Australia can record more housing approvals and still miss its National Housing Accord target because permission to build is only an early step: projects must still secure finance, remain viable and make it through construction before they count as completed homes. The latest fully verifiable national Council forecast, based on data to early 2026, put gross construction over the Accord period at 980,000 homes—short of the 1.2 million target—and projected the target would be reached around September 2030, about 15 months after its June 2029 deadline.
What is the housing target, and how far behind is the forecast?
The National Housing Accord sets a target of 1.2 million new homes over the five years to June 2029. It is a gross construction target agreed by all levels of government. Gross completions count homes built; net new supply also accounts for dwellings removed from the housing stock. Those measures answer different questions and should not be treated as interchangeable.
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In State of the Housing System 2026, published on 30 April 2026, the National Housing Supply and Affordability Council estimated that 980,000 gross dwellings would be built during the Accord period. Its early-2026 outlook projected that the cumulative 1.2 million target would be reached in September 2030. This was a forecast, not a final count, and it predates later global disruptions.
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A free scan shows the junk files, broken settings and background clutter dragging Windows down - then fixes them in one click.Free scan · Windows 10 & 11The Council also estimated 862,000 net new dwellings against demand of 900,000 over the Accord period: a projected net gap of 37,000. That net-supply estimate is not the same measure as the 980,000 gross construction forecast.
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There is later reporting, but it should be distinguished from that dated Council outlook. On 21 August 2026, ABC News reported that the outlook had worsened to the end of 2030 and that a later forecast put NSW’s target-share date at March 2032. ABC also reported a Master Builders Australia estimate of a 204,000-home shortfall. The latter is an industry estimate, not a Council forecast. The full 2 October 2026 article matching this topic is not available here, so its headline alone cannot establish a newer official figure or a separate cause.
Why approvals do not equal completed homes
An approval is permission to proceed, not proof that a project has started, secured funding, or delivered a home. Between approval and completion, a project can be delayed, redesigned or abandoned. That is why approvals are useful as an early pipeline indicator, but cannot be counted as finished supply.
The reporting windows also differ. In the Council’s March 2026 quarterly report, approvals data ran to January 2026, while completions data ran only to the September 2025 quarter. A rise in approvals therefore does not tell readers how many of those homes have since been completed.
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For its forecast, the Council used leading indicators and historical housing-market dynamics rather than assuming the recent construction rate would continue unchanged. The forecast can move as pipeline conditions change; an approval count alone cannot show whether the outlook has improved.
How much supply was delivered against demand?
The Council’s April 2026 report compared completed supply with estimated underlying demand for the first 18 months of the Accord period. Its figures show why the gross number of builds and the net addition to housing stock both matter.
| Measure, first 18 months of the Accord | Council estimate | What it counts |
|---|---|---|
| Gross completions | About 263,000 | Dwellings completed, before accounting for removals from the stock |
| Net new completions | About 232,000 | Completed dwellings after accounting for homes removed from the stock |
| Underlying housing demand | About 287,000 | Estimated demand over the same 18-month period |
These are Council estimates for the period, not a current live count. Comparing net completions with demand gives a clearer picture of whether housing stock is keeping pace than comparing approvals with the national target.
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What does “doesn’t stack up” mean for a housing project?
A project’s financial feasibility depends on whether its expected selling or rental returns cover land, finance, construction and other costs at a level that justifies the risk. If that calculation stops working, a developer may delay the project, redesign it or decide not to proceed. An approval can remain in the pipeline without becoming a completed home.
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Fix the driver behind crashes, sound loss and screen glitchesFind Drivers →Clear out junk files and repair common Windows errorsFree Scan →Scan for outdated or missing drivers - takes under a minuteDriver Scan →In an ABC News report published on 21 August 2026, Master Builders Australia chief executive Denita Wawn said: “Demand for homes hasn’t disappeared; the problem is that too many projects no longer stack up financially.” That is an industry assessment of the problem, rather than a conclusion attributed to the Council.
The Council identifies labour availability and productivity, land availability, planning and land-use approval systems, and coordination across levels of government as constraints on supply. It says higher-density developments tend to be large, complex and time-consuming, leaving them exposed to input-cost changes and labour availability. Labour constraints and elevated insolvencies have contributed to longer delivery times and higher risk premiums in tenders for complex projects.
Construction-cost estimates in the Council’s 2026 report illustrate one part of the challenge: for 2024–25, it estimated costs of $4,500 per square metre for apartments, $2,500 for townhouses and $2,000 for detached houses. These are construction-cost estimates, not complete comparisons of project feasibility; they exclude land and landscaping.
How cost shocks could affect future supply
The Council modelled two illustrative construction-cost scenarios. Treasury’s 1 May 2026 government release summarized them as possible reductions in supply by mid-2029; they are scenario estimates, not homes already lost.
| Illustrative scenario | Estimated effect on homes | How to read it |
|---|---|---|
| Shorter construction-cost shock | About 10,000 fewer homes | Modelled reduction over the Accord period, not an observed count |
| Prolonged construction-cost shock | About 33,000 fewer homes | Modelled reduction over the Accord period, not an observed count |
Why the state and territory outlooks differ
The Council’s March 2026 quarterly snapshot forecast different dates for jurisdictions to reach their respective shares of the national target. These are forecast dates from that report, not evidence that a state or territory actually met its share then.
| Jurisdiction | Council forecast date to reach its target share |
|---|---|
| Victoria | September 2029 |
| Western Australia | September 2029 |
| New South Wales | June 2031 |
| Tasmania | September 2033 |
| Northern Territory | After 2034 |
The report’s jurisdictional results also depend in part on the mix of detached and higher-density dwellings. A single national figure can therefore conceal different delivery paths and project constraints across places.
What to look at when judging whether the gap is closing
- Completions, not approvals alone: completions show homes delivered; approvals indicate an earlier point in the pipeline.
- Gross and net figures separately: gross construction measures homes built, while net new supply accounts for dwellings removed.
- The period and cutoff: Council forecasts published in March and April 2026 rely on data with different end dates, and the annual outlook uses data to early 2026.
- Forecasts versus outcomes: a projected date or modelled cost-shock effect is not a final tally.
- Who made the estimate: Council projections, Treasury summaries and industry estimates are not interchangeable.
Those distinctions explain how approvals can rise without erasing the delivery gap: the homes still have to pass through a constrained, costly and time-consuming construction pipeline.
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