The vast opening in Antarctica’s winter sea ice was the Maud Rise polynya, an open-ocean patch of water in the Weddell Sea. It formed through a combination of ocean heat, winds that pushed ice apart, and salt transport that helped keep the surface ocean mixing. No single storm explains the whole event: ocean conditions helped prepare the ice for months, winds helped open the gap, and ocean circulation helped it persist.
What is the Maud Rise polynya?
A polynya is an area of open water surrounded by sea ice. The Maud Rise polynya formed within the Antarctic winter ice pack, near Maud Rise, a seafloor feature in the Weddell Sea. That makes it an open-ocean polynya, not a coastal opening maintained simply by winds pushing ice away from shore. NASA’s Terra/MODIS image captured the opening on 25 September 2017. NASA Earth Observatory describes the location and image.
The event’s size depends on which date and measurement are being described. NASA reported that the 2017 opening grew from 9,500 km² in mid-September to about 80,000 km² by late October. A 2022 study describes maximum extents of over 50,000 km² for the 2016 and 2017 events. Those figures should not be treated as identical measurements: they come from different accounts and may reflect different dates, event windows, or measurement definitions. The consulted sources do not establish an exact Portugal-equivalent area.
How did the opening form and stay open?
The explanation has three linked stages: ocean and ice conditions built up before the opening, cyclonic winds helped separate the ice, and salt supplied to the surface helped sustain the mixing that carried heat upward.
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1. Ocean heat thinned the ice beforehand
Satellite analysis by Zhou and colleagues found anomalous thinning in early winter, as much as four months before an opening. Their study links that thinning mainly to ocean thermodynamic forcing, assisted by wind, and reports comparatively warm, salty upper-ocean conditions in polynya years. It identifies entrainment—the mixing of water from below into the surface layer—as the primary way extra heat entered the mixed layer during the two recent events. In practical terms, the ice was already thinner and the ocean better positioned to deliver heat before the large gap became visible. Zhou et al., “Early Winter Triggering of the Maud Rise Polynya” (2022).
2. Cyclonic winds moved ice apart
Winds around a cyclone can drive sea ice in different directions around the storm’s center, opening water between floes. Diana Francis, the scientist who led the cited cyclone study, described the mechanism as cyclonic winds dragging floating ice in opposite directions around the center. This helps explain the opening, but not by itself why a large area remained open in winter.
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3. Seafloor topography and currents brought heat upward
Maud Rise’s underwater topography interacts with currents in the Weddell Gyre, a large circulation system in the Weddell Sea. The 2024 account from the University of Gothenburg describes a stronger gyre and ocean currents that helped bring comparatively warm, salty deep water upward. Fabien Roquet, professor of physical oceanography at the university, said the event involved the seafloor’s geography and unusually strong winds producing currents that transported heat and salt toward the surface. The University of Gothenburg’s 2 May 2024 summary discusses the findings of a study published in Science Advances on 1 May 2024.
4. Salt helped sustain mixing after ice melted
There is a stabilizing effect that makes persistence a separate problem from opening: when ice melts, it adds fresh water to the surface, which can make the surface layer less likely to mix with the saltier water below. The 2024 study identifies a salt-transport pathway that helped counter this. Turbulent eddies moved salt onto the top of Maud Rise, and wind-driven Ekman transport helped carry it to the northern flank, where the polynya first formed. That salt helped sustain mixing and the upward transfer of heat, making it harder for the surface to settle into a stable, fresh layer.
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Why 2017 was larger and longer-lived than 2016
NASA’s account describes the 2016 opening as small and short-lived, following a cyclone. In 2017, atmospheric heat transport was stronger and more consistent, while cyclones were more frequent and intense. Together, those conditions helped produce a larger opening and keep it open longer. The comparison shows why it is misleading to describe the 2017 polynya as simply a hole punched by one storm.
| Event | What the sources report | How to interpret it |
|---|---|---|
| 2016 | NASA describes a small, short-lived opening preceded by a cyclone; an event area is not stated in the NASA account. | A cyclone can help initiate ice divergence, but this event did not persist like 2017. |
| 2017 | NASA reports growth from 9,500 km² in mid-September to about 80,000 km² by late October. | The date and source matter: this is NASA’s reported late-October area, not a universal maximum for every study definition. |
| 2016 and 2017 together | Zhou et al. report maximum extents over 50,000 km² for both events. | This study’s framing differs from NASA’s 2017 late-October figure; the values are not directly interchangeable. |
What the event does—and does not—tell us about climate
Polynyas expose ocean water to the atmosphere, enabling exchanges of heat and gases that sea ice otherwise limits. Dense water formed in the region can also spread into the wider ocean. These are meaningful processes, but the cited accounts do not quantify a global climate effect attributable to this particular opening, or a net carbon-removal effect.
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Nor do the cited studies establish that global warming directly caused this specific hole to form. They explain the event through interacting local ocean circulation, seafloor topography, sea-ice conditions, and atmospheric forcing. The account is an explanation of the Maud Rise events, not a current report on Antarctic sea-ice extent.
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