Eni’s reason for continuing to invest in politically risky countries is a portfolio strategy: the company seeks exploration opportunities and long-term production, then connects upstream output to gas, trading and power businesses. That may create more ways to realize value, but Eni’s disclosures do not show that high-risk investments earn better risk-adjusted returns—or that other oil companies avoid the same countries.
What Eni says it is trying to gain
Eni’s 2026–2030 strategic plan presents exploration and production as central to its business. The company says exploration has helped it grow its portfolio and that it seeks opportunities across different geographies and geological plays. The logic is to spread exposure across discoveries and projects rather than rely on one country, reservoir or phase of development.
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Eni says it has discovered more than 11 billion barrels of oil equivalent since 2014, including around 900 million boe in 2025. It expects an average reserve-replacement ratio above 140% over 2026–2030. Those are company-reported figures and a forward-looking company expectation, not independent verification of future reserves or returns.
The plan also describes linking upstream production with gas, trading and power. In principle, those connections can give a producer options beyond selling crude at the wellhead. Eni also says it may realize value early from some discoveries, potentially limiting how much capital it must commit over a project’s full life. These are the company’s stated strategic rationales; the available disclosures do not quantify how much they offset country risk in any particular investment.
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How much of Eni’s portfolio is exposed?
At December 31, 2025, about 84% of Eni’s proved hydrocarbon reserves were in non-OECD countries, according to its 2025 annual report. Non-OECD is a broad economic grouping, not a synonym for political instability. Eni says some of its operating environments are less stable and identifies Libya, Venezuela and Egypt among the areas where it is particularly exposed to political risk.
The same report describes risks that can affect projects and revenue: unstable political, institutional, social or legal frameworks; conflict and disruption; weak public finances or state counterparties; difficulty obtaining supplies; sanctions; and delays in government authorizations. These are risks Eni identifies in its own filings, not a claim that every listed country presents the same conditions.
For scale, Eni reported 2025 production of 1.73 million barrels of oil equivalent per day and an organic reserve-replacement ratio of 167%. Those company-reported group figures provide operating context, but they do not establish that high-risk-country exposure caused the results or was profitable on a risk-adjusted basis. (Eni FY 2025 results, February 26, 2026)
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A long-standing operating partnership
Eni says it has operated in Libya since 1959. It conducts operations through Mellitah Oil and Gas B.V., a 50:50 joint company with Libya’s National Oil Corporation (NOC). In a May 2025 announcement, Eni described ongoing work on three projects sanctioned in 2023: Sabratha Compression, Bouri Gas Utilization and Bahr Essalam Structures A&E. It said drilling on the Bahr Essalam project had begun in April 2025 and forecast Bouri start-up in 2026. Those were the status and schedule reported at the time, not confirmation that the forecast was subsequently met. (Eni, May 5, 2025)
Material production does not mean low risk
Eni’s 2025 annual report puts Libya production at 162,000 boe/d, approximately 10% of group production. It says continuity in Eni’s activity areas supported production and development, while also describing Libya as a source of geopolitical risk and uncertainty amid political division. The example shows that operations can persist in a difficult setting; it does not show that the political risk is small or that the production level is assured.
Independent reader supportYour contribution helps us test, update, and keep practical guides available for everyone.Venezuela: licenses, receivables and changing conditions
Eni’s first-half 2026 filing described operating conditions as gradually improving after political relations between the United States and Venezuela were restored and crude-export bans were lifted. Eni said it had obtained general licenses allowing investment activity and oil marketing. The filing also said Eni was not authorized at that time to execute debt swaps.
The same filing reported nominal credit exposure to state oil company PDVSA of $2.7 billion, with an impairment provision of about 55%. These are Eni’s figures for the first half of 2026, not a current estimate beyond that reporting period. The combination illustrates how investment access can coexist with payment uncertainty and constraints on how receivables may be recovered; the filing does not establish the scope of any license beyond the company’s description. (Eni first-half 2026 filing)
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What the country examples do—and do not—show
Eni names Egypt alongside Libya and Venezuela as an area of particular political exposure, but the cited disclosures do not provide a comparably detailed, current Egypt case. Conditions in Libya or Venezuela should not be assumed to apply there.
Nor does the headline’s “everyone else avoids” framing hold up as a factual comparison: the cited materials do not establish that other oil majors avoid these countries. A like-for-like comparison would need evidence on peers’ reserves, operating interests, project commitments and risk disclosures. What can be said from Eni’s filings is narrower: the company has a large non-OECD reserve base, maintains activity in places it identifies as politically risky, and presents exploration, portfolio diversity and integration as strategic reasons for doing so. Its reported results do not, on their own, demonstrate that those choices outperform lower-risk alternatives.
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