El Niño can increase the chance of weather-related power interruptions in some U.S. regions by shifting winter storm patterns, but it does not create a predictable nationwide outage increase. The climate pattern changes the odds of snow, ice, wind, rain and temperature extremes; a particular outage still depends on local conditions, damaged equipment, electricity demand, fuel availability and grid operations. In fact, a 2024 preprint examining outages from 2000 through 2023 found higher counts during La Niña over a broad developing-winter-to-decaying-summer period, so the evidence does not support saying that every El Niño winter is more outage-prone.
What El Niño changes during winter
El Niño is the warm phase of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), a coupled ocean-atmosphere pattern in the tropical Pacific. Its largest effects in the Northern Hemisphere usually appear during winter because changes in tropical heating alter the jet stream, storm tracks and the distribution of temperature and precipitation across North America.
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NOAA does not define El Niño from warm ocean water alone. Operational criteria include tropical Pacific sea-surface temperatures at least 0.5°C above average in the Niño 3.4 region for five consecutive overlapping three-month periods, together with weakened trade winds and an eastward shift in tropical rainfall. On February 1, 2026, NOAA moved to operational use of the Relative Oceanic Niño Index (RONI), which subtracts tropical-average sea-surface-temperature departures and is less dependent on whichever 30-year baseline is selected.
A strong event can move the Pacific jet stream and the winter-storm track. NOAA describes the typical U.S. pattern as wetter and cooler conditions across much of the southern tier, from central California to Florida and along the East Coast, while the northern tier through the Great Lakes tends to be warmer and drier. These are seasonal probabilities, not promises about a specific city, week or storm.
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Which parts of the United States may see more winter-weather exposure?
The following regional tendencies are useful for understanding exposure, but they are not outage forecasts. Local topography, the exact strength and timing of an event, and shorter-term weather patterns can override the seasonal signal.
| Area | Typical El Niño winter tendency | Possible power-system exposure |
|---|---|---|
| Central California and the southern tier | Wetter and cooler on average; a stronger event can steer more winter storms into the region. | Heavy rain, mountain snow, wind, flooding or saturated ground can damage lines, block access and slow repairs. |
| Florida and the East Coast | Often wetter and cooler than average, with a greater tendency toward storm activity. | Wind, rain, coastal impacts and occasional wintry weather can affect distribution equipment; cold snaps can also increase electric heating demand where it is used. |
| Northern tier and Great Lakes | Typically warmer and drier than average. | Lower seasonal snow exposure does not eliminate isolated blizzards, ice storms or Arctic outbreaks. A warm average can coexist with a severe short-lived cold event. |
| Other local areas | No single national rule applies; the seasonal signal varies with geography and event strength. | Risk depends on the local mix of weather hazards, tree exposure, grid design, demand, generation and fuel delivery. |
That distinction matters because “more winter storms” is not the same as “more outages.” A storm must produce a damaging condition, and the damage must exceed the utility’s ability to keep service operating or restore it quickly.
How a Pacific climate pattern can lead to a local outage
The physical pathway is indirect and has several links. El Niño changes atmospheric odds; it does not switch a particular feeder, substation or power plant off.
- ENSO shifts the jet stream. Changes in tropical Pacific heating influence the position and strength of the Pacific jet, which helps guide winter storms and shape broad U.S. temperature and precipitation patterns.
- A local storm creates a hazard. The relevant threat might be heavy wet snow, freezing rain, strong wind, flooding, or a prolonged cold period. The national seasonal pattern does not determine which hazard occurs at a specific address.
- Weather stresses physical equipment. Ice and snow add weight to lines and tree branches. EIA notes that branches, especially when loaded with winter ice or snow, can affect power lines. Wind can break poles or conductors, while flooding and falling trees can damage substations and access roads.
- Cold raises demand. When temperatures fall, households and businesses may use more electricity for heating. A regional cold event can therefore increase the amount of power that must be supplied at the same time equipment is being stressed.
- Supply can become harder to deliver. Generators may fail in extreme conditions, and fuel-delivery systems can be constrained. Natural-gas-fired plants may compete for gas with residential and commercial heating customers when heating demand rises.
- Operators must balance the system. If available generation, transmission capacity and fuel are insufficient, operators may take emergency actions, including controlled interruptions. If equipment is physically damaged, customers may remain without service until crews can inspect, isolate and repair the fault.
Because every link is local, two areas experiencing the same El Niño winter can have very different outage outcomes. One may receive frequent storms but maintain service through redundancy and available crews; another may have a shorter event that causes longer interruptions because of sparse infrastructure or constrained fuel.
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Why El Niño does not guarantee more outages
NOAA’s maps describe expected tendencies over a season, not a deterministic forecast. A typical warmer, drier signal in the northern United States does not rule out an Arctic outbreak. Likewise, a wetter southern tier does not mean every storm will bring damaging wind or ice. The timing of individual storms, soil conditions, tree health, local construction and restoration resources can matter more than the seasonal average.
Outage risk also includes hazards unrelated to the El Niño pattern. A utility may face equipment failures, vegetation contact, accidents or a storm whose track differs from the seasonal tendency. Conversely, a stormier season may produce few customer interruptions if the strongest systems stay offshore or if infrastructure and operating reserves absorb the impacts.
What direct outage evidence shows
The most directly relevant analysis identified here is Spatio-temporal Patterns between ENSO and Weather-related Power Outages in the Continental United States by Long Huo, Xin Chen, Kaiwen Li, Fengying Cai and Jürgen Kurths. The arXiv record shows a June 20, 2024 submission using a 24-year composite and statistical analysis of 2000–2023.
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Its abstract reports higher numbers of weather-related outages during La Niña phases over a broad interval running from developing winter through decaying summer. It also highlights effects in the decaying spring, including extreme precipitation and heatwaves in western and eastern U.S. areas. That result is important because it cautions against turning the atmospheric mechanism into a simple “El Niño equals more outages” rule.
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The study is a preprint, not settled causal proof. Its interval spans several seasons, so it does not provide a validated estimate of El Niño winter outage frequency or duration. The available evidence does not establish a single national effect size, a regional risk multiplier or a statement such as “El Niño doubles winter outage risk.”
What recent grid reports reveal about regional reliability
NERC’s 2025 Winter Reliability Assessment illustrates why the grid outcome depends on operating conditions as well as weather. During January 2025 winter storms, MISO avoided emergency procedures. PJM reached a new winter peak but reported adequate reserves. ERCOT reported no energy emergencies for the region during the previous winter. Those outcomes show that severe weather does not automatically produce a widespread emergency when resources and operations are sufficient.
The same assessment describes a different result during an Arctic outbreak in January 2024: four U.S. Northwest balancing authorities and one Canadian balancing authority experienced energy emergencies, including challenges with evening capacity and energy availability. The contrast demonstrates why geography, event duration, the hour of peak demand and the availability of fuel and generation all matter.
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In a September 11, 2026 statement reviewing winter 2026, NERC said the systems performed strongly with no significant disruption to electric or gas service. It also said extended cold stretched both systems and led operators to call multiple energy emergencies. NERC summarized the lesson as “laudable improved performance” while noting that extreme cold continues to challenge both systems. Good overall performance and serious localized stress can occur at the same time.
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How large are ordinary interruptions and major winter events?
EIA’s 2023 reporting gives a dated baseline: U.S. customers averaged 5.6 hours of interruptions and 1.4 interruptions per customer during calendar year 2022. Those figures describe the 2022 national average; they are not a current forecast and do not isolate El Niño years.
The same EIA material reports that more than 1.5 million customers lost power during Winter Storm Elliott in December 2022. The affected states listed include Texas, Florida, Arkansas, Tennessee, West Virginia and Wisconsin. A single storm can therefore produce a very different experience from a national annual average.
Economic effects can also vary widely. A NOAA Science Council summary of Baik and colleagues’ 2020 work reports survey respondents’ stated willingness to pay about $1.70–$2.30 per kilowatt-hour in 2018 dollars for private low-amperage backup service, or $19–$29 per day for community electricity demand, during a 10-day blackout in very cold weather in the northeastern United States. These are study-specific willingness-to-pay estimates, not equipment prices or a general household cost.
Another NOAA Science Council summary, citing Bhattacharyya and Hastak (2022), estimates approximately $664 million in 2019 dollars in GDP loss associated with the February 2021 Texas severe-winter-storm outage. That is a case-study estimate for that event, not an El Niño cost and not an estimate of all winter-outage damage.
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How to judge risk for your own region
A useful assessment combines climate information with utility and grid conditions instead of relying on the ENSO label alone. Check these five factors:
- Seasonal tendency: Is NOAA’s expected temperature and precipitation pattern for your area wetter, cooler, warmer or drier than average?
- Hazard exposure: Are snow, freezing rain, wind, flooding or prolonged cold the main ways storms threaten local equipment?
- Electric heating load: Would a cold spell sharply increase electricity demand, or do most buildings use another heating fuel?
- Supply and fuel conditions: Can generators obtain fuel, and are transmission paths or generating units already constrained?
- Recent operator performance: What do NERC assessments and your utility’s reliability reports say about reserves, emergency procedures and restoration performance?
NOAA’s seasonal outlook cannot replace a short-range weather forecast, and a NERC regional assessment cannot predict whether one neighborhood will lose power. Use each source for the question it can answer.
Practical preparation without overstating what backup power can do
Household preparation reduces disruption to essential devices; it does not reduce the climate-driven or grid-level probability of an outage.
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- Keep a charged phone, a battery weather radio or another way to receive official updates, and a rechargeable emergency light.
- List medically necessary equipment and identify how it will be powered if service is interrupted. Contact the provider or emergency manager before a storm if a device is life-sustaining.
- A portable power station can supply selected low-power devices, but the cited studies did not test or recommend a particular model. Do not assume it can run whole-home heating, pumps or other high-load equipment, and verify capacity and safe operating instructions before an emergency.
- If using a fuel-powered generator, follow the manufacturer’s placement, ventilation and connection requirements and local emergency guidance. Never improvise a connection to household wiring.
- After an outage, avoid downed lines and follow utility instructions before resetting equipment or returning to areas affected by flooding.
The bottom line
El Niño can raise winter outage exposure in parts of the United States by making certain storm and precipitation patterns more likely, while cold can increase electricity demand and strain generation or fuel systems. But the relationship is indirect, regional and conditional. NOAA’s seasonal tendencies do not predict a specific outage, and the strongest directly relevant outage analysis found higher counts during La Niña over a broad multi-season period. Treat El Niño as one input to a local reliability assessment—not as a national outage forecast.
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