Earth’s magnetic poles move because the planet’s main magnetic field is generated by electrically conducting liquid metal flowing in the outer core. That flow changes, so the field’s strength and shape change too. The resulting long-term change is called geomagnetic secular variation. The North Magnetic Pole has moved irregularly toward Siberia in recent decades, requiring navigation models to be updated. Its drift is not, by itself, evidence that a magnetic reversal is about to happen.
What causes Earth’s magnetic poles to move?
Earth’s main magnetic field is produced deep inside the planet, in the liquid outer core. The core contains electrically conducting iron-rich fluid. Motion in that fluid generates and continually modifies magnetic fields, a process known as the geodynamo. Because the flow is always changing, the magnetic field measured at Earth’s surface is never perfectly fixed.
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USGS describes the resulting long-term change as secular variation. It occurs over timescales ranging from decades to millions of years, differs from one location to another, and can speed up or slow down. A compass therefore responds to a field whose direction and strength evolve rather than to a permanent bar-magnet-like field.
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1Repair Windows errors before they cause bigger problems2Fix the driver behind crashes, sound loss and screen glitches3Clear out junk files and repair common Windows errorsThe broad cause is established: changing convection and other motion in the conducting outer core alter the field. However, the sources used here do not identify one single, precisely mapped core-flow pattern as the sole explanation for the North Pole’s current route. The detailed flow responsible for a particular path remains an active geophysical problem.
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The field is not a simple bar magnet
A textbook dipole is useful for introducing magnetism, but Earth’s field has regional irregularities and changes in shape. The field can be represented mathematically as a combination of global components and smaller-scale features. As those components change, the point where the field is vertical, or the location of an equivalent best-fit dipole, also changes.
This is why a statement such as “the pole moved 40 kilometres” needs a definition, a model and a date. Different legitimate definitions can produce different coordinates for what is casually called “the magnetic pole.”
Magnetic pole and geomagnetic pole are different measurements
NOAA’s National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI) distinguishes the physical magnetic pole from the geomagnetic, or dipole, pole.
| Term | How it is defined | Why its position varies |
|---|---|---|
| North Magnetic Pole | A location where the main field is vertically directed. The vertical-field locations form an oval and show day-to-day variation. | It is derived from the actual, irregular field and therefore responds to changes in regional as well as global field components. |
| Geomagnetic (dipole) pole | The pole of a geocentric dipole calculated from the first three Gauss coefficients of a main-field model such as WMM or IGRF. | It is a model-derived equivalent dipole position, not necessarily the point where the measured field is exactly vertical. |
Both terms are scientifically useful. A news report that does not state which one it means can appear to contradict another report even when both calculations are sound.
Where are the poles in the 2025 model?
NOAA NCEI’s World Magnetic Model (WMM)-based coordinates for 2025 are:
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| Pole | 2025 modeled latitude | 2025 modeled longitude | How to interpret the number |
|---|---|---|---|
| North Magnetic Pole | 85.762°N | 139.298°E | A WMM-based location for the 2025 model epoch; it is not a permanent geographic coordinate. |
| South Magnetic Pole | 63.851°S | 135.078°E | A WMM-based location for the 2025 model epoch; it also changes as the field model changes. |
These coordinates should always be read with “2025 modeled location” attached. They are not fixed landmarks like the geographic North and South Poles, and they should not be used without noting the model and epoch that produced them.
Why has the North Magnetic Pole moved toward Siberia?
The North Magnetic Pole has drifted irregularly toward Siberia over recent decades. Its speed and direction have not been constant: periods of relatively rapid motion can be followed by slower or differently directed movement. That irregularity is expected when the fluid motions generating the field change over time.
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The field at the surface also contains regional features. Changes in one part of the core can alter the field pattern observed thousands of kilometres away, while local crustal magnetism contributes smaller-scale differences. Consequently, the pole’s track is not a smooth line that can be extended reliably with a ruler.
It is important not to overstate the explanation. The evidence supports changing outer-core flow as the physical driver, but the material cited here does not establish one definitive, detailed flow map that accounts for every bend or change in speed along the current trajectory.
How scientists track and predict geomagnetic drift
Global field models
Researchers combine magnetic observations from satellites, observatories and other measurements to estimate the field mathematically. Two commonly referenced model families are the World Magnetic Model (WMM) and the International Geomagnetic Reference Field (IGRF). A reported pole position depends on which model and which definition are used.
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WMM2025’s time window
The British Geological Survey documents WMM2025 as a spherical-harmonic model of degree 12. It represents the main field at epoch 2025.0 and provides an estimate of secular variation for 2025.0 through 2030.0. “Epoch 2025.0” means the model is referenced to the beginning of 2025, not that its coordinates remain valid indefinitely.
The WMM is revised on a five-year cycle. NOAA and the British Geological Survey update it because navigation systems need a current estimate of magnetic direction and declination. In NOAA NCEI’s 2025 annual-report announcement, observed pole locations and speeds were reported to be very close to the predictions made by WMM2025 and its higher-resolution WMMHR2025 counterpart.
“We know the Earth’s magnetic field is constantly changing,” said Stephen Volz, Ph.D., assistant NOAA administrator for NOAA’s Satellite and Information Service.
That sentence appeared in NOAA’s release announcing the World Magnetic Model update. The title and role belong to that publication context; they should not be read as a claim about a later job title.
What geomagnetic secular variation means for navigation
A compass aligns with the local magnetic field, not with geographic north. The angle between magnetic north and true geographic north is called magnetic declination, and it varies with both location and time. As the field changes, the declination for a given place changes as well.
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For casual orientation, a small change may not matter. For surveying, aviation, marine navigation, mapping, drilling and other work that depends on accurate bearings, it matters enough to use a current field model. WMM updates allow software and navigation equipment to calculate a more appropriate magnetic direction for a particular place and date.
Using a compass responsibly
- Identify your exact operating location. Declination can differ substantially between regions.
- Check the date and validity period of the declination reference or magnetic model used by your map, instrument or app.
- Set the instrument’s east-or-west declination correction when the equipment supports it. An adjustable-declination compass is designed for this purpose.
- Keep the compass away from vehicles, speakers, steel structures, power equipment and other local magnetic sources that can distort a reading.
- For high-accuracy work, use the applicable current model rather than an old printed declination value.
Pole drift does not make satellite positioning suddenly stop working. GPS and other global navigation satellite systems calculate position from radio signals and timing; magnetic models are used when a system needs to convert between magnetic and geographic directions.
How to compare two reports about a moving pole
When two articles give different coordinates or speeds, check three things before concluding that one is wrong.
| Check | Question to ask | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Definition | Does the report mean the North Magnetic Pole (vertical-field location) or a geomagnetic dipole pole? | Those are related but distinct quantities. |
| Model | Was the value calculated with WMM, IGRF or another field model? | Different models use different coefficients, resolutions and update procedures. |
| Epoch or date | What year or model epoch does the coordinate represent? | A position from one epoch is not a timeless location; secular variation changes it. |
| Geographic context | Is the statement about a global pole position or a local compass direction? | Local declination and crustal anomalies can differ from the global pole’s movement. |
This checklist also explains why a model can be accurate while a later observation differs slightly: the field continues changing between model updates, and measurements have uncertainty.
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No. Secular variation and a geomagnetic reversal are different phenomena. Secular variation is the ordinary, ongoing change in field strength, direction and spatial pattern. A reversal is a much larger reorganization in which the field’s dominant polarity changes over geological time.
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NOAA NCEI’s historical material distinguishes drift from reversals, and its short-term assessment says that a pole flip has no short-term environmental change or threat to life. Present-day movement therefore should not be converted into a prediction that a reversal is about to occur.
A moving pole is an important observation for geophysics and navigation, but it is not a countdown clock. The current evidence supports updating field models, not announcing an imminent flip.
What remains uncertain about the current path?
Scientists can measure the field and model its evolution without having a complete, direct picture of every fluid motion in the outer core. The core is inaccessible to sampling, and observations at Earth’s surface are an indirect window into processes thousands of kilometres below.
Models capture the large-scale field and forecast its expected secular variation, but forecasts have a defined interval and are revised as new observations arrive. WMM2025’s stated forecast interval is 2025.0–2030.0; using its coordinates as though they describe the 2040s or remain exact forever would exceed what the model claims.
The practical conclusion is precise rather than dramatic: Earth’s field is dynamic, the North Magnetic Pole’s recent motion is real and irregular, and the detailed combination of core-flow processes producing its exact route is still being refined.
Quick Recap
Key takeaways
- Moving electrically conducting fluid in the liquid outer core generates Earth’s main magnetic field.
- Changes in that flow produce geomagnetic secular variation across timescales from decades to millions of years.
- “North Magnetic Pole” and “geomagnetic pole” refer to different, though related, calculations.
- NOAA’s 2025 WMM-based locations are 85.762°N, 139.298°E for the North Magnetic Pole and 63.851°S, 135.078°E for the South Magnetic Pole.
- WMM2025 is referenced to epoch 2025.0, forecasts secular variation through 2030.0 and is part of a five-year revision cycle.
- Pole drift changes magnetic declination and matters for accurate bearings, but it does not by itself show that a reversal is imminent.
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