers
Budget buyers may have to trade off age, features, or connectivity
At the lower end, compare the actual configuration rather than the model name alone. Check memory and storage, whether the phone is 4G or 5G, and whether the listing is for a current-generation model or an older device. A lower sticker price may reflect a different configuration or an older product, not an equivalent phone at a discount.
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Premium phones are not guaranteed to rise by the same amount
Higher-end vendors and products may have more room to absorb costs, and the sales mix can shift toward premium phones as entry-level choices become less attractive. The market-wide forecasts do not establish the price history of any named model, so compare the exact device, storage tier, seller, and offer you are considering.
Global forecasts are not local checkout prices
The figures above describe global markets. They do not account for your country’s taxes, currency movements, retailer inventory, carrier subsidies, trade-in offers, or temporary promotions. Verify the current unlocked price and the total cost under any carrier or financing deal in your own market before deciding.
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Should you buy now, wait, or keep your phone?
Keep a working phone longer if it still meets your needs
Extending a phone’s useful life avoids a purchase while prices and product availability are in flux. First check that it still receives software and security updates, and that its battery and performance are adequate for your day-to-day use. Gartner identified longer ownership as one likely response to entry-level price pressure; it does not specify how long an individual buyer should wait.
Consider refurbished or second-hand devices carefully
A refurbished or used phone can be an alternative to a new model, but its lower price is only useful if the device is suitable for the time you plan to own it. Check the remaining software-support period, battery condition and likely replacement cost, seller grading, warranty and return terms, storage configuration, and compatibility with your mobile network. Gartner identified refurbished and second-hand devices as possible buyer responses; the market forecasts do not evaluate individual models or sellers.
Compare total cost, not just the headline price
- Upfront and total cost: compare the current cash price with the full repayment amount and conditions of any financing or carrier offer.
- Support life: confirm how long the specific device is expected to receive software and security updates.
- Condition and protection: for a used phone, check battery health, warranty coverage, seller grading, and the return window.
- Fit for use: verify RAM and storage, network compatibility, and whether the device supports the features you need.
- Ownership period: weigh the total cost against how long you expect to keep the phone.
There is no market forecast in these figures that can tell you whether a particular model will be cheaper next month. If your current device works and remains supported, waiting is a reasonable option; if you need a replacement, compare current offers for the exact configuration and calculate the total cost rather than assuming the global forecast applies directly to it.
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