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Outbyte PC Repair FREEClear out junk files and repair common Windows errorsFree Scan →Outbyte Driver Updater FREEScan for outdated or missing drivers - takes under a minuteDriver Scan →U.S. money-market funds took in $158 billion in the first three quarters of 2026, according to TD Securities data reported by Reuters on October 6. That is a slower pace than in recent years, but the comparison is not like-for-like: the 2026 figure covers nine months, while the earlier figures cover full years. Funds were still adding Treasury bills; the change was slower accumulation, not a sell-off.
The slowdown is one possible reason short-term Treasury bills offered more yield relative to overnight index swaps (OIS). It was not the only one: expected heavy bill issuance and expectations of rate hikes also mattered. Reuters reported that repo markets remained orderly, and the Federal Reserve described money-market conditions as stable in July, though somewhat softer than earlier in the year.
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What slowed, and what did not
| Measure | Reported figure | What it means |
|---|---|---|
| Money-market fund inflows | $158 billion in the first three quarters of 2026, versus $823 billion in all of 2025 and $840 billion in 2024; TD Securities data reported by Reuters on October 6, 2026. | The 2026 total covers nine months, unlike the full-year comparisons. It indicates a slower pace, not a direct year-over-year comparison. |
| Funds’ Treasury-bill holdings | Up about 4% from year-end 2025 through the end of August 2026, versus an 18% increase over all of 2025; Investment Company Institute data reported by Reuters. | Holdings were still rising. The evidence points to slower bill accumulation, not net selling. |
Inflows and assets measure different things. Inflows are new money entering funds over a period; assets are the accumulated amount held at a point in time. The Federal Reserve’s May 2026 Financial Stability Report put total money-market fund assets at $7.9 trillion in January 2026, up from $7.2 trillion a year earlier, with government funds accounting for most of the increase. A large asset base can therefore coexist with slower new inflows.
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That distinction matters because funds can remain major holders and buyers of bills even as the flow of new cash they can allocate slows. The change is in incremental demand, not evidence that money funds have turned into net sellers.
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What the bill/OIS spread says
A Treasury bill yield can be compared with the OIS rate, a market benchmark for the expected short-term policy-rate path. When a bill yields more relative to OIS, it is offering greater compensation than that benchmark at the time. The spread can reflect supply and demand as well as policy expectations; it does not isolate one cause or measure credit risk alone.
| Instrument | Spread reported | Context in Reuters’ October 6, 2026 report |
|---|---|---|
| Three-month Treasury bill versus OIS | Nearly 10 basis points on Monday, October 5. | The spread had reached its widest level since September 2024 during the prior week. |
| Six-month Treasury bill versus OIS | 11.3 basis points on Monday, October 5. | It had touched 12.5 basis points, its highest level since April 2025. |
These are observations reported on October 6, not live market quotes. A wider spread is consistent with bills needing to offer more relative yield to attract buyers, but it cannot establish that slower fund inflows alone pushed yields higher.
Why bill yields faced pressure
The market had to absorb both a change in marginal demand and expectations about the amount of paper coming to market. Barclays estimated Treasury bill issuance at roughly $225 billion in October and $160 billion in November; those were estimates, not final issuance totals. Reuters also cited rate-hike expectations as a factor. A strong equity market may have reduced investors’ incentive to shift cash into money-market funds, further slowing the flow of new money.
- Less new cash: With slower inflows, funds have less incremental money to allocate across short-term investments.
- More expected supply: If bill issuance rises while marginal fund demand slows, Treasury may need to offer more yield to attract other buyers.
- Changing rate expectations: Expectations of higher policy rates can affect short-term yields and their relationship to OIS, independently of fund flows.
As Sam Earl, a U.S. rates strategist at Barclays, put it in the Reuters report: “If money funds are not getting those inflows, then they have to think about where they want to put their money.” TD Securities’ Gennadiy Goldberg, head of U.S. rates strategy, said: “The Treasury is keen to focus more of the issuance on the very front of the curve in bills, but the largest source of demand is slowing and that’s concerning.” These comments describe a demand-and-supply concern, not proof of a market break.
How bill demand can affect repo markets
Money-market funds allocate cash among instruments including Treasury bills and repurchase agreements, or repo. Repo is short-term secured borrowing, commonly backed by securities such as Treasuries. Bills and repo can compete for fund cash: when funds buy more bills, they may have less cash available to lend in repo.
A Federal Reserve research note published August 26, 2026, explains that Treasury bills are close substitutes for repo lending in money-market fund portfolios. If privately held bill supply increases, funds may direct more cash to bills and less to repo, potentially putting upward pressure on repo rates. This is a conditional transmission channel, not evidence that the reported slowdown in inflows had already caused repo stress.
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The broader backdrop also matters. In its July 2026 Monetary Policy Report, the Federal Reserve said it had purchased nearly $250 billion in Treasury bills since early January: approximately $160 billion in reserve-management purchases and $90 billion in reinvestments of principal payments on agency mortgage-backed securities. The Fed characterized money-market conditions as stable, while noting they had softened somewhat since the beginning of the year; it also said money-market funds maintained near-record assets. These actions and conditions provide context, but do not rule out a marginal-demand effect in the private bill market.
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A free scan shows the junk files, broken settings and background clutter dragging Windows down - then fixes them in one click.Free scan · Windows 10 & 11Nor should broad Treasury-bill buying figures be confused with money-fund holdings. The Federal Reserve’s Financial Accounts table F3.2.t reported economy-wide net purchases of Treasury bills of $929.0 billion in 2026 Q1 and $116.1 billion in Q2. Those totals cover the broader domestic financial accounts, not money-market funds alone.
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What to watch next
Fourth-quarter flows could change the picture. Reuters noted that money-market fund inflows often accelerate late in the year as investors prepare for year-end liquidity needs, taxes, and portfolio rebalancing. That pattern is historical seasonality, not a guarantee of a rebound in 2026. Whether inflows pick up, bill supply matches expectations, and bill/OIS spreads widen or narrow will help show whether the slower pace of fund buying remains a source of pressure.
For now, the evidence supports monitoring a vulnerability in short-term funding markets—not calling it a crisis. Funds were still accumulating bills, Reuters described repo markets as orderly, and the Federal Reserve’s July assessment was that money-market conditions remained stable, albeit somewhat softer.
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