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A free scan shows the junk files, broken settings and background clutter dragging Windows down - then fixes them in one click.Free scan · Windows 10 & 11Brent’s fall below $100 a barrel did not mean oil supply had returned to normal. The latest sub-$100 figure in the available reporting is a $96.16-per-barrel settlement on September 29, 2026, reported by the Associated Press (AP). Prices were being pulled in opposite directions: severe Gulf supply losses and shrinking inventories pushed upward, while rerouted exports, added production elsewhere, weaker demand and emergency stock releases helped contain the pressure.
What the sub-$100 Brent report actually measured
AP reported that Brent futures settled at $96.16 per barrel on September 29, 2026, down 1.7% that day. The price had briefly moved above $100 earlier in the week. AP also said it remained well above the roughly $72 level before the United States and Israel attacked Iran in late February.
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This is a dated settlement, not a live quote or a statement about Brent’s price on October 2. A separate AP report said Brent futures briefly traded below $98 intraday on September 22 and then settled at $99.25 per barrel, down 1.1%; the benchmark had touched nearly $110 the previous week. The two reports show how quickly the market moved around the $100 mark.
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1Clear out junk files and repair common Windows errors2Scan for outdated or missing drivers - takes under a minute3Repair Windows errors before they cause bigger problemsOther figures from the same period describe different benchmarks or time windows. They help explain the market, but should not be treated as interchangeable Brent observations:
#1 Best Overall
| Measure | Reported value | What it represents |
|---|---|---|
| Brent futures settlement, September 29, 2026 | $96.16 per barrel (AP) | End-of-session settlement after Brent briefly rose above $100 earlier that week. |
| Brent futures settlement, September 22, 2026 | $99.25 per barrel (AP) | Settlement following an intraday dip below $98. |
| North Sea Dated average, August 2026 | $91.00 per barrel (IEA) | A monthly average for a physical crude-price assessment, not a futures settlement. |
| North Sea Dated, September 9, 2026 | $113.48 per barrel (IEA) | A dated price observation during a sharp market surge, not a monthly average. |
| Brent spot average, August 2026 | $91 per barrel (EIA) | A monthly spot-price average reported by the U.S. Energy Information Administration. |
| Brent spot, second-half 2026 forecast | Around $90 per barrel on average (EIA, September 9 outlook) | A forecast conditional on the EIA’s assumptions, not an observed price. |
Futures, spot assessments and physical cargo prices reflect related but distinct parts of the oil market. A futures settlement on one day cannot establish what buyers paid for every physical cargo, and neither figure is a refined-fuel price.
Why prices could fall even while supply remained disrupted
Oil prices respond to the balance between barrels available and barrels buyers want—not simply to a count of disrupted production. Lost Gulf supply was a major upward force, but other changes partly offset it. Those offsets limited the pressure on the benchmark without restoring normal supply conditions.
Some exports used routes that bypass the Strait of Hormuz
The International Energy Agency (IEA) reported that Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates increased exports through routes bypassing Hormuz from 4.1 million barrels per day in February to a high of 7.8 million in June. Attacks reduced those flows to 5.5 million barrels per day in August. The change shows both the value and the limits of rerouting: it moved some oil around the chokepoint, but the alternative flows were vulnerable too.
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According to the IEA’s September 2026 report, producers outside the Gulf added a cumulative 420 million barrels—equivalent to an average 2.3 million barrels per day—since the war began. Reuters’ September 8 explainer also pointed to higher production from the United States, Canada and Guyana. Replacement supply did not erase the Gulf shortfall, but it meant the disruption was not the only change affecting the amount of oil available globally.
Demand weakened as prices, shortages and activity changed
The IEA estimated that global oil demand during the six months covered by its September analysis averaged 5.8 million barrels per day below February levels. Higher prices, shortages and reduced activity contributed to the decline. Reuters also described weaker demand, including lower Chinese seaborne imports. When buyers use less oil, lost supply can be partly offset by lower consumption, easing the upward pressure on a benchmark even as the market remains tight.
Stocks helped bridge the gap, but inventories shrank
The IEA reported that observed inventories fell by a further 95 million barrels in August. Cumulative observed draws since February reached 507 million barrels, an average of 2.8 million barrels per day. IEA member countries had also released more than 300 million barrels from emergency stocks. Those releases added oil to the market temporarily; they did not replace ongoing production indefinitely. The large inventory draw is evidence that the balance remained strained even when benchmark prices moved below $100.
The disruption was severe, even when Brent settled below $100
The IEA reported that global oil production fell by 1.6 million barrels per day month on month to 100.1 million barrels per day in August 2026. More than 10 million barrels per day of Gulf output remained shut in during August amid heightened security risks.
These figures describe shut-in production, not a direct count of exports that would otherwise have reached buyers. Actual market effects also depend on what was shipped through alternative routes, production added elsewhere, stock releases and demand reductions. Gross losses therefore cannot be read as an equal-sized decline in oil available to consumers.
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The IEA’s September report said North Sea Dated averaged $91.00 per barrel in August, then rose to $113.48 per barrel on September 9. It linked the price strength to Middle East and Russian disruptions and to demand shifting toward Atlantic Basin barrels. This contrast with the later AP settlement illustrates that a volatile market can register sharp price spikes and sub-$100 settlements within a short period, depending on the date and measure being discussed.
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IEA: lower annual supply and demand forecasts, with recovery delayed
The IEA forecast 2026 global oil supply at 100.7 million barrels per day, 5.7 million barrels per day lower than its prior comparison, and forecast global demand down 2.5 million barrels per day for the year. It said full recovery from Middle East producers was deferred until 2027. These are forecasts, not completed-year results; they do not imply that disrupted production had already recovered or that the same price would hold throughout 2026.
EIA: a second-half Brent spot average near $90, conditional on its assumptions
In its September 9, 2026 Short-Term Energy Outlook, the U.S. Energy Information Administration forecast Brent spot to average around $90 per barrel in the second half of 2026. The outlook assumed continued disruption followed by recovery in exports and shut-in production, which would put downward pressure on prices. EIA warned that changes in flows through Hormuz and alternative routes could make short-term prices more volatile than its forecast suggested. The forecast was completed on September 3; the next release was scheduled for October 6.
Quick Recap
How to read the next Brent headline
- Check the date and price type. An intraday low, daily settlement, monthly average and forecast answer different questions.
- Check the benchmark. Brent futures, Brent spot and North Sea Dated are related measures, not identical readings.
- Separate production from shipments. Shut-in output is not the same as oil actually prevented from reaching buyers; rerouting and replacement production matter.
- Look beyond the benchmark. Futures can move differently from tighter physical cargo markets, as Reuters noted in its September 8 explainer.
- Read forecasts as conditional. An assumed recovery path can support a lower average-price forecast even while near-term security risks keep prices volatile.
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